Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: 999mb seems pretty weak. GFS is 20mb deeper at that latitude Seems like potentially a good thing. If a 999mb low can be that far West, hopefully we can get a strong low like the GFS was showing GEFS farther West with precip mean too. My guess is that it has 1 big member that shows a big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Anyone got access to the weather.us UKIE precip maps? Wondering what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ok trend on the UKIE, if the Euro comes in similar then folks are gonna get suckered back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 End of the gfs showing a -ao/nao combo. I'll say this...we got a lot of strong +ao/nao looks not too long ago from ops and ens. That has mostly evaporated. At least with the AO. Wouldn't it be something if there is no real relax before we transition back to "normal" cold with a -ao.... This panel is the end but plenty panels before showing ridging all over up there. Epo kinda folds over again and then it all fills in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The whole trough on the Ukie is much further west then the Gfs Yeah and the first shortwave dies or stalls. Can't see why it's not forming a low off FL at 120hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Man, gefs looking really sweet d9-12. Don't have the memebers yet but I already know there's a jump in snow solutions. This a nice run across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Yep, gefs is a straight weenie run. Brings the med range coastal back with some grazes but that's not the weenie part. D9-12 is snowy/icy more than rainy. More stuff after too. Compared to the last 4 runs it's night and day better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, gefs looking really sweet d9-12. Don't have the memebers yet but I already know there's a jump in snow solutions. This a nice run across the board. I'm gonna lol if our real wintery period ends up being everyone's "flip to warm". I keep thinking most of the Nina winters that had a hard flip to warm did it by now. The ones that had cold this far in ended to linger cold a while if not the rest of winter. Even 2011 the cold lasted most of Jan then returned at times in feb. I'm sure at some point we get a few warm days and it can't be this cold for long but to don't see any big warm torch pattern coming. Every time it shows it gets pushed back then muted on guidance. Opposite of what we're used too lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro is West as of hr 120 compared to 12z. Snow sprouting in extreme East N Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro is West as of hr 120 compared to 12z. Snow sprouting in extreme East N Carolina Bring it home brotha... Seriously tho...it is west and may scrape eastern areas this run. Somewhat interesting at the surface...havent looked at h5 Eta: congrats OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Bring it home brotha... Seriously tho...it is west and may scrape eastern areas this run. Somewhat interesting at the surface...havent looked at h5 Looking like it's gonna crush NE on this run. So close to a hit for DC Edit: it didn't crush NE, but it's close to a good storm, and not a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A tad deeper than the UKMET at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: A tad deeper than the UKMET at 144 That northern stream dig was probably only 150 miles too far east and just needed maybe 5-10 degrees more neg tilt and it was coming. It's hard to write stuff off outside of 4-5 days this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Halfway back with 96h to go (to initialization, 120-144 to max storm). There's a chance. I was saying earlier on NE forum put Brady in charge, apparently they have done so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro has D9/10 storm well to our North. I'm honestly happy with this look since we now know models will eventually show less amped storm systems, and hopefully this is the case. Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 0z EPS is close. Probably has a couple members really close with snow. Trended West, which is good Edit: Individual members farther West too, but not by a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 0z EPS is close. Probably has a couple members really close with snow. Trended West, which is good That depiction is too reminiscent of A Boxing Day 2010 type nightmare (no thanks). Either come much further west or stay the hell out to sea, Lol. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That depiction is too reminiscent of A Boxing Day 2010 type nightmare (no thanks). Either come much further west or stay the hell out to sea, Lol. MDstormI completely agree with you. I wouldn't be too mad if Boston got a decent storm and not us, but when Philly and NYC get 6"+ and we get nothing, that's the worst type of storm. Still plenty of time to trend West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 0z EPS is close. Probably has a couple members really close with snow. Trended West, which is good Edit: Individual members farther West too, but not by a whole lot. How do you see the 24hr snow panel on wxbell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 It's in the EPS panel that says ECMWF EPS Rain/Snow: Country/State/Metro Zoom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gfs way stronger and way more west but still a miss. Still some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The West side of precip is pretty wide. We don't need it to shift that far west for a little action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ji said: The West side of precip is pretty wide. We don't need it to shift that far west for a little action At hour 108 we have a nice surface low popping over the Bahamas. If that could take shape just about 150 miles to the west in the gulf... We'd be straight money. Thunderstorms over Western Florida.. that typically equals good Miller a track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: Euro has D9/10 storm well to our North. I'm honestly happy with this look since we now know models will eventually show less amped storm systems, and hopefully this is the case. Hopefully This is not true. We could easily slip in to a warming period where the storm track sets up to our west. You cannot base a 10 day forecast on the back end of an epic cold spell At some point it has to warm up. 10 days from now would be late IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I'm gonna lol if our real wintery period ends up being everyone's "flip to warm". I keep thinking most of the Nina winters that had a hard flip to warm did it by now. The ones that had cold this far in ended to linger cold a while if not the rest of winter. Even 2011 the cold lasted most of Jan then returned at times in feb. I'm sure at some point we get a few warm days and it can't be this cold for long but to don't see any big warm torch pattern coming. Every time it shows it gets pushed back then muted on guidance. Opposite of what we're used too lately. And in 95-96 our really good relatively consistent stuff didnt start until Jan 6. Iirc December wasnt off the charts in terms of snowfall. It became super active early Jan and there were plenty of transient moderations as well. We wont touch that years snowfall probably.....that was an anomaly, but my point is we may just be entering a period of cold and active storminess where as psu alluded to many Ninas already have us flipped. This can be done. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GEFS mean is a heck of a strong lp signal and that cluster nearer the coast is a much better look. Still need that Southern vort to slow down post 84 hours but up until then the trends look nice. I guess we could get grazed if it runs out ahead but it pulls the entire pendulum East before snapping back into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gonna be tough to score a classic DC-Boston storm here, but the trend is good so far. If we can get an equally far West trend on the 12z, we're in business. e15 is the stuff of dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The Cobalt storm just got shocked back to life. Still on life support, but looks like the breathing tubes might come out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Like some on these boards I had pretty much written off the possible storm for this coming Thursday. Just a very complicated setup with timing issues galore and we don't do complicated well here in the Mid-Atlantic. But after seeing the overnight run of the Euro op I may have to rethink my position because there may still be some Woof left in this old dog. Though this year has been rough with op runs outside of 2/3 days I still begin placing more weight on what the op runs show (especially the Euro) within 5 days, of which we are now at with this possible storm. And what I saw with the overnight run has peaked my interest to say the least. Below we have the 12 Z run of the Euro. Notice the separation between A and B. This look is probably a swing and a miss on any possible phasing, with the southern energy moving out ahead of the NS taking the storm OTS with it. Notice one other feature on the top of the map, C. This is more NS energy beginning to sneak onto the map and it is following in the wake of B but there is a good deal of separation between it and B. Now we have the overnight run timed to the 12Z run above. Notice where A and B are now. This looks to be a phase about ready to happen as we see B beginning to drop down behind A. Now notice where C is now located compared to the previous map. It is now running on the coattails of B. This is 12 hours later from the 12Z run posted above. Notice that we have a swing and a miss with a possible phase A and B as A runs out ahead taking the storm with it OTS. C on this map is sitting this one out. This is 12 hours later from the 00Z run posted above. We are now seeing a phase of A and B in the deep south. Though the phase results in a closer approach of our coastal storm it is still a little to late in regards to our region. Also look at C. It is right on the doorstep of dropping down behind the A+B phase but is just a little too late to join the party as A+B escape to the east. Now for those that don't realize it, the map directly above was just 6-12 hours too late for a big ticket item for our region. In two areas no less. First off, if we see a 6-12 hour quicker phase of A+B we see a farther north solution with that feature which then puts C into play for phasing, Which probably results with a triple phase running up the coast as A+B is not able to escape to the east. Or even if we see C come in 6-12 hours quicker we see that phase with A+B again bringing a triple phased system up the coast, though it would probably be a little farther to the east then the first scenario would be. Now for those who will argue, 'well this is just one run of an op and the ops haven't been too reliable this winter', I agree with you. But from what I have been seeing over the last few runs of the Euro I actually think we may be in play here especially if the trends continue. Looking over the last few runs everything has been trending positively for getting a storm to impact our region on Thursday, possibly even a big ticket item. The overall trough setup has improved and simplified somewhat where we don't have to jump through hoops to get this to work. We are now seeing a legit and distinct 50/50 showing up creating backing helping to push this storm closer to the coast. The southern stream has trended northward allowing the NS energy the better ability to phase. The NS energy (B) has been coming in quicker, deeper and more westerly. And now we are seeing more NS energy (C) now entering the picture as a potential player in the mix. Now as we all well know by now, especially this winter, this all could be gone by the next run. Would not be surprising and probably somewhat expected. But from what I have seen over the last few runs, don't be surprised if we start getting some killer solutions from the Euro/EPS suite if these trends continue. If we can get this look inside of day 3 I think we would be very much in the game. eta: Forgot to mention. Though I didn't look overly hard into the overnight GFS I did notice we were seeing much of the same trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gonna be tough to score a classic DC-Boston storm here, but the trend is good so far. If we can get an equally far West trend on the 12z, we're in business. e15 is the stuff of dreams Never say never to the possibility. GEFS continue to hint at getting some well timed Atl help and is actually closer to connecting the EPO ridge and the rising NAO ridge at 0z-12z Thurday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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