WeatherNurse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:50 AM, dryslot said: They will do better then that up there. Expand Sure hope so! GYX precip map has us in the 7" range, but any wiggle west will help us!! I don't know how to access all the fancy products you guys have so I was hoping someone could have a look! Typically anything west of Crawford Notch gets shafted with these coast huggers but Wildcat/Sunday River/Sugarloaf do well. 7" seems low for my intuition, just wondering what the actual science is hinting towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is looking like one hell of a storm. The Boston area just to the southwest to the immediate Northshore looks to get burried big time in snow by the looks of what is starting to take shape now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:49 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There isnt anything i see in the upper levels doing this, aka a kicker. Expand Which leads me to discount it some. A 130 miles east or so in 3 hours seems...off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any thundersnow possibilities with this in eastern NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:54 AM, Hoth said: Which leads me to discount it some. Expand That would give Kevin a rise....put him back into the highest band perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:54 AM, Greg said: This is looking like one hell of a storm. Boston area to just southwest to immediate north shore looks to get burried in snow by the looks of what is starting to take shape now. Expand Yes. There is going to be an area in central NE that won't be modeled, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:54 AM, Greg said: This is looking like one hell of a storm. Boston area to just southwest to immediate north shore looks to get burried in snow by the looks of what is starting to take shape now. Expand This will be big in eastern New England. You could take it to the bank days ago. Going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:55 AM, Cyclone-68 said: Any thundersnow possibilities with this in eastern NE? Expand I would sure as hell think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:53 AM, jlauderdal said: We see the gfs driving hurricanes through ridges and we know thats impossible so its solutions are discounted regularly...as long as the 3k nam has a big hit it will have friends the in this thread, lol Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Expand lol, The snowiest models get hugged, And the rest are tossed, In all seriousness, The RGEM/Euro have been a good combo up here with some weight on the GFS with its known bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 When is the RGEM available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Will businesses usually close with 20 inches OTG in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:47 AM, CT Rain said: Went from about 25" imby to 3" from 21z to 00z. Expand Is that the same model as the IBM Thunder Weenie or whatever it was named? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have never seen anything like this...at the risk of hyperbole, I was really trying to articulate that in my blog....I mean, 94mb pressure gradient? Yikes....like, and then James woke up and washed his sheets. I would have been ashamed to suggest that as possible. This could do some strange, Dec 23, 1997 like things that are going to just violate a lot of forecasts. Expand Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:56 AM, moneypitmike said: That would give Kevin a rise....put him back into the highest band perhaps. Expand I think you are gonna see a deform band setup from Boston area back down through central or eastern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:57 AM, CoastalWx said: I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. Expand You're a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah RPM is doing the RPM thing, wild swings with each run, here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 more runs of the NAM before onset. It can't get any better than this run for many, but it can get worse, so keep those emotions in check. As bad as the NAM may be, we are closer to its wheelhouse now, so that's a big plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:58 AM, ajisai said: Will businesses usually close with 20 inches OTG in Boston? Expand I'll take the under on 20 for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:57 AM, CoastalWx said: I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. Expand Probably like green mountains I’m thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would sure as hell think so. Expand Harvey wasn’t too sure about it during his live chat. He thought maybe right at the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM looks a little east of 18z through hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:58 AM, weatherwiz said: Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. Expand I dropped a 20-bomb on my first call and and thinking long and hard about where I go from here. You don't need a lot of time to get stupid in a system of this ilk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 3:01 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Harvey wasn’t too sure about it during his live chat. He thought maybe right at the coast... Expand I didn't see a huge signal, but the 00z NAM argued near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:28 AM, dryslot said: For a model that everyone thought was a door mat, It looks like it made a lot of new friends today........lol Expand Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:58 AM, weatherwiz said: Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. Expand Great post. I believe Scott has mentioned the whole shredded dendrites in wind issue is often overblown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:57 AM, CoastalWx said: I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. Expand Like MPM west or HubbDave west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:57 AM, moneypitmike said: When is the RGEM available? Expand Its coming out now and it looks like it has ticked east from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:58 AM, ajisai said: Will businesses usually close with 20 inches OTG in Boston? Expand 20” is the new norm there, so its business as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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