TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It still gets punted east pretty far. Not much change from 12z from what I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is going to be a blizzard. Expand I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is going to be a blizzard. Expand It is, Just a matter of for who and how many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:39 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: The nam is onto something This is gonna be a bomb somewhere from Carolina's to Delmarva Expand This could be a HECS regardless of what it does in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is going to be a blizzard. Expand Where is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:44 PM, dryslot said: It is, Just a matter of for who and how many. Expand When Nantucket verifies, nobody will care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nam somehow still puts this thing east of 12z in the end, but I'd toss the last 30 hours of that. Looked great for a while. I agree with Ray: blizzard possible out east, solid mid-range event out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:44 PM, dryslot said: It is, Just a matter of for who and how many. Expand For most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:44 PM, powderfreak said: This could be a HECS regardless of what it does in New England. Expand A lot is lost to sleet though, historic regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:44 PM, JBinStoughton said: Where is that? Expand As modeled on the NAM, Plymouth County, MA, the Cape, The Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:43 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It still gets punted east pretty far. Not much change from 12z from what I can see Expand You're sweating it too much. It was an improved look at 5h and has continued the subtle improvements. That's a solid storm verbatim for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: For most of us. Expand Most of us hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Carolinas to delmarva to capecod w big cut off near cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looked like that last vort that was diving down the backside and rounding the base of the trough gives this a kick to the east instead of phasing in until its over NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:46 PM, Ericjcrash said: A lot is lost to sleet though, historic regardless. Expand It's not going to be the 1973 blizzard down there. Your correct though, Sleet and icy cold rain will probably be the majority what falls down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: For most of us. Expand I hope so, but I don’t see blizzard conditions verifying very far inland as it is currently modeled. I could see this changing though, Need more data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It actually ends up east of 12z. It can be as amped as it wants... it doesn’t matter though if it keeps getting kicked East. Still looks okay down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The NAM/GFS shift east in the mid Atlantic seems a bit odd, but I wonder if it has something to do with SS temps/Gulf stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 LOL, I like the RPM. Looks like 950 over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM looks like a mess to me. Convective feedback? The precip shield is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:49 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, I like the RPM. Looks like 950 over the Cape. Expand Images please. That is porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Convinced that there will be (A) big convection, (B) a lot of consequent latent heat release, yielding (C) higher heights than presently modeled, and (D) blizzard conditions for a goodly number of people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:41 PM, sbos_wx said: SREF's are worse than the NAM, and the NAM is horrible Expand Not according to these verification statistics... SREF exhibits less bias than NAM for most qpf events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:48 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It actually ends up east of 12z. It can be as amped as it wants... it doesn’t matter though if it keeps getting kicked East. Still looks okay down here. Expand The final track will be irrelevant if the MLs keep improving (which they are) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:50 PM, sbos_wx said: NAM looks like a mess to me. Convective feedback? The precip shield is ridiculous Expand Probably, all these bombs have it to some extent in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The SREFs suck. They go downhill the more they play with them. The “upgrade” last year made them unusable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:46 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: You're sweating it too much. It was an improved look at 5h and has continued the subtle improvements. That's a solid storm verbatim for us. Expand I've always been fascinated how the geography of Mass really helps in getting big snowstorms and although I'm not thinking this is how it turns out, the NAM really illustrates how E.MA does so well in east coast snowstorms. The geography of the coastline sticking out into the Atlantic there really ups the chances for big snows. Like if this were to turn out like this, you can see how Mass's geography sticking out in the ocean gets you guys into the good precipitation. If the coastline just continued from Maine to NYC on a line, there's a whole bunch of storms that wouldn't have been quite as good. Awesome good fortune to have that geography sticking out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hi res NAM would'v been epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:51 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: The final track will be irrelevant if the MLs keep improving (which they are) Expand Yes, And they are so who cares where it tracks right now, The improvements were there for the most part at H5 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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