OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 i didn't think the 00z reg looked too different from the 12z euro for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What a maddening storm. But that storm too remember had a very low pressure and I think after many wondered if b/c of that the precipitation was more band-like as opposed to a shield of widespread precipitation. (I mentioned this in my blog post). That would really complicate things b/c you'll have bands of heavy snows but then in between you'll suck on subsidence like a cheap cigar. Radar was definitely shredded for a period. As Ryan will attest too, it was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Perhaps insane winds could? But I think dendrites are held together well. Then tend to go with the wind. Might be some good chem bonding keeping them together? yeah I would have to think they do hold together quite well and it probably would have to take some pretty damn strong winds to rip them apart. This would be a really interesting study..could probably compose a class off of this type of stuff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Man, RGEM hit coastal Maine with two killer bands. The one at HR 48 looks like the best of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 rgem is east but it has not been good this season. It’s status as the go to SRM has quickly faded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: So it looks like the GFS Bufkit files are not accumulating precipitation correctly. Meaning all snowfall estimates are wrong as well. And the problem may have started in July () when they upgraded the GFS. Make GFS Great Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wrong Was a little further west early n and then went little bit east later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trying to wrap my flu infused mind around a 948. I remember Messenger and I tracking a 952 through the Gulf if Maine knocking buoys offline one by one. I think the SNE non tropical record is 954 at ACK in 1922 or 23. Obviously being so far offshore we are looking at 960 ish on land but wow. 850 inflow and convergence is so sick on these 0Z models so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Radar was definitely shredded for a period. As Ryan will attest too, it was awful. It would snow pretty well for a little bit and then go to tiny flakes...and then it was rinse and repeat. I would think we see a similar situation here? I mean isn't one of the biggest reasons why precipitation within tropical storms and hurricanes bandy b/c of the pressure gradient and low pressures? My knowledge of tropical meteorology is pretty weak unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is wham bam thank you m’am. Quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Conv messing around with the models I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: rgem is east but it has not been good this season. It’s status as the go to SRM has quickly faded. After going back and read thru this thread today, I think every model has been tossed in one run or another...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rgem gets down to 946mb by maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Convective feedback still pulling storm to far east. But every run it closer to coast farther up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: RGEM is wham bam thank you m’am. Quick hitter. It destroys DE Maine...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, bboughton said: The last minute changes to this storm track and the lack of a Blizzard Watch are going to cause people on Eastern MA to not take this as seriously as they should. What was the rationale for doing away with Blizzard watch? I think the rationale is that it is still a winter storm. If you are preparing for a winter storm it could contain all hazards including ice or wind/snow combination. So you just have to read the winter storm watch text now. If we are thinking blizzard conditions, it will say blizzard conditions possible. And blizzard warnings still exist, so there will still be a differentiation at go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Conv messing around with the models I think. Just now, tim123 said: Convective feedback still pulling storm to far east. But every run it closer to coast farther up the coast Both of these seem to be the case. It’s jumping out for no apparent reason...very odd if it’s not the convective feedback phenomenon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAVGEM for whats its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Both of these seem to be the case. It’s jumping out for no apparent reason...very odd if it’s not the convective feedback phenomenon.. It could be right, but I am stating why we are seeing some jumpy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think part of the problem too with the "jump" is that the forecasts for the low are so strong and deep and there are so many tightly contours its almost impossible for the models to pinpoint exactly where the center is...or what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Convective feedback still pulling storm to far east. But every run it closer to coast farther up the coast The RGEM has been doing that almost every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Man, RGEM hit coastal Maine with two killer bands. The one at HR 48 looks like the best of the bunch. Even the GFS would smoke Pit2 with a nasty band of snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: I think the rationale is that it is still a winter storm. If you are preparing for a winter storm it could contain all hazards including ice or wind/snow combination. So you just have to read the winter storm watch text now. If we are thinking blizzard conditions, it will say blizzard conditions possible. And blizzard warnings still exist, so there will still be a differentiation at go time. I think the average consumer of weather is not reading the somewhat jargon-y text of the warnings and most know a WSW as a moderate snowstorm and a Blizzard as a dangerous snow storm regardless of actual criteria met. Blizzard warnings will be w/in 24 hours here. Doesn’t provide a lot of notice. Especially when your average consumer does not even know about this change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can someone post the RGEM clownage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Even the GFS would smoke Pit2 with a nasty band of snow verbatim. Maine's cashing in no matter what model you look at. Jeff, Weatherjunky cleaning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 gfs initialized with a stronger n vort with a tick better troughing compared to its 18z 6hr look at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I could totally see the rgem scenario. A lot more reasonable than 2.5" of QPF over MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can someone post the RGEM clownage? Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can someone post the RGEM clownage? http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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