TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:06 PM, jbenedet said: lol look at the 850 mb temps on this. The euro shows a WARM core system at hr 48. Expand Been showing that past few days unless I've been mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Good for you guys. I still get screwed but getting there. 18z NAM should cause hysteria if it follows it' 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:06 PM, sbos_wx said: Down to 947mb hr 54.. was 957mb same time last night. Intense. Expand How is it lat/lon wise comparatively? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:06 PM, powderfreak said: Doesn't seem much different, are we missing something? Expand Well for Runawayberg and the Berks..looks snowier than it seemed yesterday. I'm not saying 2', but it won't be the cirrus MPM thought he'd smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Are these strengths to be believed?? I mean low 950's upper 940's....that's insane?? overdone??? Or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Dendrite is going to pull off 15'' of mid-level magic pixie dust out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z EURO QPF for Queens... This is pretty much what my thought has been for about 4 days, this map, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 947 "warm core" storm, lol. I don't even think those pressures are possible in September at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Like I said yesterday...western new england...do not let your guard down. Expand Yes..deformation pretty far west. Some never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be. Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient. In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Not as impressive as the early descriptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:13 PM, powderfreak said: In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be. Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient. In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite. Expand That would probably be PWM-PSM-BED this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:10 PM, MarkO said: 947 "warm core" storm, lol. I don't even think those pressures are possible in September at that latitude. Expand I think the Jan 1978 OV blizzard got close, low 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:10 PM, wxeyeNH said: 60 Expand Man just think about if that "L" was just off the Cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:13 PM, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. Expand I didn't see anyone mention qpf? Upper level features were west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Mid levels are really pretty. That QPF output is going to fail miserably as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:10 PM, powderfreak said: 12z EURO QPF for Queens... This is pretty much what my thought has been for about 4 days, this map, lol. Expand I could be wrong, but HFD-CEF on west will do better than 2". Just my two pennies. Probably you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:10 PM, powderfreak said: 12z EURO QPF for Queens... This is pretty much what my thought has been for about 4 days, this map, lol. Expand Good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z Euro says it’s coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'd be cautious on this euro run. That looks like a TC/hybrid on the euro at hr 48. That could be screwing with the whole synoptic wave development/phase interaction on the evolution of this... I dunno... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:13 PM, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. Expand The "whole region" does not really mean the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:14 PM, dendrite said: That would probably be PWM-PSM-BED this run. Expand Yeah that very well could be right. It often finds itself to the location of the lower end of the sharp QPF gradient for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 And yeah...pretty nice warm seclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro drapes the CF down along the Plymouth/Bristol County lines. Hasn't budged from that area in a couple days now. Anyone off the Canal is likely all frozen in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 How can everything be so far west in the first 48 hours and then suddenly I think the jetting east north east south of Nova Scotia? What makes that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro has .2 qpf for central CT..I would have thought a bit more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 In my rough H7 graphics, I would say a nice band potential exists from TOL-ORH-GAY on northeast despite QPF. But since this is moving fast, residence time won't be terribly long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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