wkd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Comparing the 12z nam at 00Z wed. to the same time on the 06Z GFS, the h500 looks improved. 1st short wave has slowed slightly and the 2nd is sharper and has progressed at least as far. Heights look better on the coast also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I can't wait to see what the next run of ensembles brings...rock bottom...best ever...meh...wow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I can't wait to see what the next run of ensembles brings...rock bottom...best ever...meh...wow? We only have 3 sets of ens so strike one option and you have the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Scanned through the eps for d9-10. Not many clean snow storms but a lot of mixed events with zr being the most common. The eps can have a herd mentality inside of 10 days so part of that is because the op went west. Will be interesting to track and see if seasonal trend wins or opening the door for a west track marks the beginning of a new regime. I think it will be something in the middle with Snow to ZR not rain ( let’s get some qpf in here ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, wkd said: Comparing the 12z nam at 00Z wed. to the same time on the 06Z GFS, the h500 looks improved. 1st short wave has slowed slightly and the 2nd is sharper and has progressed at least as far. Heights look better on the coast also. I thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It has Mid Atlantic centered written all over it. I hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Like PSU said the other day, if we need a North trend I'm all in but when we need a west trend I get that sick nauseated feeling. Maybe one time we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 As Bob alluded to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: As Bob alluded to earlier. Yep, and it's why I think the weeklies suck. We're just not there yet. You can't roll a d15 pattern forward when d15 is as stable as Mel Gibson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: As Bob alluded to earlier. Well the good news is that we need that cold for snow chances. Maybe just need a slight reshuffle to aim that moisture at us. Seems like we are heading that way eventually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, and it's why I think the weeklies suck. We're just not there yet. You can't roll a d15 pattern forward when d15 is as stable as Mel Gibson. I agree. If anything persistance of features repeating in the West Pac and the Asain influence as well lead me to believe that if anything we might trend a bit less cold then go stormy and then maybe even harsh cold again. Seems a battle is looming between the current Nina and the actual responses you see from it. Kind of like uncharted waters here. I am excited to track things and see the outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Seems like warm off equator temps in the Epac + Wpac warm pool on roids are a good combo for cold. Might be able to keep it up through the next month or so at least too. If this pattern was going to break down it should've happened by now. Seasonal wavelengths/large scale atmos characteristics are already in their deep winter form by now and won't change much until the sun comes up again in late jan/feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GFS appears to be digging the southern plains s/w a little further west, can't be a bad a thing I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS appears to be digging the southern plains s/w a little further west, can't be a bad a thing I would think. A lot of confluence to the NE in the atl. Euro doesn't nearly as much. Not enough room to amplify and back the flow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NS needs to dig to LA instead of FL and turn negative to pull it in. This was a slight small step of improvement but I think it can only change so much in the time we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 With the changes on the Gfs, there is no doubt in my mind the Euro will show a blizzard for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: NS needs to dig to LA instead of FL and turn negative to pull it in. This was a slight small step of improvement but I think it can only change so much in the time we have This is so close. Unless the pattern changes significantly for the worse, I'm not giving up on this one until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: With the changes on the Gfs, there is no doubt in my mind the Euro will show a blizzard for NE. what changed with the GFS? It actually looks a bit worse than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: With the changes on the Gfs, there is no doubt in my mind the Euro will show a blizzard for NE. Well last night it showed a 953 low about 75 east miles of cape cod... I would imagine that would produce blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, wkd said: This is so close. Unless the pattern changes significantly for the worse, I'm not giving up on this one until the end. I agree and have hope. But hope won't change the NS configuration. Negative and more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12z Euro will be telling. Trending our way is all we can pray for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ji said: what changed with the GFS? It actually looks a bit worse than 6z I thought there were pluses and minuses. Slightly better dig and spacing of the vorts coming through the midwest but more confluence in the Atl before trough goes neutral. Net effect = nearly identical results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 anybody have the Canadian yet? only out to 30 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I don't have any maps yet but apparently the ukie is over the benchmark. I assume thats good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I don't have any maps yet but apparently the ukie is over the benchmark. I assume thats good? 12z isn’t out yet, where are you seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ji said: what changed with the GFS? It actually looks a bit worse than 6z Ne snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I don't have any maps yet but apparently the ukie is over the benchmark. I assume thats good? Maybe, maybe not. Could just mean a late phase bringing it back to the coast for a NE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Unless I'm misinterpreting the 500 map, it looks like the second stream of energy almost caught up to the first one on the 12z run close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z isn’t out yet, where are you seeing this? https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 should be a way to loop it but I couldn't find a better view. There must be one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ne snow Just the nature of the beast Mitch. With their latitude they do both complicated and simple setups well. Late blooming and early developing storms as well. Here in the Mid-Atlantic we need simple and we need well timed to produce. He!!, my dog farts and NE gets a foot of snow whereas all I get for my troubles is a stench filled house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.