New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually like that look a lot. In general I like where we might be heading. If the WAR emerges with a pos or neutral nao the se ridge will be there and yes at times something could go to our north. But with the epo continuing to load cold it will press and we could get waves along the boundary if a high is to our north. We would want less amplified systems but given the trends this year that seems a reasonable get. 

ETA: less amped doesn't mean less precip. Get a tight baroclinoc boundary just to our south and a weak wave along it can do just fine. 

This will be an interesting test as we move forward. 12z EPS was pretty bullish on a west track with the d10'ish deal but not unanimous. We've seen a trend going from long to med range with storms getting pushed on instead of marching NW. GEFS/EPS both favor a west track but 10 days is an eternity and there may not even be a storm as we close the lead window but you gotta wonder what type of opportunity this will present. D11-15 has been terrible lately so while I'm not mad at what the EPS (or GEFS) is showing, I expect things to move around quite a bit. For better or worse of course. I'm not sure which direction we're heading. Hopefully the GEFS's idea of the -AO returning is right. 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This will be an interesting test as we move forward. 12z EPS was pretty bullish on a west track with the d10'ish deal but not unanimous. We've seen a trend going from long to med range with storms getting pushed on instead of marching NW. GEFS/EPS both favor a west track but 10 days is an eternity and there may not even be a storm as we close the lead window but you gotta wonder what type of opportunity this will present. D11-15 has been terrible lately so while I'm not mad at what the EPS (or GEFS) is showing, I expect things to move around quite a bit. For better or worse of course. I'm not sure which direction we're heading. Hopefully the GEFS's idea of the -AO returning is right. 

I’m not buying a west track anytime soon. Or a mean trough out west to be honest. I’m riding persistence until there’s a good reason to change and persistence is weak flat flow.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I did notice faint hope on GGEM, they keep the track (for Jan 3-4) just out of range and drop the 500 mb low at least somewhat further west than other models at this point. You may be down to JB soon, but never say never. By the way, view from my front gate explains the name change ...

Beautiful, where exactly is that?  Love BC btw. If it wasn't so hard to get a work visa that would be on my list of places to go. Whistler is next on my bucket list after hitting up revelstoke last trip. 

[Roger Smith]

It is New Denver, BC, just about 100 miles due south of Revelstoke next to Slocan Lake which is in the photo and between the Selkirk Mountains and the Valhalla Range which you see in the background. One of the world's smallest glaciers is on the peak to the left of the photo edge (about 2 x 5 miles in extent). We are at 1400' asl and the peaks are about 10k. Had about 15" of snow yesterday on top of 10" already on the ground, but it has settled now to about 18" total pack. Very low moisture content, shovels easy. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

It is New Denver, BC, just about 100 miles due south of Revelstoke next to Slocan Lake which is in the photo and between the Selkirk Mountains and the Valhalla Range which you see in the background. One of the world's smallest glaciers is on the peak to the left of the photo edge (about 2 x 5 miles in extent). We are at 1400' asl and the peaks are about 10k. Had about 15" of snow yesterday on top of 10" already on the ground, but it has settled now to about 18" total pack. Very low moisture content, shovels easy. 

Very familiar. Been to Revy twice. One time I drove. 42 hours.  I know I'm that crazy but I love road trips. The way back I took the ferry and meandered south to Washington State and passed right through your area. Red mtn and Whitewater ski areas not far from you are on my bucket list too. Gorgeous area. 

[Roger Smith]

Then you came through here, assuming you went south from Revelstoke on Hwy 23 and took the Arrow Lake ferry, we are on that highway from Revelstoke to Nelson or Trail whichever way you went to WA. 

Remember Nakusp on Arrow Lake? Hwy 23 ends there at Hwy 6 which runs down through here. We are about 30 miles past that junction. From here you can go south on Hwy 6 to either Nelson, or Castlegar and then Trail to the border crossing, or east to Kaslo on Kootenay Lake which takes you eventually to a border crossing into Idaho. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Just for giggles....the control run would be brief period of snowfall followed by a significant ice storm before losing the surface. I'll bet a lot of the members have ice storms as well. It's a prime pattern for mixed to ice with a retreating HP. Tack on solid frozen ground and put on your skates. 

The gefs has an ice signal day 10-13 too. Most of the "snow" in that window is actually ice. Could go that way. This would be the setup for it. I'm split on ice. I remember in 94 living in Herndon being so upset that about 10 miles NW of me had solid snow/ice cover all winter. They would get 2/3" of snow/sleet with each event when I was getting just a coating then freezing rain. If it's the kind of ice storm where I end up with 3" of solid crud when it's over yes sign me up. But if it's mostly freezing rain and I end up having to break out my chainsaw on bare ground no thanks. For whatever stupid reason it's all about having my grass covered when the storm ends. If it is it's a win. If I see grass the storm was a fail. That's pretty much my bar for every event. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Then you came through here, assuming you went south from Revelstoke on Hwy 23 and took the Arrow Lake ferry, we are on that highway from Revelstoke to Nelson or Trail whichever way you went to WA. 

Remember Nakusp on Arrow Lake? Hwy 23 ends there at Hwy 6 which runs down through here. We are about 30 miles past that junction. From here you can go south on Hwy 6 to either Nelson, or Castlegar and then Trail to the border crossing, or east to Kaslo on Kootenay Lake which takes you eventually to a border crossing into Idaho. 

Yep I drove right through your town. That's why I asked it looked familiar. I might even have a pic saved somewhere from that trip with that same mountain in your shot. 

[Cobalt]

GFS has a faster phase than 12z. Not fast enough to prevent a fish storm, but it's better, I guess. 

[MountainGeek]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs has an ice signal day 10-13 too. Most of the "snow" in that window is actually ice. Could go that way. This would be the setup for it. I'm split on ice. I remember in 94 living in Herndon being so upset that about 10 miles NW of me had solid snow/ice cover all winter. They would get 2/3" of snow/sleet with each event when I was getting just a coating then freezing rain. If it's the kind of ice storm where I end up with 3" of solid crud when it's over yes sign me up. But if it's mostly freezing rain and I end up having to break out my chainsaw on bare ground no thanks. For whatever stupid reason it's all about having my grass covered when the storm ends. If it is it's a win. If I see grass the storm was a fail. That's pretty much my bar for every event. 

This. As I've mentioned before, snowcover is really the benchmark IMO. Rather have a few inches that sticks around for a week or two than a foot that is gone in 2 days because of 60s or rain (or both).

[Roger Smith]

Denied but not delayed? 

[Amped]

Just now, Cobalt said:

GFS has a faster phase than 12z. Not fast enough to prevent a fish storm, but it's better, I guess. 

Not happening.   Troff is further west, however the Jetstreak has a r nw/se orientation.  We need it straight N-S plunge off a cliff to have even a remote chance of getting a storm.   Otherwise, it's just a stronger fishbomb.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Not happening.   Troff is further west, however the Jetstreak has a r nw/se orientation.  We need it straight N-S plunge off a cliff to have even a remote chance of getting a storm.   Otherwise, it's just a stronger fishbomb.

Yeah, I figure. If anything, the trend farther West would, if anything, result in potential snow for extreme SE New England, and that's about it. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GFS has a faster phase than 12z. Not fast enough to prevent a fish storm, but it's better, I guess. 

You're going down with that ship kid. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

This. As I've mentioned before, snowcover is really the benchmark IMO. Rather have a few inches that sticks around for a week or two than a foot that is gone in 2 days because of 60s or rain (or both).

Yea there were some storms up here in the 90s that started as 6" or more of snow but ended up with bare ground. I would be pulling my hair out. I'd rather have 3" on the back end then 8" on the front that washes away immediately. 

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're going down with that ship kid. 

Theres an endless convoy of 1040mb highs dropping down the Mississippi river

[psuhoffman]

The only way I can even see anything possibly coming during that window is if a trailing vort amplified and pops something modest behind the out to sea system. Even that's highly unlikely. But maybe I could see that as something the pattern supports and models can miss from this range. The big phased bomb idea is dead imo. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Theres an endless convoy of 1040mb highs dropping down the Mississippi river

Yea it's not happening. The trough has trended all wrong. It's so far off from where it was 48 hours ago when maybe we had a prayer but needed a slight west trend in the northern stream trough and instead it's been flatter and east. Is now not even close to what we need. I suppose Mother Nature can pull something out anytime but this would be borderline miracle territory now. Time to let it go and move on. We have better more realistic options coming. That's not worth wasting time on. 

[Bob Chill]

It's become painfully obvious that we aren't getting any precip possibly at all until this revolving cold gets out of here. I'm officially rooting for a thaw to come asap. 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The only way I can even see anything possibly coming during that window is if a trailing vort amplified and pops something modest behind the out to sea system. Even that's highly unlikely. But maybe I could see that as something the pattern supports and models can miss from this range. The big phased bomb idea is dead imo. 

It's the southern stream thats causing issues, northern stream is moving around some, SRN stream is blasting OTS for the foreseeable future.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

It's the southern stream thats causing issues, northern stream is moving around some, SRN stream is blasting OTS for the foreseeable future.

The reason the stj system slides south ots is because the northern stream is flat and suppressive. Get a trough digging west of us and that stj system had a chance to get captured and ride north. They both are the problem and out of sync but the northern stream being flat and diving down right over us instead of to our west is the single biggest issue I would change if I could. 

[Cobalt]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're going down with that ship kid. 

Yup, I know. Only trying to pass time before our next "threat" comes into focus and than disappears within day 5

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Amped said:

It's the southern stream thats causing issues, northern stream is moving around some, SRN stream is blasting OTS for the foreseeable future.

Look at the northern stream and where and how it was digging in the euro run that gave us a big storm 2 nights ago. Now look at last night. Today's euro and gfs are even worse. Even that big run I said I wanted to see the trough trend west and deeper to feel safe. It went hard the other way. The stj system is pretty similar on both. But no way it gets captured now. It's not even close anymore. 

[psuhoffman]

18z gfs looks closer to how I want day 10-15. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

18z gfs looks closer to how I want day 10-15. 

All 3 of the major models have moisture headed toward us in the 8 to 10 day time frame. Having a west look probably isn't a bad thing at this point considering the tendency to deamplify as we get closer in time.

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's become painfully obvious that we aren't getting any precip possibly at all until this revolving cold gets out of here. I'm officially rooting for a thaw to come asap. 

Welcome to the team. 

[Cobalt]

14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wpc looks well inside 12z models at day 6. This is most likely ots but personally I'm not declaring this dead yet..too much time . 132-144 hours depending on model and big changes can easily happen post 100 hours...we've seen it many times. If not much progress is seen by Sunday then it's a dead stick but I will continue to track till then ...the thrill of the track is the majority of the fun imo

I see Navgem came west at 18z 

Same with me. We always see rapid changes even within day 5 or 4. We just need them to happen soon and in our favor. If it's still advertised as OTS by the 0z suite tomorrow, I'll call it dead, since any West trend after that would probably mean us watching NYC to Boston get 6"+ of snow

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

All 3 of the major models have moisture headed toward us in the 8 to 10 day time frame. Having a west look probably isn't a bad thing at this point considering the tendency to deamplify as we get closer in time.

Hey! I'm trying to be positive here. The 18z GFS gives me .30" qpf, 220 - 240 along with a possible couple inches of snow. That is almost as much qp as the entire month of Dec... 10-15 day also looks juicy.  I'll take it!

[Bob Chill]

I did see something I didn't like on the gefs for d10ish. Euro had a strong retreating hp to the north and the ens mostly agreed. GEFS has hp centered further south and a stupid dumb low near the lakes. If we have a shot at precip attacking a cold high on the way out we don't want weakness to the northwest like this panel shows. Tons of time to pass before worrying about stuff like this but I'm in find good stuff mode. This wasn't a good find. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I did see something I didn't like on the gefs for d10ish. Euro had a strong retreating hp to the north and the ens mostly agreed. GEFS has hp centered further south and a stupid dumb low near the lakes. If we have a shot at precip attacking a cold high on the way out we don't want weakness to the northwest like this panel shows. Tons of time to pass before worrying about stuff like this but I'm in find good stuff mode. This wasn't a good find. 

Not to worry.  The moisture signal will be gone in 24-48 hours, but you can be sure it's because cold air is pushing south.  So the good news  is, we're still cold enough to snow.