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December 25 - ? Arctic Cold


nwohweather

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HRRR drops winds to around, or just under 5mph tonight over much of IA/IL.  Should be enough to get some of the low-lying/sheltered areas near calm.  May really see the bottom drop out in some of the favored areas.  I see DVN bumped the points down a bit from earlier.  Now has us at -18, and -22 for DVN.  -23 for Hawkeyeville.  CID seems to be cooling exceptionally well lately so maybe they'll make a run at -25.

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I think LAF has a puncher's chance at -20 tonight.  I wouldn't bet my life savings on it, but it's still -5 there and shouldn't warm more than a couple more degrees before the decline commences.  It hasn't hit -20 there since 1/5/99 (made it to -19 on 1/16/09) so it would be a pretty significant occurrence if it does happen.

Some competing factors as mentioned with some warming aloft and the surface high looking a little better positioned than last night.  LAF does radiate fairly well... I would often notice a couple degree difference between there and my place across the river when I was living there.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Looks like -5 for the high at IKK today, a midnight high at that. Very impressive. Sitting at -7 right now. Think we’re going deep overnight/tomorrow morning.

Here's what the HRRR has.  I didn't check in detail to see how well it initialized but it was a few degrees too warm at LAF/IKK and still manages about -20  :yikes:

HRRRCHI_sfc_temp_017.png.88f91505ed30e6a29a9ad24ae045dfbf.png

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's what the HRRR has.  I didn't check in detail to see how well it initialized but it was a few degrees too warm at LAF/IKK and still manages about -20  :yikes:

HRRRCHI_sfc_temp_017.png.88f91505ed30e6a29a9ad24ae045dfbf.png

Yeah, it’s -20 or bust for me tonight. Might as well shoot high...or low. :lol:

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4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Yeah, it’s -20 or bust for me tonight. Might as well shoot high...or low. :lol:

Indeed.  -20 doesn't come around very often.

You probably know the LAF benchmarks by memory, but in addition to what I posted earlier about the last -20, the last temp under -20 at LAF was in the infamous January 1994 (-22).

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The HRRR and RAP both get LAF down to -20 or -21.  I went back and checked the runs from yesterday at this time and they pretty much nailed this morning's low there.

HRRR nailed he low here last night, but also had us at “warming” to -1 for a high, and we only managed -5. More favorable high placement, calm winds and clear skies, would love to see if we could make a run at -20. 

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
452 PM CST MON JAN 01 2018

...RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES AT CHICAGO-OHARE ON JANUARY 1...

* A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 1 DEGREE WAS SET AT CHICAGO-
  OHARE ON MONDAY JANUARY 1. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 5 DEGREES SET
  IN 1969.

* A RECORD LOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -4 DEGREES (AVERAGE OF HIGH
  AND LOW TEMPERATURE) WAS SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE TODAY. THE PREVIOUS
  RECORD LOWEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY 1ST WAS -2.5 DEGREES
  SET IN 1969.
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Since we're running well colder than yesterday evening, not sure why lows won't be colder than this morning. Surface analysis places the 1045 mb line into western IL and surface ridge axis will gradually nose east through the night. High center farther west/southwest from southwest IA into northern MO isn't perfect but it should be close enough to offset WAA aloft and allow for colder temps. PNT managed -21 as coldest in LOT CWA last night and I'm thinking low to possibly mid -20s over deeper snow covered areas is attainable. Already -11 at RPJ as of 00z.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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