dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 In the fwiw dept, 09z SREFS is a couple tics west of the 03z run, Not as juiced as the 03z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Liking how guidance has trended completely away from that double qpf max; one near the SE/Mid Atlantic and the second near eastern SNE. We lost the former, and now see a steady increase in the qpf amounts as the system intensifies with latitude. Everything coming together in the end to look like a bonafide mega Nor Easter passing just east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thats a great look Hoth but need OceanWaves to analyze it.....and hes sleeping. Expand Yeah I'm sure he was a busy boy last night. Found this little tidbit from a NWS discussion down south: "As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:25 PM, dryslot said: In the fwiw dept, 09z SREFS is a couple tics west of the 03z run. Expand Dog or Deer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:28 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Dog or Deer? Expand Deer, Better get it checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi res RGEM and 3km NAM both have coastal Cumberland county stuck between dual axis bands. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:20 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My fave ARW2 is a pounding for everyone up to Freaky.What are the ARW models exactly and how reliable are they?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:36 PM, WintersComing said: What are the ARW models exactly and how reliable are they? . Expand Nam cores. Just another tool, not to be used in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:37 PM, JC-CT said: Nam cores. Just another tool, not to be used in a vacuum. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Check out this look at 250 mb. Can really see how this thing intensifies so quickly. Great venting to the north. Upper divergence perhaps implies wider precip shield? Not sure which is more important, tightly wrapped core or upper level stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:36 PM, WintersComing said: What are the ARW models exactly and how reliable are they? . Expand Not much but when west folks need a crutch, we lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:19 PM, Hoth said: Maybe this is weenie goggles, but does this look like it's going neg-tilt early? Expand Use the spc mesoanalysis page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:28 PM, Hoth said: Yeah I'm sure he was a busy boy last night. Found this little tidbit from a NWS discussion down south: "As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models." Expand This has been on a relentless trend to Deepen early, i guess this can deepen to 930 near key largo And still somehow Crush us with strengthening mid levels /we kid or do do we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:39 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not much but when west folks need a crutch, we lean. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Most important NAM run of our lives is now running. Let the 12z runs begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 SREF's catch a lot of justified criticism for late stage caves. I'm one of those critics. The 9z run was about that time you'd start to expect a cave, so I do take it quite positively that it doubled down by being slightly west of its previous run so late in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:44 PM, JC-CT said: Expand should come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:44 PM, JC-CT said: Expand East tickle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:47 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: East tickle? Expand the ridge out west looks better imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Initial hunch on the 12z Nam is it will be at least slightly west of 6z based on PNA ridge further west and more amped and south stream shortwave slightly more negative, with better cross-stream interaction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 3:33 AM, OceanStWx said: Actually the average consumer of weather information doesn't know the difference between a watch and a warning, and generally think all snowstorms are blizzards. And our watch/warning products are probably some of our most plain language products we have now. What, where, when, and additional details. I also don't think we live in a world anymore where we'll be the first word on a storm. Most people are going to hear about it long before we issue a watch for it. Expand ha ha ha... This is funny ... the frustration embedded in those words is filthy - it's like .. why the f bother, right? the world is already an 'Idiocrasy' (tremendous visionary cinema...) ... they should just have three categories: annoying, damn it, ...buy milk... everyone just sort of symbolically gets it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 barring something funky this should be another huge hit. More considlated with the vorts should ‘scoop’ this at a better angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I like seeing the SS getting more robust each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:53 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: barring something funky this should be another huge hit. More considlated with the vorts should ‘scoop’ this at a better angle. Expand Phase seems cleaner than 6z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here are the 09z SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam a little more messy with the southern s/w, Does not know if it wants to focus the slp near the coast or the one to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:47 PM, Bostonseminole said: should come west? Expand On 1/3/2018 at 1:47 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: East tickle? Expand Lol no idea. Probably east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Stick with Reggie and euro from this point forward. Caveat-if NAM gives me the most snow-revisit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 1:57 PM, dryslot said: Nam a little more messy with the southern s/w, Does not know if it wants to focus the slp near the coast or the one to the east. Expand That's how I see it. Convection again. You can see dual lows fighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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