New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[osfan24]

A bit off topic but I see the February 2006 storm referenced quite a bit on here and I don't remember it at all. I have a pretty good memory, especially when it comes to snow events, and that's one that totally escapes me. I was a student and living in College Park at the time so maybe that's why, but I remember February 2003 like it was yesterday.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

A bit off topic but I see the February 2006 storm referenced quite a bit on here and I don't remember it at all. I have a pretty good memory, especially when it comes to snow events, and that's one that totally escapes me. I was a student and living in College Park at the time so maybe that's why, but I remember February 2003 like it was yesterday.

That was a warm storm. Surface above freezing at onset and barely got below during. I got somewhere around 14" IIRC. Proverbial mashed potato storm with wet ground underneath. At least in my hood. 

[gymengineer]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

A bit off topic but I see the February 2006 storm referenced quite a bit on here and I don't remember it at all. I have a pretty good memory, especially when it comes to snow events, and that's one that totally escapes me. I was a student and living in College Park at the time so maybe that's why, but I remember February 2003 like it was yesterday.

The peak of it was after midnight to before sunrise on a Sunday.... not an ideal time for partying college students to pay much attention to it   (There's also some story about Ian not paying much attention to it either when he was living with Matt.)

Columbia, MD went over 20". College Park probably was 10-ish inches. Sunday felt pretty wintry with passing snow showers, but it was already melting by the afternoon. 

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

The peak of it was overnight Saturday night to before sunrise on Sunday.... not an ideal time for partying college students to pay much attention to it   (There's also some story about Ian not paying much attention to it either when he was living with Matt.)

Columbia, MD went over 20". College Park probably was 10-ish inches. Sunday felt pretty wintry with passing snow showers, but it was already melting by the afternoon. 

We did really well in reisterstown when things exploded between 2 and 5 a.m. 14-18 inches that compacted to 10-12 by late morning. 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey, I'm not a science rocket either but quitting isn't something I do until march 10th. Although recent years have told me that quitting on March 10th is pretty dumb too. 

I'm different than the snowpack fetish folks. I mean sure, I like ground covered for weeks too. It's nice to look at. But my favorite thing by quite a margin is watching snow fall and pile up. And if it melts in 24 hours I don't really care all that much because I'm already digging through model runs looking for the next time snow falls. 

I was tired as heck last night and didn't stay up much after the euro. But you know what? Walking the dog right as it started snowing and sticking was a really nice way to spend an hour. Storm totals sucked but I had a great walk on a cold night with snow falling. What's not to like?

I’m with you no doubt. My favorite memories of big storms are late night Jebwalks and midnight sledding (during pure rakeage) with the kids just to get first tracks in fresh pow. I’ve turned these kids into...well...me. And they love it! My 12 year old is always on Tropical Tidbits as well (after Snapchat of course). But guess what they don’t like...shovel day followed by wearing snow boots for a week or more straight. Gets old quick. My point is your point. Snow falling and enjoying those moments to their max is why I’m here. Ground cover for week?  Meh.  

That said, I’m not punting anything or anyone...unless Lucy pulls the ball a few more times. Then I might just have to punt Lucy...

Anyway on to the next one. I’m sure it’s around here somewhere!

[Bob Chill]

I just dug up my notes. I measured 14" clean after it tapered off but would have been 16-17 probably if I did the 6 hour thing. 

The satellite loop is iconic. Literal eye formed. It was a hybrid miller a/b IIRC. Low pressure was in the south and got picked up by a northern stream trough and blew up off the coast. I kept power but I remember a lot of folks losing it. Thunder, lightning, and white asteroids falling for hours. Caught the MA by surprise. Don't remember the forecast exactly but it over performed big. That one storm saved that winter because it was a crappy warm low snow winter until that storm hit. Maybe we have a redux and it saves this winter...

[osfan24]

13 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The peak of it was after midnight to before sunrise on a Sunday.... not an ideal time for partying college students to pay much attention to it   (There's also some story about Ian not paying much attention to it either when he was living with Matt.)

Columbia, MD went over 20". College Park probably was 10-ish inches. Sunday felt pretty wintry with passing snow showers, but it was already melting by the afternoon. 

College Park always seemed to get shafted by snow when I was there or even when I go back to visit. It seems like it runs a bit warm. It always seemed like it was really hard for the roads to get accumulation. I'm guessing we fell on the low end with that one down there. The weird thing is that my parking situation was horrendous and a good snow would have made it just a total disaster so I'm just miffed I can't remember it. I do remember being on a first date with a girl the night the 2003 blizzard was supposed to hit and I think I spent the entire time looking out the restaurant window. There was NOT a second date. 

[Deck Pic]

17 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The peak of it was after midnight to before sunrise on a Sunday.... not an ideal time for partying college students to pay much attention to it   (There's also some story about Ian not paying much attention to it either when he was living with Matt.)

Columbia, MD went over 20". College Park probably was 10-ish inches. Sunday felt pretty wintry with passing snow showers, but it was already melting by the afternoon. 

I got 11" in Mt Pleasant as well as thundersnow.  Around 7" fell in 3 hours.  Well worth staying up for...

[MountainGeek]

11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

 But guess what they don’t like...shovel day followed by wearing snow boots for a week or more straight. Gets old quick. My point is your point. Snow falling and enjoying those moments to their max is why I’m here. Ground cover for week?  Meh.  

Why would you ever need to shovel snow? Just call Jebman and he'd be right over to shovel like a rocket surgeon.

[Bob Chill]

Cohen's tweet might not be hype. The gefs has been busting low with the AO all winter so it's not the first piece of guidance I would use but there are other signs going on. Euro splits 50hpa over the next 10 days and the general state of the strat is disturbed instead of a concentric blue ball. A lot of expansive AN heights showing up around the arctic on op runs too. 

Pac looks like poop but if its not permanent AND we get some blocking, things can to turn literally on a dime. Just tossing some ideas and observations out there. This year has never been doom and gloom as far as the eye can see. I think we probably avoid that this year but not without hitting some bumps along the way. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

College Park always seemed to get shafted by snow when I was there or even when I go back to visit. It seems like it runs a bit warm. It always seemed like it was really hard for the roads to get accumulation. I'm guessing we fell on the low end with that one down there. The weird thing is that my parking situation was horrendous and a good snow would have made it just a total disaster so I'm just miffed I can't remember it. I do remember being on a first date with a girl the night the 2003 blizzard was supposed to hit and I think I spent the entire time looking out the restaurant window. There was NOT a second date. 

You did the right thing.  Girls come and go but a snow threat is not to be wasted.  +1 for you my friend.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We all have our prime setups and this coastal was never once looking good for areas west of the bay and even worse for areas west of the fall line. Our prime snow setup pretty much requires either a -NAO (west based optimal) and/or a 50/50. The -NAO will come back. There's no doubt about that. What year is another discussion. lol.

Our climo is what it is. Some years are good, some are passable, and some are disasters. We won't know where this one falls for a while. I will say that early snow is definitely not our thing so Dec was an over performer for much of the region even though it doesn't feel like it. My feelings aren't hurt with this coastal. It's a statistical anomaly that snow got as far west as it did. 

Well said. Totally agree with this. I’m not getting into this end of winter/are we done stuff when we are 2 weeks in and while signals point to relax and warm, not all do and enough can change in short order. Early stuff was bonus.  

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cohen's tweet might not be hype. The gefs has been busting low with the AO all winter so it's not the first piece of guidance I would use but there are other signs going on. Euro splits 50hpa over the next 10 days and the general state of the strat is disturbed instead of a concentric blue ball. A lot of expansive AN heights showing up around the arctic on op runs too. 

Pac looks like poop but if its not permanent AND we get some blocking, things can to turn literally on a dime. Just tossing some ideas and observations out there. This year has never been doom and gloom as far as the eye can see. I think we probably avoid that this year but not without hitting some bumps along the way. 

Yeah it's very early to just start punting winter. We have more than two months remaining to get something or multiple somethings. Things haven't broken our way yet, but 2016 looked awful and then we got an event of a lifetime. You just never know. And while there has been talk about a January thaw, there have been signs of a thaw in the distance for a week or two now and then they just disappear as they get closer in time. I think this last storm took a lot out of some between tracking it and how agonizingly close we came to a terrific storm.

[Deck Pic]

It starts earlier in N MD and other far locales, but the good climo period inside the beltway doesn't start in earnest until January 20th.  This is a good time for a warmup.  

[Cobalt]

Not trying to jump the gun, but precip signal is appearing for d8/d9 for a larger precip event. 

Snowfall mean does go up 2.5" during this time, and it looks like 4/20 members show a snow/ice event, with 1 huge outlier. A ways out, but could be next one to track after next Monday's messy event

[Ji]

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I just dug up my notes. I measured 14" clean after it tapered off but would have been 16-17 probably if I did the 6 hour thing. 

The satellite loop is iconic. Literal eye formed. It was a hybrid miller a/b IIRC. Low pressure was in the south and got picked up by a northern stream trough and blew up off the coast. I kept power but I remember a lot of folks losing it. Thunder, lightning, and white asteroids falling for hours. Caught the MA by surprise. Don't remember the forecast exactly but it over performed big. That one storm saved that winter because it was a crappy warm low snow winter until that storm hit. Maybe we have a redux and it saves this winter...

by the time i went out to shovel that snow, it had melted

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Not trying to jump the gun, but precip signal is appearing for d8/d9 for a larger precip event. 

Snowfall mean does go up 2.5" during this time, and it looks like 4/20 members show a snow/ice event, with 1 huge outlier. A ways out, but could be next one to track after next Monday's messy event

i wouldnt post about any event that showed 4/20 good solutions:)

[Cobalt]

Just now, Ji said:

i wouldnt post about any event that showed 4/20 good solutions:)

I'm just saying there's a precip signal 8 days out. Didn't post the individual members either, since it doesn't matter at this point

[Ji]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cohen's tweet might not be hype. The gefs has been busting low with the AO all winter so it's not the first piece of guidance I would use but there are other signs going on. Euro splits 50hpa over the next 10 days and the general state of the strat is disturbed instead of a concentric blue ball. A lot of expansive AN heights showing up around the arctic on op runs too. 

Pac looks like poop but if its not permanent AND we get some blocking, things can to turn literally on a dime. Just tossing some ideas and observations out there. This year has never been doom and gloom as far as the eye can see. I think we probably avoid that this year but not without hitting some bumps along the way. 

the key will be late week, if we start seeing some good stuff in the 10-15 day range

[NorthArlington101]

I'm just saying there's a precip signal 8 days out. Didn't post the individual members either, since it doesn't matter at this point

It was a weed joke I think.

[Cobalt]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

It was a weed joke I think.

 

Ah, I get it now. Read over it, but I get it now

[Bob Chill]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

the key will be late week, if we start seeing some good stuff in the 10-15 day range

Weeklies look pretty good if you believe them. Week 3 is the only crap week with a +EPO so basically the warm pattern showing up on the ens only lasts a week. Then the -EPO is back and even hints of -AO through week 4. First half of Feb looks pretty tasty overall. Fairly broad conus trough and cold enough. I typically only pay attention to week 3 because there seems to be some skill there. I'm good with a 1 week or so warm period and then a step down back to a more classic winter pattern into Feb. The end of week 6 is actually the coldest relative to normal in the east so a lot of ens must be seeing a cold pattern for it to show up that clearly. 

I have a hunch we're going to get something over the next 10-12 days. It kinda has that feel. Break the back on the cold/dry and play the gradient game. Jan is our best month to score without a block. 

[Yeoman]

i wouldnt post about any event that showed 4/20 good solutions:)

You don’t make 1700+ posts in a matter of a few weeks without most of it being nonsense

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I just dug up my notes. I measured 14" clean after it tapered off but would have been 16-17 probably if I did the 6 hour thing. 

The satellite loop is iconic. Literal eye formed. It was a hybrid miller a/b IIRC. Low pressure was in the south and got picked up by a northern stream trough and blew up off the coast. I kept power but I remember a lot of folks losing it. Thunder, lightning, and white asteroids falling for hours. Caught the MA by surprise. Don't remember the forecast exactly but it over performed big. That one storm saved that winter because it was a crappy warm low snow winter until that storm hit. Maybe we have a redux and it saves this winter...

I have no recollection of that storm.  What was the date?  Must've not been very noteworthy out here.  Other than the sleet/glacier in Feb 2007, I don't recall a single good storm here between Feb 2003 and Dec 2009.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

A bit off topic but I see the February 2006 storm referenced quite a bit on here and I don't remember it at all. I have a pretty good memory, especially when it comes to snow events, and that's one that totally escapes me. I was a student and living in College Park at the time so maybe that's why, but I remember February 2003 like it was yesterday.

I remember this one.  My ex lived in Baltimore city and it was fun as hell bar hopping in it.  I remember waking up the next day and driving home no problem other than the hangover.  The snow really didn't have a base because it was so wet.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I have no recollection of that storm.  What was the date?  Must've not been very noteworthy out here.  Other than the sleet/glacier in Feb 2007, I don't recall a single good storm here between Feb 2003 and Dec 2009.

Feb 12th-13th. Winchester reported 9-10". HGR got over a foot. You must have done pretty well. 

Iconic sat presentation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_2006#/media/File:GreatBlizzardof2006.jpg

[Jebman]

Winter is still on for the Mid Atlantic. We got the cold and we WILL get snow!

It is ONLY Jan 4!

[gymengineer]

23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I have no recollection of that storm.  What was the date?  Must've not been very noteworthy out here.  Other than the sleet/glacier in Feb 2007, I don't recall a single good storm here between Feb 2003 and Dec 2009.

2/11-12/06- local bullseye as I said was in Howard County, MD. Snow map on Ray Martin’s page: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06.html

Edited to add: this event set NYC’s single storm record, breaking the 1947 total, even though snow depth was nowhere near the total. That total was beaten by the 1/16 blizzard.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I just dug up my notes. I measured 14" clean after it tapered off but would have been 16-17 probably if I did the 6 hour thing. 

The satellite loop is iconic. Literal eye formed. It was a hybrid miller a/b IIRC. Low pressure was in the south and got picked up by a northern stream trough and blew up off the coast. I kept power but I remember a lot of folks losing it. Thunder, lightning, and white asteroids falling for hours. Caught the MA by surprise. Don't remember the forecast exactly but it over performed big. That one storm saved that winter because it was a crappy warm low snow winter until that storm hit. Maybe we have a redux and it saves this winter...

The forecast Saturday morning was actually ok- 8-12” type ranges depending on the outlet. Models were showing >1” liquid and Ji was happy. The event started as rain though, and mixed with and changed to snow by sunset here but had difficulty accumulating. Bob Ryan got spooked and cut back the totals to 3-6” in the evening. 

Matt was rallying the troops late evening, even though the event smelled like a bust, by updating us all on the RAP. The RAP continued to show run-after-run great rates after midnight. What happened predawn was better than the models showed with a deathband in the customary along the fall line location. 

I measured 14” in Potomac, MD. My cul-de-sac street that usually took a long time to be touched was already down to blacktop pavement by 8 am. 

[clueless]

6 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Winter is still on for the Mid Atlantic. We got the cold and we WILL get snow!

It is ONLY Jan 4!

Yes.  December overperforned.  Any other winter I would just start to get interested.  We know what we are up against.  But, hey, I’m not giving up yet.  I have to admit it’s pretty sad out here for us out West. Eh.  

[Cobalt]

21 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Winter is still on for the Mid Atlantic. We got the cold and we WILL get snow!

It is ONLY Jan 4!

You are the Nostradamus of winter. I trust you 100%

On 1/17/2016 at 4:36 PM, Jebman said:

It's gon snow.