TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6z rgem made a huge jump too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Shouldn't really make a big diff precip type wise on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GFS track hasn’t been awful but my goodness is it atrocious on QPF in so many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 9:58 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS track hasn’t been awful but my goodness is it atrocious on QPF in so many areas Expand rgem looks like a super reasonable look imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 9:51 AM, sbos_wx said: 6z rgem made a huge jump too Expand Made a huge jump how..West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 10:01 AM, WinterWolf said: Made a huge jump how..West? Expand It's further tucked in and has a ton more qpf. Nice mid level band over ORH to Tolland and heavy snow anywhere on east. Snow for everyone. It's definitely not NAM crazy, but way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yes I was saying last night the snowfall distribution on some the modeling just seemed off for something like this...so I agree the RGEM does seem much more reasonable as well. Thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Save a horse. That’s a crushing overeastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Several models show the surface getting little warm in my area. Not sure if I will have any mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That's a pretty deep PV anomaly skirting the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some serious subsidence behind it, even at the highest level WV product. And the ozone products confirm there is a little stratospheric air in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Local Boston affiliates ABC/NBC/CBS all have max snowfall around and just South of Boston. General 10-15”+ from all 3. Ch 7 12-16” Ch 5 10-15” Ch 4 12”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Riding Harvey’s numbers for mby. Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 And, dammit! I’m 1mi from my effing blizzard warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 10:48 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: And, dammit! I’m 1mi from my effing blizzard warning! Expand No blizzard for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So definitely would not shock me if the global’s tickke west again today. They did stabilize overnight but this is a pretty anomalous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 10:52 AM, CoastalWx said: So definitely would not shock me if the global’s tickke west again today. They did stabilize overnight but this is a pretty anomalous system. Expand That PV anomaly has my attention. That's going to light off some serious convection in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 10:41 AM, OceanStWx said: That's a pretty deep PV anomaly skirting the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some serious subsidence behind it, even at the highest level WV product. And the ozone products confirm there is a little stratospheric air in there. Expand How would the PV (polar vortex?) anomaly affect our low in the Bahamas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 10:50 AM, NorEastermass128 said: No blizzard for you! Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 9:20 AM, sbos_wx said: Hmm, there's a couple different ones to choose from. I'd defer to some of our South Shore posters but closest to Boston is Nantasket/Hull Expand Anywhere along Atlantic Ave or Nantasket Blvd. In Hull. If you can get to end of Forest Ave in Cohasset to Black Rock Beach that will be an impressive scene but parking there is problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 10:54 AM, WaPo said: How would the PV (polar vortex?) anomaly affect our low in the Bahamas? Expand Potential vorticity. It will act to induce cyclonic circulation on the mid levels. At the same time convection developing off Florida will create a low level PV anomaly that will induce further cyclonic circulation in the mid levels. When these two sync up is when this low is going to really start to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow...overnights bumped a lot of precipitation back out weest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GYX at 4 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM is prob tossed. It always tends to have a run that is way further west than other guidance inside 36 hours. Would want to see the rgem jump on board before considering that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 10:59 AM, OceanStWx said: Potential vorticity. It will act to induce cyclonic circulation on the mid levels. At the same time convection developing off Florida will create a low level PV anomaly that will induce further cyclonic circulation in the mid levels. When these two sync up is when this low is going to really start to strengthen. Expand Gotcha. So, the PV could make the low strengthen faster and further to the west than what the globals have predicted; giving the storm more time to deepen, and more of an opportunity for it to phase in with the GL Kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 11:06 AM, WthrJunkyME said: Expand If the 6z 3km were to verify, okx will get hanged in times square by the angry mob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 While ordinarily I'd be focused on the op runs at this point, with systems that have been steadily shfiting, I think it's helpful to put more weight on the ensmebles than might otherwise be the case. As such, the GEFS look clustered west of the mean which would suggest to me that the trend is not yet done. I'm not sure how the spread on the EPS looked. Either way, lol at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4-6 inches of snow expected for my area i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 6:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z EURO matches my first call map perfectly now...deform from ORH to KEV. Expand Mid level deform band. Whomever ends up under that is the 18-22" winner. Might be a narrow zone somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM going with ridiculous snow total amounts for my area. Yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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