New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Climate175]

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

meh, it's a Nina

They always stink unless, as you said, we get lucky; problem is, we usually don't get lucky.

The pattern has only produced minor events, not unlike most Ninas. So unless we get lucky on Monday (there we go again), we fail with this pattern, so I am more than happy for the advertised warm up.

My personal opinion is that if it's not going to snow, or worse, we have to endure big storms that barely miss, I'll take a warm up and hope for a different cold pattern to return.  Maybe it will, and maybe it won't. Who knows? But like you, I don't care to relive 00/01. I feel confident is saying, however, we will if we don't reshuffle and hope for a better hand that comes with luck.

At least the sun is starting to come out now.  

I'm right there with you Mitch. I'm totally good with where ensembles are taking us. Still out there in time but for now it's unanimous that the epo flips + and pretty much all of NA goes AN within 2 weeks. Could it last the rest of winter? Sure but I doubt it. I'm ready to get back outside and not look like the little brother in A Christmas Story. 

@ji EPS has your storm in the 12th-14th range. Snow is an underdog but it's there. My guess is without a block it goes west but that's just an odds play. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm right there with you Mitch. I'm totally good with where ensembles are taking us. Still out there in time but for now it's unanimous that the epo flips + and pretty much all of NA goes AN within 2 weeks. Could it last the rest of winter? Sure but I doubt it. I'm ready to get back outside and not look like the little brother in A Christmas Story. 

@ji EPS has your storm in the 12th-14th range. Snow is an underdog but it's there. My guess is without a block it goes west but that's just an odds play. 

Sure to garner a chuckle from more than a few, but the CFS2 is now advertising on the link at TT a different look to FEB & MAR. Maybe it'll bring something better. We can only hope. But, to be honest, it's hard to believe things will change enough to get us in the money next time or any time this winter. Seasonal memory is a biatch.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

meh, it's a Nina

They always stink unless, as you said, we get lucky; problem is, we usually don't get lucky.

The pattern has only produced minor events, not unlike most Ninas. So unless we get lucky on Monday (there we go again), we fail with this pattern, so I am more than happy for the advertised warm up.

My personal opinion is that if it's not going to snow, or worse, we have to endure big storms that barely miss, I'll take a warm up and hope for a different cold pattern to return.  Maybe it will, and maybe it won't. Who knows? But like you, I don't care to relive 00/01. I feel confident is saying, however, we will if we don't reshuffle and hope for a better hand that comes with luck.

At least the sun is starting to come out now.  

But the luck thing is required in 90% of our winters. There is only like 1 a decade where this comes easy. The others that turn out ok we have to get lucky. Or else most of our winters would be crap. 

Ninas are skewed harder for snow here because they are northern stream dominant. And that cuts down on our chances of a big juiced up gulf storm. Take those away and it's harder to have a big epic year. I also suspect the progressive northern stream makes it harder to get and sustain a -nao. 1996 was just a huge anomaly. 

Then even when we do get a miller a the lack of a strong stj usually means they get going later and rely on Atlantic coastal development and aren't big juiced up gulf lows as they cross the Mississippi valley. So then it stacks the odds they go down like this or Boxing Day. Even two of the Nina hits we're lucky. The type of track Jan 2000 took is rare most storms starting where it did miss. And feb 2006 really had a tight snowfall distribution for a miller a storm and luckily it took the perfect track. Scoring in a Nina requires luck but it can be done. Without any significant events though it's hard to beat climo. So have to hope we get more chances and get lucky. 

Lastly I could have easily seen this pattern work out fine. My expectations in a cold pattern are different then a warm one. If it's warm and going to melt fast it better be a big one. Big storms are exciting even if it's warm after. But a 3-4" snow if it's going to be 50 the next dad. Ehh that's just a stat padder to me doesn't make me feel better about the sensible winter weather.  But if I can hold snow because it's cold just get my grass covered with 3" and I'm happy. We could have easily had 3-4" last weekend then aother 2-3" today and I would have been very very happy with a nice 6" snowpack and a few more frigid days to enjoy it. That better fate was just missed barely. So id rather take my chances with a cold pattern. The chances of getting lucky for what I want are better then rooting for some fluke mecs in a crap pattern. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sure to garner a chuckle from more than a few, but the CFS2 is now advertising on the link at TT a different look to FEB & MAR. Maybe it'll bring something better. We can only hope. But, to be honest, it's hard to believe things will change enough to get us in the money next time or any time this winter. Seasonal memory is a biatch.

Weeklies look pretty good starting the end of the first week of Feb. I'm expecting tonight's weekly run to be an inferno week 3 and probably 4. lol

[Hurricanegiants]

Can somebody give me the skinny on Sunday night into Monday?

[Ger]

I feel like today is a good example of the difference between our climo and NYC's climo. It really has less to do with temps than one might believe.

[poolz1]

I'm game for a reshuffle.  Odds are this general pattern comes back in Feb....We have seen the pattern drivers play together and the Nina, mjo, strat doesnt seem to be making dramatic shifts.  They will line up again as the mjo heads toward the cold phases later in the month.   I am fine with this same general pattern in feb...especially mid/late feb when wavelengths are shorter and temp contrasts are greater.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sure to garner a chuckle from more than a few, but the CFS2 is now advertising on the link at TT a different look to FEB & MAR. Maybe it'll bring something better. We can only hope. But, to be honest, it's hard to believe things will change enough to get us in the money next time or any time this winter. Seasonal memory is a biatch.

Ugh we've had this seasonal memory discussion before. Most recently in 2015 when you were trying to cancel winter after we missed another storm to New England in early feb and then we went on an epic run. 

1995 was a wasteland then we got a mecs in early feb. 1997 same. 1999 was a bust until march. 2000 sucked except a 10 day epic period 2005 we torched into mid January then were cold and snowy the rest of the winter. 2006 started cold then was a torch but we still scored a MECS during. 2007 torched into late Jan then was one of our coldest februaries. 2009 was a total waste then we got a big snow in march. 2016 was a torch winter with one of our all time HECS in the middle of it. 

I agree that the odds of an epic winter have gone way down because we have now wasted a decent part of it and when we start wasting chances that's usually not the sign of a great year. But it doesn't mean we can't score one good storm or get on a run later.  

I know you really really buy into this but the data just doesn't support it.  For every year that had one consistent theme it pattern the whole winter there are 2 that had a major flip or variance and it snowed after a long snowless period or went from snowy to not.  

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ger said:

I feel like today is a good example of the difference between our climo and NYC's climo. It really has less to do with temps than one might believe.

The only difference that mattered anywhere with this coastal is longitude. 

[Ger]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only difference that mattered anywhere with this coastal is longitude. 

With the way we're setup with our longitude and latitude, it's not a surprise we score less than areas to our N and E. Sometimes, it just burns me up tho that people in the places to our N and E seem to think we're in Florida, or North Carolina some place, with hot temps to blame for our sorry climo. Very annoying.

[MountainGeek]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it's warm and going to melt fast it better be a big one. Big storms are exciting even if it's warm after. But a 3-4" snow if it's going to be 50 the next dad. Ehh that's just a stat padder to me doesn't make me feel better about the sensible winter weather.  But if I can hold snow because it's cold just get my grass covered with 3" and I'm happy. We could have easily had 3-4" last weekend then aother 2-3" today and I would have been very very happy with a nice 6" snowpack and a few more frigid days to enjoy it. That better fate was just missed barely. 

Precisely this. For me, the thing that makes this extended cold period so maddeningly frustrating is the missed opportunity for extended snow cover. I don't need huge totals, just a few inches that lasts for many days with good cold to get that "we actually had a winter this year" vibe. 3-6" on the ground for 3 weeks with some good winds and blowing snow would be perfectly acceptable.

The fails so far this year for us westerners are getting to the point where it's almost comical -- we've been consistently getting left out in the cold (ha) this entire period while north, south, east, and west cash in, in many cases with double-digits. Zilch from the Miller A, and about 1" TOTAL from the various dustings in Dec.

Did Deep Thunder manage to shift the DC snow hole 45 miles NW and I missed it?

[MountainGeek]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only difference that mattered anywhere with this coastal is longitude. 

Yeah sticking out a good bit further east into the Atlantic kinda sorta helps just a tiny bit for NE.

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree there is still a window but it's closing. Unfortunately our chances as a rare prolonged snowcover period has closed. Whatever we get after this weekend would be the kind of event where you better enjoy it while it's happening because 24-48 hours later there likely would be no traces of it left. 

After that it looks ugly. Ironically the gefs wants to flip the AO negative but at the same time all the guidance progresses the Pacific trough into the Pacific NW. That will flood the conus with warmth and it won't matter what the heights up top are doing. 

Have to hope it's temporary and not the start of a long term pattern. I have no idea which. But that's why I've been shaking my head at the people wanting a warm up to shake things up. As if their assuming a warm up would be some one week thing. Sure that's possible. But it's equally as likely that this new pattern establishes and lasts as long as the previous one.

The -epo pattern really lasted the better part of 6 weeks. But it didn't hit during peak snow climo. So we wasted most of it. Then we got unlucky a few times. We did OK but what if this was our big window and all we did is eek out a few minor events. That's my fear. 

If the coming +epo pattern lasts even just 3-4 weeks we will waste through our peak snow climo.  It's the timing of this that has me pretty worried for the winter as a whole right now. We had a pretty decent pattern and didn't get lucky and it came a bit earlier then ideal so we wasted the first half of it. Now right as we enter peak climo the torch cometh. 

I am not sold this fatalistic future will come to pass. The epo could flip back negative. The nao could go negative for a moment and force something under us and in peak climo that can work even in a general warm period. Had a feb storm in 1997 that fits that bill. But it wouldn't shock me either if we go into a 4 week crap pattern and come mid February we're back in desperation mode trying to get anything to save at least something from winter. 

I really think that we have a few years that are just loaded patterns. 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. Then there are some years where it's gonna suck like 2002, 2008, and 2012.  Most of the rest though fall to luck. We will have some windows and opportunities and some periods that are shutout crap patterns. Get lucky and hit a few times during the opportunities and it's not a bad winter. Strike out too often and the winter is remembered worse then perhaps the pattern was. If Jan 2000 missed that year was crap along 95. 2001 we just missed huge coastals in late December, early February and early march. One of those hits and it's a good winter. Instead we remember them opposite. 

I fear this year could end up like 2001. We missed a more significant event dec 9 by a bit. We missed a decent 3-5" snow last weekend by 50 miles.  Just north of me had 4". And now we struck out on a miller a coastal. We only get so many chances most years. Hopefully I'm totally wrong and I do believe we will have more chances before it's all said and done so it's not over but these are the demons running through my mind today. 

We can hope! =) 

 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Yeah sticking out a good bit further east into the Atlantic kinda sorta helps just a tiny bit for NE.

We all have our prime setups and this coastal was never once looking good for areas west of the bay and even worse for areas west of the fall line. Our prime snow setup pretty much requires either a -NAO (west based optimal) and/or a 50/50. The -NAO will come back. There's no doubt about that. What year is another discussion. lol.

Our climo is what it is. Some years are good, some are passable, and some are disasters. We won't know where this one falls for a while. I will say that early snow is definitely not our thing so Dec was an over performer for much of the region even though it doesn't feel like it. My feelings aren't hurt with this coastal. It's a statistical anomaly that snow got as far west as it did. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS gets closer to phasing the Monday deal...too bad we don't have a cold high in place for this one.  

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

GFS gets closer to phasing the Monday deal...too bad we don't have a cold high for this one.  

I'll tell you what...there's a miracle longshot embedded somewhere in this panel. 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ugh we've had this seasonal memory discussion before. Most recently in 2015 when you were trying to cancel winter after we missed another storm to New England in early feb and then we went on an epic run. 

1995 was a wasteland then we got a mecs in early feb. 1997 same. 1999 was a bust until march. 2000 sucked except a 10 day epic period 2005 we torched into mid January then were cold and snowy the rest of the winter. 2006 started cold then was a torch but we still scored a MECS during. 2007 torched into late Jan then was one of our coldest februaries. 2009 was a total waste then we got a big snow in march. 2016 was a torch winter with one of our all time HECS in the middle of it. 

I agree that the odds of an epic winter have gone way down because we have now wasted a decent part of it and when we start wasting chances that's usually not the sign of a great year. But it doesn't mean we can't score one good storm or get on a run later.  

I know you really really buy into this but the data just doesn't support it.  For every year that had one consistent theme it pattern the whole winter there are 2 that had a major flip or variance and it snowed after a long snowless period or went from snowy to not.  

 

Well, I was pissed in 15 because we kept missing but started a thread in early Feb saying I saw a change and it happened.  Look for it. The thread is still there. As for atmospheric memory, I'll think what I want and you think what you want. Lol

I'm not saying the season is dead. I'm saying we've caught a cold that has us down and the drs. can't help.

[NorthArlington101]

I'll tell you what...there's a miracle longshot embedded somewhere in this panel. 

Sorry for the noob question, just trying to learn. I assume the miracle is the phase, but how does that help with the ground temp issue? This sounds dumb even when I write it out lol.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Sorry for the noob question, just trying to learn. I assume the miracle is the phase, but how does that help with the ground temp issue? This sounds dumb even when I write it out lol.

 

Paste bomb. It's obviously not going to happen this run but there is cold to tap and a phase would wrap it in. 100+ hours is an eternity in modeland too. I've seen some ensembles do something like this. EPS has a couple paste bombs baked in but few and far between but hey, we got nothing else to do for a while...haha

[cae]

GEPS has a pretty strong signal for ZR on Monday.  GEFS does not.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

There's a definite pessimistic streak in this thread in the past couple of days.  I can totally understand that, looking at the consistently advertised warm-up in the models and ensembles especially after next week.  Maybe we'll squeak something in early next week with that one system before things go bad for awhile, but I'm not sold on that yet in terms of the timing and what cold air might be left by then.  Late next week and beyond is a stinker to be sure, looks like much of NA gets flooded with Pacific air as the EPO trough plants itself near the West Coast.  Hopefully, that won't be a prolonged pattern, but that remains to be seen.  I'm still keeping optimism that we'll have more chances toward the end of the month and in February, but as some have alluded to, if we end up losing 2-3 weeks "waiting" and suddenly it's nearly mid-February, that window gets small in a hurry.  I'd wager the temperatures we've experienced since the Holidays and through this upcoming weekend are the coldest we'll see for the entire season; I doubt we see that level again, at least not consistently.  But we don't need skin-chafing cold to get good snow.

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I'm game for a reshuffle.  Odds are this general pattern comes back in Feb....We have seen the pattern drivers play together and the Nina, mjo, strat doesnt seem to be making dramatic shifts.  They will line up again as the mjo heads toward the cold phases later in the month.   I am fine with this same general pattern in feb...especially mid/late feb when wavelengths are shorter and temp contrasts are greater.

I do agree that a replay of the same general pattern could be better in feb with shorter wavelengths 

[BristowWx]

58 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I'm game for a reshuffle.  Odds are this general pattern comes back in Feb....We have seen the pattern drivers play together and the Nina, mjo, strat doesnt seem to be making dramatic shifts.  They will line up again as the mjo heads toward the cold phases later in the month.   I am fine with this same general pattern in feb...especially mid/late feb when wavelengths are shorter and temp contrasts are greater.

Not sure punting the rest of Jan is great solution.  It's the 4th.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure punting the rest of Jan is great solution.  It's the 4th.  

We have a better chance at getting a warning level event over the next 10 days than we've had over last 2 weeks. Beyond that looks like a shutout pattern but that's an eternity away in weather land. How long it lasts assuming it ever comes is not even worth thinking about. 

[MountainGeek]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Have you been looking at the long range (15 day)  GEFS and GEPS?

Don't tell JI, but winter's over (again), at least for a while, if they come true.

If we're going with what we've seen so far this season, the long range doesn't know what it wants to do from one week to the next. 

I think the lesson so far this year is to not take anything too seriously more than 7 days out (bad OR good).

But it is quite useful for trolling Ji....carry on!  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We have a better chance at getting a warning level event over the next 10 days than we've had over last 2 weeks. Beyond that looks like a shutout pattern but that's an eternity away in weather land. How long it lasts assuming it ever comes is not even worth thinking about. 

Yeah. Only thing missing "on the models" for Monday is cold. But just because they don't show it now doesn't mean it won't show up as we get closer. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We have a better chance at getting a warning level event over the next 10 days than we've had over last 2 weeks. Beyond that looks like a shutout pattern but that's an eternity away in weather land. How long it lasts assuming it ever comes is not even worth thinking about. 

Not worried.  Nothing in the LR has been really accurate and it's January.  We can take our chances.  I learned from this event that nothing is to be taken for granted. Meso/global etc just noise until it's actually snowing and the radar looks solid.  Even then you can fail.  But I had the best time tracking.  My eye is twitching from lack of sleep but I can sleep when I'm dead.

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We have a better chance at getting a warning level event over the next 10 days than we've had over last 2 weeks. Beyond that looks like a shutout pattern but that's an eternity away in weather land. How long it lasts assuming it ever comes is not even worth thinking about. 

I’m no rocket meteorologist, but punting on 2nd down won’t get us the home run we’re looking for. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’m no rocket meteorologist, but punting on 2nd down won’t get us the home run we’re looking for. 

Hey, I'm not a science rocket either but quitting isn't something I do until march 10th. Although recent years have told me that quitting on March 10th is pretty dumb too. 

I'm different than the snowpack fetish folks. I mean sure, I like ground covered for weeks too. It's nice to look at. But my favorite thing by quite a margin is watching snow fall and pile up. And if it melts in 24 hours I don't really care all that much because I'm already digging through model runs looking for the next time snow falls. 

I was tired as heck last night and didn't stay up much after the euro. But you know what? Walking the dog right as it started snowing and sticking was a really nice way to spend an hour. Storm totals sucked but I had a great walk on a cold night with snow falling. What's not to like?