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New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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19 minutes ago, stormy said:

Hey! I'm trying to be positive here. The 18z GFS gives me .30" qpf, 220 - 240 along with a possible couple inches of snow. That is almost as much qp as the entire month of Dec... 10-15 day also looks juicy.  I'll take it!

I hear ya. I was just saying that the theme of the winter has been for possible events to trend east and south this winter. Less amped as we get closer to the event actually happening. Showing a further west track this far out might be a good thing.

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I hear ya. I was just saying that the theme of the winter has been for possible events to trend east and south this winter. Less amped as we get closer to the event actually happening. Showing a further west track this far out might be a good thing.

As I have said several times in recent days. I am not interested in fighting the arctic express with phantom dreams of how we might beat it. I am only interested in what 50 years of observation has revealed. More than 90% of the time in our region, a strong polar blast must relax to get moisture back into the equation. An exception would be January 29 of 1966.

This time around, I find hope in what I'm seeing on the GFS/ECM/GEM today that indicates the tristate area may see interesting weather- wise between January 8 - 15. We can only hope that tomorrow looks as promising.  

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17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not to worry.  The moisture signal will be gone in 24-48 hours, but you can be sure it's because cold air is pushing south.  So the good news  is, we're still cold enough to snow. :arrowhead:

Yea thinking the same thing. The good thing is by the time the d10 deal goes poof there will be a new d10 precip bomb showing up 

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15 minutes ago, Amped said:

P010 has the euro day 11 storm. We mix with sleet but it's still pretty good.

It's actually a pretty good run from d10+. Certainly higher chances of precip. Some nice looks mixed in with uncomplicated setups too. Some straight rainers in there but there's a nasty west track/CAD storm in the mix too. Gefs doesn't have the resolution to show CAD well but p003 would be a fun mixed event. 

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There are only two months colder than Jan 1982 was for this area; Jan 1977 and Jan 1940.  The coldest day ever in the eastern panhandle, by mean temp and the lowest high, happened that month with a high of 2 and a low of -13.  Double-digit snow that month also.

1984 had a great cold snap with back to back nights of -13 and -16 at MRB.  Frequent small snowfalls.    2001 was meh.

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1 minute ago, stormy said:

Bob, you're a party pooper. A week ago tomorrow, a few on this board thought I was one. A frustrating pattern gets the best of us.

Nah, I'm just having fun. Jan is the beginning of prime snow climo. I'd be very surprised if we don't get some events in Jan. Cold is cooperating and it won't stay dry forever. We actually don't want this type of cold pattern anyways. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, I'm just having fun. Jan is the beginning of prime snow climo. I'd be very surprised if we don't get some events in Jan. Cold is cooperating and it won't stay dry forever. We actually don't want this type of cold pattern anyways. 

Yea, this type of cold is tough on the heating bill! Thank you for the knowledge that you contribute to this board. I am always impressed with your expertise regarding the details.

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Some pretty interesting tweets going on from Al Marinaro and Anthony Masiello.  Two pretty respectable sources...Throwing around the idea of a limited/brief or even nonexistent relax in Jan.  I wont junk up the thread with tweets but if you follow them you should check some the conversations going on...

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Still a swing and a miss but trended a little better. 

Yeah, certainly better. Manages to get some precip into extreme SE New England this time. Couple more improvements like we've seen and there could certainly be potential 

Edit: Canadian is better too

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