EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Feb 12th-13th. Winchester reported 9-10". HGR got over a foot. You must have done pretty well. Iconic sat presentation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_2006#/media/File:GreatBlizzardof2006.jpg 39 minutes ago, gymengineer said: 2/11-12/06- local bullseye as I said was in Howard County, MD. Snow map on Ray Martin’s page: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06.html Edited to add: this event set NYC’s single storm record, breaking the 1947 total, even though snow depth was nowhere near the total. That total was beaten by the 1/16 blizzard. The forecast Saturday morning was actually ok- 8-12” type ranges depending on the outlet. Models were showing >1” liquid and Ji was happy. The event started as rain though, and mixed with and changed to snow by sunset here but had difficulty accumulating. Bob Ryan got spooked and cut back the totals to 3-6” in the evening. Matt was rallying the troops late evening, even though the event smelled like a bust, by updating us all on the RAP. The RAP continued to show run-after-run great rates after midnight. What happened predawn was better than the models showed with a deathband in the customary along the fall line location. I measured 14” in Potomac, MD. My cul-de-sac street that usually took a long time to be touched was already down to blacktop pavement by 8 am. Thank you both. Weird that I can't recall that one. I was single then and it was a Saturday night, maybe I was drunk. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Weeklies look pretty good if you believe them. Week 3 is the only crap week with a +EPO so basically the warm pattern showing up on the ens only lasts a week. Then the -EPO is back and even hints of -AO through week 4. First half of Feb looks pretty tasty overall. Fairly broad conus trough and cold enough. I typically only pay attention to week 3 because there seems to be some skill there. I'm good with a 1 week or so warm period and then a step down back to a more classic winter pattern into Feb. The end of week 6 is actually the coldest relative to normal in the east so a lot of ens must be seeing a cold pattern for it to show up that clearly. I have a hunch we're going to get something over the next 10-12 days. It kinda has that feel. Break the back on the cold/dry and play the gradient game. Jan is our best month to score without a block. So basically a relatively short-lived relax/thaw. This season so far anything even near normal feels "warm" after all this cold. People need to remember the normal in mid January is still rather chilly. Anything AN imo next 10 days +/- is the transient type. I dont see any sort of sustained warmth on guidance. Do we see the epic look from back in mid-late December appearing? Probably not, but mind you our epic look didnt exactly produce either. It was those inbetween and transient blocky looks and brief amplification that gave some areas their snow. Punting winter now is the equivalent of the Patriots going into last years Super Bowl halftime hanging their heads assuming everything was lost. Plenty of time left. We got this. Different feel than past few seasons. We will have good chances at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Different feel than past few seasons. We will have good chances at the very least. Definitely agree this year feels completely different than the last 2. IMO, in a progressive pattern we're more likely to score with something that appears marginal at first, then pops up in the short range and goes our way. So I almost prefer several "sketchy-doesn't-look-all-that-promising" events for that reason. Probably not a year to see things coming 5-7 days out and have a rock solid trend all the way to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I want to add that week 4 of the weeklies still looks warm in the east but the -epo builds during that week. Right now ens completely agree with a +epo trough and eastern ridge building within 2 weeks. Seems likely to happen at this point. Question is how long it lasts. A week, 2 weeks, 3 days? Keep an eye on the -ao too. Starting to get interesting. Long range models don't do well picking up on changes there and sometimes they can be abrupt. If the ao goes solid negative then long range could look a lot different than anything we see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I want to add that week 4 of the weeklies still looks warm in the east but the -epo builds during that week. Right now ens completely agree with a +epo trough and eastern ridge building within 2 weeks. Seems likely to happen at this point. Question is how long it lasts. A week, 2 weeks, 3 days? Keep an eye on the -ao too. Starting to get interesting. Long range models don't do well picking up on changes there and sometimes they can be abrupt. If the ao goes solid negative then long range could look a lot different than anything we see right now. I think the Mjo phase we're entering in the coming week supports a warm period as well, but I'm going off memory whether that's accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 43 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Definitely agree this year feels completely different than the last 2. IMO, in a progressive pattern we're more likely to score with something that appears marginal at first, then pops up in the short range and goes our way. So I almost prefer several "sketchy-doesn't-look-all-that-promising" events for that reason. Probably not a year to see things coming 5-7 days out and have a rock solid trend all the way to game time. Yeah, I agree with you. Just about every event has gone in our favor in the short range. Event though most events have jackpotted those south and east of us, we've gone from nothing to snow within 72 hours of the events. We're already miles past where we were last year, and with until mid-late March to pull the plug on winter, we have plenty of time to get near climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Hmmm... 00z NAM at 84 hrs h5 for our Monday "event" has a pretty strong closed h5 low in western LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I think this adds to the ideas of a warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm... 00z NAM at 84 hrs h5 for our Monday "event" has a pretty strong closed h5 low in western LA So did the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: So did the euro. True, but the h5 low on here is moving more eastward than the Euro was I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just now, yoda said: True, but the h5 low on here is moving more eastward than the Euro was I believe Then we toss the euro and hug the NAM. Lol. I’m suspicious of what tricks the backside of this cold episode may do to the weekend model runs (based purely off recent trends of this winter so far) save today’s event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Euro is following the gfs with the Mon-Tues deal. The gfs was the first global to start squashing the southern wave and slowing things down. 18z intrigued me. It's a longshot but slow down the southern wave a little more and let the ns shortwave get out in front or phase perfectly then there's a chance to get something. I don't think precip will get here quick enough for the ice scenario. That could change once the pac sw gets closer. All models have struggled with timing off the pac since it turned cold. Guidance beyond 96 hours has been pretty bad this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 It is the NAM at 84 hours. But it is very warm. Would be nothing but a rain storm if extrapolated most likely. If we only had a nice 1040's HP over the lakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Definitely agree this year feels completely different than the last 2. IMO, in a progressive pattern we're more likely to score with something that appears marginal at first, then pops up in the short range and goes our way. So I almost prefer several "sketchy-doesn't-look-all-that-promising" events for that reason. Probably not a year to see things coming 5-7 days out and have a rock solid trend all the way to game time.Ggem is trying to pop something just past 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Euro is following the gfs with the Mon-Tues deal. The gfs was the first global to start squashing the southern wave and slowing things down. 18z intrigued me. It's a longshot but slow down the southern wave a little more and let the ns shortwave get out in front or phase perfectly then there's a chance to get something. I don't think precip will get here quick enough for the ice scenario. That could change once the pac sw gets closer. All models have struggled with timing off the pac since it turned cold. Guidance beyond 96 hours has been pretty bad this year. 18z ggem is a full phase going neutral slight negative at the Mississippi River with very cold 2m temps lingering in the region. However being on backside of hp and heights rising along coast make this a sketchy setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Animate the NAM really fast to see how dry it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ggem is trying to pop something just past 84 hours. Meets my sub-120hr criteria for this year -- LET'S DO IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z ggem is a full phase going neutral slight negative at the Mississippi River with very cold 2m temps lingering in the region. However being on backside of hp and heights rising along coast make this a sketchy setup. Would be a lot of ice down this way with some sleet and some snow along the northern tier. Just when I say precip prob won't make it in time. GFS wasn't close in comparison. Drove the southern wave even further away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Would be a lot of ice down this way with some sleet and some snow along the northern tier. Just when I say precip prob won't make it in time. GFS wasn't close in comparison. Drove the southern wave even further away. Yeah cmc is virtually alone. With that said do we toss its lr depiction of stormy and cold continuing? Hasnt done poorly in that regard this season. When euro and gfs have tried to go warmup the ggem has held its ground with boundary being near to our South and has won out most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 00z CMC looks similar to the 18z ggem at h5...marginal event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 How does the cmc get wintry weather into the area with the great lakes low? Seems it would be warmer with that set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 00z CMC looks similar to the 18z ggem at h5...marginal eventLooks rather threatening jan 11-12ish with bowling ball stj vorticity rolling east and plenty of sws riding along the ns boundary. HP keeps finding a way to moving South into plains then east. Good look this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Bowling ball disintegrates into nothing.......ns driven rainer. Yeah ok. I think i will stick with 84 hour and under forecasting. Too many surprises keep popping up sr/mr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah cmc is virtually alone. With that said do we toss its lr depiction of stormy and cold continuing? Hasnt done poorly in that regard this season. When euro and gfs have tried to go warmup the ggem has held its ground with boundary being near to our South and has won out most times. We're in a transition period after this weekend so a series of fronts seems likely. How it all shakes out and what that means for sensible wx....shrug... No blocking and progressive flow so using the rule of thumb of amped goes west is probably a good way to go. Timing and cold moving in and out leaves the door open for luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 How does the cmc get wintry weather into the area with the great lakes low? Seems it would be warmer with that set up. Fantasy digital snow. Its what we know and what we do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 13/14 looks good to me. This has been a odd year where everything shifts east not west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How does the cmc get wintry weather into the area with the great lakes low? Seems it would be warmer with that set up. Cmc is the perfect in situ cad event. Gets precip rolling shortly after sunrise when temps are in the low 20's. It's going to be pretty cold sunday night. Once precip gets going it locks surface cold in even though midlevels warm quickly. It can be hard to scour low level cold out even with southerly flow and no hp to the north. I wish the cmc had soundings on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is the perfect in situ cad event. Gets precip rolling shortly after sunrise when temps are in the low 20's. It's going to be pretty cold sunday night. Once precip gets going it locks surface cold in even though midlevels warm quickly. It can be hard to scour low level cold out even with southerly flow and no hp to the north. I wish the cmc had soundings on TT. For those who get snow... GGEM through 102 And for those who want ice ice baby (yes, thats almost 0.50" ice at DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Looks like some ice again on euro but not much precip Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 lol Euro from Day 7 to 9... thats a weird evolution with the SLP in the SE... and you'd think there would be some CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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