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December 25 - ? Arctic Cold

nwohweather

By nwohweather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

From IND:

"Climatology factoid of the day - at Indianapolis, the longest stretch below 20 degrees is 10 days in January 1912. If the current forecast verifies, this record may be in jeopardy."

I would've thought that they would've managed a streak over 10 days at some point.  Wow.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I would've thought that they would've managed a streak over 10 days at some point.  Wow.

I'm sure that we've seen a longer streak than that up here in my lifetime. Seems to be quite a climo difference just between the I 70 and US 24 corridors.

This stretch may be memorable for both the depth AND duration of the cold. I was going to start a thread on it a couple of days ago, but forgot. lol

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Central Illinois

Central Illinois

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017

...SNOW TO BE FOLLOWED BY BRUTAL COLD...

ILZ040>044-047>057-061-300400-
/O.NEW.KILX.WC.Y.0002.171231T0000Z-180102T1800Z/
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Including the cities of Rushville, Havana, Lincoln, Clinton,
Monticello, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville,
Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston,
Mattoon, Paris, and Shelbyville
300 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 15 below zero to 25 below zero,
  and they may be as low as 30 below zero late Sunday night into
  Monday.

* WHERE...Most of central Illinois, as far south as I-70.

* WHEN...Beginning around sunset Saturday, and continuing into
  Tuesday morning.
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Central Illinois

Central Illinois

Posted
Posted 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017

Main focus for this period will be the brutal cold into the first
half of the new week.

Earlier mentioned Wind Chill Advisory over the northern CWA will
be joined by another one as far south as I-70, beginning Saturday
evening and running all the way through Tuesday morning. Sunday
afternoon looks to be the only real period where criteria may not
be met, but it is a short enough time frame that a break in
headlines isn`t really justified. Focus later on will be for
potential warning upgrade, likely during the Sunday night into
Monday time frame, when wind chills below -25 are currently
forecast. Areas south of I-70 may need to be added to the advisory
later this weekend.

The coldest air of this outbreak will be on Monday, where many
locations north of I-72 may fail to reach zero, and lows of 10-15
below zero will be common. It`s been a few years since we`ve
gotten this cold over such a wide area. Somewhat of a respite is
seen on the GFS/ECMWF models Tuesday night, though more lobes of
Arctic air will arrive mid week and again toward Friday. The
timing of this may require temperatures to be lowered again
beginning around Wednesday, but will monitor this for another
forecast cycle.
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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, it's a pretty impressive run.  The duration is probably the most impressive aspect although there have been some new records.  

As mentioned the other day, ORD had back to back highs in the single digits in December for the first time since 1989.

The lack of good snow cover makes the sustained cold interesting. Would obviously be even colder with a deep snowpack.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

What’s interesting to me as I work a night shift job is we still are not getting all the way down to the dew point in that 2-7 am window for the big time lows. There have been many chances for -10 here in Toledo, probably will be recognized in the upcoming days

I think there's going to be too much gradient flow around the Lakes to really maximize radiational cooling, but it will still get very cold.  Sfc high track looks more ideal in the western Midwest.

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Jim Martin

Jim Martin

Posted
Posted

From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana in their evening Area Forecast Discussion...

Very dangerous wind chills will be a concern for multi-day period 
for Saturday night through Tuesday night. Several nights/mornings of 
wind chill advisories appear likely, with possibly even reaching 
wind chill warning criteria of 25 below for portions of the area 
early next week. Prospects of any significant relief from the cold 
appear to be short lived by middle of next week before another 
reinforcing shot of cold advection works across the region.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I would've thought that they would've managed a streak over 10 days at some point.  Wow.

Here are some other top records for consecutive days with a max temp of less than 20º

Chicago: 12 days (Feb 1-12, 1895 and Jan 22 - Feb 2, 1936)

Columbus: 8 days (Jan 10-17, 1893 and Feb 6-13, 1899)

Des Moines: 18 days (Dec 30, 1978-Jan 16, 1979)

Detroit: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936 and Feb 8-18, 1979) 

Fort Wayne: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936)

Green Bay: 21 days (Jan 11-31, 1963)

International Falls: 42 days (Jan 1-Feb 11, 1994)

Milwaukee: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Minneapolis: 39 days (Jan 15-Feb 22, 1936)

Moline: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Peoria: 15 days (Jan 2-16, 1912)

St. Louis: 9 days (Jan 23-31, 1936)

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Here are some other top records for consecutive days with a max temp of less than 20º

Chicago: 12 days (Feb 1-12, 1895 and Jan 22 - Feb 2, 1936)

Columbus: 8 days (Jan 10-17, 1893 and Feb 6-13, 1899)

Des Moines: 18 days (Dec 30, 1978-Jan 16, 1979)

Detroit: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936 and Feb 8-18, 1979) 

Fort Wayne: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936)

Green Bay: 21 days (Jan 11-31, 1963)

International Falls: 42 days (Jan 1-Feb 11, 1994)

Milwaukee: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Minneapolis: 39 days (Jan 15-Feb 22, 1936)

Moline: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Peoria: 15 days (Jan 2-16, 1912)

St. Louis: 9 days (Jan 23-31, 1936)

I see some familiar dates in there, Nashville TN also recorded the most consecutive days max of 20 or below February 1899 of 6; at or below 32 was 9 also from 1899; we should be bumping up against the 32 record here by this time next week; wonder how long before major water ways start icing over?

 

http://www.weather.gov/ohx/otherrecords

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Here are some other top records for consecutive days with a max temp of less than 20º

Chicago: 12 days (Feb 1-12, 1895 and Jan 22 - Feb 2, 1936)

Columbus: 8 days (Jan 10-17, 1893 and Feb 6-13, 1899)

Des Moines: 18 days (Dec 30, 1978-Jan 16, 1979)

Detroit: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936 and Feb 8-18, 1979) 

Fort Wayne: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936)

Green Bay: 21 days (Jan 11-31, 1963)

International Falls: 42 days (Jan 1-Feb 11, 1994)

Milwaukee: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Minneapolis: 39 days (Jan 15-Feb 22, 1936)

Moline: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Peoria: 15 days (Jan 2-16, 1912)

St. Louis: 9 days (Jan 23-31, 1936)

Nice research.  

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Central Illinois

Central Illinois

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
220 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...BRUTAL COLD TO USHER IN THE NEW YEAR...

ILZ040>057-061-310430-
/O.NEW.KILX.WC.W.0001.180101T0300Z-180102T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KILX.WC.Y.0002.171231T0000Z-180101T0300Z/
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Including the cities of Rushville, Havana, Lincoln, Clinton,
Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown, Petersburg,
Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur,
Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, and Shelbyville
220 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 PM CST SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Frostbite may
  occur in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind
  chills to range from 10 below zero to 20 below zero on Sunday,
  and from 15 below to 30 below zero Sunday night through Tuesday
  morning.

* WHERE...Central Illinois and east central Illinois.

* WHEN...The Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 6 pm this
  evening through 9 pm Sunday. The Wind Chill Warning will be in
  effect from 9 pm Sunday through noon Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Actual air temperatures are expected to
  fall to around 10 below to 15 below zero Sunday night and
  Monday night. This level of cold has not occurred for a few
  years. People who will be outdoors the next few days, especially
  on New Years Eve, need to make sure they are properly dressed
  for the bitter cold.
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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

Amazing what disruption the dust bowl caused this region in 1936. That was some serious cold before what would be a sweltering summer

Yeah, there was some brutal cold in those dust bowl years.  Sort of gets lost because of how extreme the heat was.

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XfireLOW

XfireLOW

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Here are some other top records for consecutive days with a max temp of less than 20º

Chicago: 12 days (Feb 1-12, 1895 and Jan 22 - Feb 2, 1936)

Columbus: 8 days (Jan 10-17, 1893 and Feb 6-13, 1899)

Des Moines: 18 days (Dec 30, 1978-Jan 16, 1979)

Detroit: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936 and Feb 8-18, 1979) 

Fort Wayne: 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936)

Green Bay: 21 days (Jan 11-31, 1963)

International Falls: 42 days (Jan 1-Feb 11, 1994)

Milwaukee: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Minneapolis: 39 days (Jan 15-Feb 22, 1936)

Moline: 18 days (Jan 27-Feb 13, 1899)

Peoria: 15 days (Jan 2-16, 1912)

St. Louis: 9 days (Jan 23-31, 1936)

I would think the longest stretch below 20 for International Falls would have to be longer than 42 days?  The Grand Forks NWS office has a video up right now stating that Fargo was below 0 from Jan 15-Feb 20 1936.  

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Dipped to -6 earlier before the incoming cirrostratus put a cap on things.  

To me the most impressive aspect of this cold wave is it's longevity.  Other than a brief warm up to around 12 on Wed the GFS has us staying in the single digits or less through next Saturday.  Pretty unusual to see such a long period of very cold air like this.  

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