Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Models today are converging on a storm impacting the Northeast. Details are still to be ironed out but we look to have a highly anomalous modeled storm coming out of the Gulf that pass somewhere off the coast of New England. The modeled SLP is pretty low for a winter storm (sub 960mb) so while the main storm center may pass well offshore, there should be a pretty expansive western edge to the precipitation field. One other feature that models seem to be picking up upon is a strong low level convergence between the primary low and ULL over the GL. This is likely what is allowing for the further offshore track to still throwback moisture so far removed from the center of circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Is this the same system that Kevin called as OTS a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ukie precip we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Snow for at least for the eastern areas are looking more likely, Now its how far west can we track the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Is this the same system that Kevin called as OTS a few days ago? To be fair, there was modeling supporting that, and it still could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The interesting part of the dual structure is that upper level forcing supports it. In other words, the GFS isn't just producing a band of snow inland and a band of QPF with convection for no reason. At 850 mb especially, it clearly has two zones of higher deformation, both within the strongest f-gen. Maybe Will can remember an analog that had this dual-banded structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Click on your state: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mrfmosmap.php Here’s mine-looks like GFS MEX output sees Cape taint: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/MA.MRF.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 What’s the scale on that map Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: What’s the scale on that map Steve? Blue starts 0.5" and light orange starts 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s the scale on that map Steve? Yellows equal woodys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Blue starts 0.5" and light orange starts 1" Thank you! Nice hit for us easties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Thank you! Nice hit for us easties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 No one is expecting a big euro move but a nice improvement with the features would suffice. Lets roll it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ima nit-pick the GGEM but I just looked through the thermal profile and I don't see rain here. Looked like a pasting verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ima nit-pick the GGEM but I just looked through the thermal profile and I don't see rain here. Looked like a pasting verbatim. Yeah... that’s 12”+ here of heavy snow... I’d lock that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 Koochie for Ginx. Looks like the Museum would be buried. 32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I would suck that thing dry if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I would suck that thing dry if it verifies. And I'd still be waiting for my first inch...obviously it takes an anomalous year to get snowfall on to the cape...i wasn't living here in 2005 but my sister was. Wonder if this monster shares an analog with anything from 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: And I'd still be waiting for my first inch...obviously it takes an anomalous year to get snowfall on to the cape...i wasn't living here in 2005 but my sister was. Wonder if this monster shares an analog with anything from 2005? That map gives PYM 6 ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: And I'd still be waiting for my first inch...obviously it takes an anomalous year to get snowfall on to the cape...i wasn't living here in 2005 but my sister was. Wonder if this monster shares an analog with anything from 2005? Anything is on the table, eastern zones are favored at the moment. You’ll get your first inch and as much as you can handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro continues to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Euro continues to trend better. Yea, im liking the subtle improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z Euro going to a couple tics better then 0z, Little further west with the southern stream vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, im liking the subtle improvements. Euro as you know rarely makes big moves but every tick has been in the right direction the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, im liking the subtle improvements. Hopefully not too subtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Who here likes tracking and seeing positive trends in guidance more than the actual storms? Feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Better presentation but more paltry with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Who here likes tracking and seeing positive trends in guidance more than the actual storms? Feeling this one. well for me 90 plus percent of them have been disappointing so the tracking usually is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 That absolutely nukes NE and DE Maine this run, 947mb.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Better presentation but more paltry with qpf. Just get the track better. Qpf is not an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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