40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS can't handle stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:58 PM, WxBlue said: Still not quite there yet for the GFS. Expand A bit late coming into this thread. Are you seeing the GFS coming more in line with the less snow/westerly track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:01 PM, amc said: A bit late coming into this thread. Are you seeing the GFS coming more in line with the less snow/westerly track? Expand Westerly track is more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:01 PM, amc said: A bit late coming into this thread. Are you seeing the GFS coming more in line with the less snow/westerly track? Expand More west, same lack of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:41 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: OT but get a view of the Wolf Moon. WOW! Expand OT too. It's another Super Moon. Actually closer than last months. I have not looked at tides but assume tide heights would be coming back down just in time for this weeks possible monster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:54 PM, Hoth said: Much weaker relative to its "bombier" runs. Expand I can almost see that ... Excuse the anthropomorphism but, it's like "Well wait ... I can't do that if I have to consider ... oh schit! - output deadline. Let's give 'em this for now and we'll think about it for later. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The 00z runs are going to need to jump in a decent way I think or else this is going to turn into a more pedestrian solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:05 PM, CT Rain said: The 00z runs are going to need to jump in a decent way I think or else this is going to turn into a more pedestrian solution. Expand Agreed....but I think a NAM solution would work for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z Reggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:08 PM, dryslot said: 18z Reggie Expand Congrats Bangor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:38 PM, ineedsnow said: Is the nam the first to sample this at 0z tonight? Expand NAM,CMC,GFS,NQVGEM,EURO, et al all sample it simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:08 PM, dryslot said: 18z Reggie Expand Giddy up! Could catch a good piece of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 00z is do or die for us on the western fringe. If it doesn't make a sizeable jump, we can toss it in. Central/eastern folks have another few runs in things look crappy. 2.5* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:15 PM, moneypitmike said: 00z is do or die for us on the western fringe. If it doesn't make a sizeable jump, we can toss it in. Central/eastern folks have another few runs in things look crappy. 2.5* Expand It’s tough to hang our hats on the geps, sref, rpm but it can happen like 1 in 100 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:16 PM, weathafella said: 12z JMA Expand where's my noose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:06 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I understand what a blizzard is. I'll be shocked if the d stream doesn't trend west. Expand I would not be shocked if it trended West. That being said, it is really tough to get blizzard verification at inland sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:25 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I would not be shocked if it trended West. That being said, it is really tough to get blizzard verification at inland sites. Expand agreed, even with a track inside the bench mark meeting criteria would not be guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:28 PM, codfishsnowman said: agreed, even with a track inside the bench mark meeting criteria would not be guaranteed Expand I really wish I could be at Pit2 for this.......they might do well. It's also my last attempt at winter (cold aside) for the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 00z Nam will be our first foretaste of better sampling. See you at 9 o'clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:29 PM, moneypitmike said: I really wish I could be at Pit2 for this.......they might do well. It's also my last attempt at winter (cold aside) for the next two weeks. Expand yup I think that would be a great spot for this one, I am not convinced of much outside of crazy bouts of cold anyways going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:25 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I would not be shocked if it trended West. That being said, it is really tough to get blizzard verification at inland sites. Expand That's true for the vast majority of events if wind is required. AMS: http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Blizzard Terrain is important... Out in Plains/ Great Lakes regions, the flattish terrain is less impeding on laminar flow, such that air motion is less "gusty" in nature, and you can sustain higher winds closer to the ground. But, we are hillier in terrain around here ... We're far more often to get winter storm warning snow fall rates/visibility, with gusts occasionally limiting further to blizzard proportions, but unlikely to "sustain" that for three straight hours outside of some extremely rare circumstances. The thing is ... who's really qualifying differences if it's 21 F with 3.78" per hour falling for three hours, just because the wind is only 25 mph ... That's choking - these are all just silly rules we invent to categorize things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 not sure why folks are saying the 00z is "the first" for sampling - the waves are on land and were so starting at 06z ... is there some intel on why we're waiting until 00z ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 My average temp for the last 4 days was .1* Pretty righteous. 1.9* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Probably a dumb question but... We all talk about pieces of energy finally coming into areas where they can be sampled better. My memory stinks but for those of you that remember these types of things are there good examples of when models showed more or less one solution and then all of a sudden a piece of energy all gets sampled and ingested and we see a big shift in track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:40 PM, Typhoon Tip said: not sure why folks are saying the 00z is "the first" for sampling - the waves are on land and were so starting at 06z ... is there some intel on why we're waiting until 00z ? Expand well you just sorta answered my question I just posted about sampling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:42 PM, wxeyeNH said: well you just sorta answered my question I just posted about sampling... Expand Sampling is mostly voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:40 PM, Typhoon Tip said: not sure why folks are saying the 00z is "the first" for sampling - the waves are on land and were so starting at 06z ... is there some intel on why we're waiting until 00z ? Expand This is what BOX was saying until the most recent AFD: The lead shortwave will be entering the NW CONUS this morning but second shortwave which is the critical piece in determining the amplification of the Great Lakes trough is still over the Pacific and moving into western Canada this morning. This shortwave will not be well sampled by upper air network until tonight so suspect 00z Tue or 12z Tue model suite will have a better handle on resolving the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:28 PM, codfishsnowman said: agreed, even with a track inside the bench mark meeting criteria would not be guaranteedDon’t really need a blizzard. Thinking 3-6 western areas, 6-12 central and higher east. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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