WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 With how cold the ground will be, I’d expect a lot of icing still if temps only get to 33-34 Monday like the GFS and Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: With how cold the ground will be, I’d expect a lot of icing still if temps only get to 33-34 Monday like the GFS and Euro show. That's what I was thinking. Man, I'm tired of settling though...I'd take a nice ice event. Everything looks promising long range and then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: With how cold the ground will be, I’d expect a lot of icing still if temps only get to 33-34 Monday like the GFS and Euro show. Yup, we saw that exact phenomenon in 2014 and 2015. Even in downtown DC people were wiping out on sidewalks while surface temps were above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: That's what I was thinking. Man, I'm tired of settling though...I'd take a nice ice event. Everything looks promising long range and then.... Just now, stormtracker said: That's what I was thinking. Man, I'm tired of settling though...I'd take a nice ice event. Everything looks promising long range and then.... i was actually excited yesterday about seeing legit ice....we are in the deepest part of the valley man and there is nothing to get us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We can sometimes do OK with a front end thump out here in setups like this. We seem to hold onto the cold a little better than east for some reason. You would think elevation would actually hurt in these types of events as the upper levels warm up. There is no doubt that the upper levels will heat very quickly so it really doesnt matter. But I am so snow starved at this point I would take a slushy ice storm and call it a success. Yes. I am hoping we can get a quick few inches before a change over to ice/rain. Been a brutal start to winter with this much cold and basically no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i was actually excited yesterday about seeing legit ice....we are in the deepest part of the valley man and there is nothing to get us out Yup..we've tunneled under the deepest part of the valley attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I hope we trend back to a historic ice event This winter has been really tough so far. We keep hunting I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Hey, had we gotten a foot of snow with those warm temps on the way, we'd just have to watch it melt in a couple days. Seems to me we lucked out. That's exactly how I'm rationalizing today. I'd rather take out behind the shed and be done with it quickly. It's painful to watch something you love suffer for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's what I was thinking. Man, I'm tired of settling though...I'd take a nice ice event. Everything looks promising long range and then.... Word. While I hunt BIG storms my measure of a nice event is a Winter Storm Watch and then a verified Warning level snow area wide. We didn't have one of those last year, and we haven't had one yet this year, so...definitely not great from my perspective, even though it has been plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Many areas are at or above climo to this point . Speaking for Md mostly . I know A lot of Central Md and east for sure . Far Western and sw burbs not so much . I can't complain at all imby .. ive seen it snow 8 or 9 separate days ( totaling over 9" ) thus far...and a rememberable New Years morning below 0 temp. Great start with 2 1/2 + months of winter left. Yup, BWI and IAD are at or above climo and today’s snow puts DCA just below. Taking a big step back, I still see this as season 2 after our stretch of three consecutive way-above average snowfall seasons. To even have a fighting chance at median snowfall (~10” at DCA) for this season, and not immediately writing it off as two consecutive complete clunkers is already a plus for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 GFS looks better at 96 on 12z. Vort tracking further to the south this run, with a large 2m temp gradient all the way down to ATL. At 102, closed contour over southeast Arkansas, whereas 6z had it over central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Many areas are at or above climo to this point . Speaking for Md / DE mostly . I know A lot of Central Md and east for sure . Far Western and sw burbs not so much . I can't complain at all imby .. ive seen it snow 8 or 9 separate days ( totaling over 9" ) thus far...and a rememberable New Years morning below 0 temp. Great start with 2 1/2 + months of winter left. Most are probably at or barely above climo so far, but it's also been very cold, so you could argue we've wasted a prime opportunity. This storm is a perfect example. There for the taking but didn't work out for us. If the next couple weeks aren't great and then the mid-to-late January thaw is real, it's getting late early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 GFS sure wants to keep the streams separate and squash the southern vort. It brings up a discussion that we brought up recently...let the northern vort race out in front of the southern one so there's a bettern column to work with. Would be similar to a 13-14 event where a front clears and a wave runs up it. Unlikely but on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS sure wants to keep the streams separate and squash the southern vort. It brings up a discussion that we brought up recently...let the northern vort race out in front of the southern one so there's a bettern column to work with. Would be similar to a 13-14 event where a front clears and a wave runs up it. Unlikely but on the table. CMC is sounding more like the Euro. Who do you take at this point, american or european? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: CMC is sounding more like the Euro. Who do you take at this point, american or european? It's been a weird year. Things have gotten squashed instead of amplified as leads shorten. Euro has tried to amplify things too much in the mid range. My guess is the GFS is probably more right but that's a total guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS sure wants to keep the streams separate and squash the southern vort. It brings up a discussion that we brought up recently...let the northern vort race out in front of the southern one so there's a bettern column to work with. Would be similar to a 13-14 event where a front clears and a wave runs up it. Unlikely but on the table. "Squashed" is starting to become the word of the winter, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's been a weird year. Things have gotten squashed instead of amplified as leads shorten. Euro has tried to amplify things too much in the mid range. My guess is the GFS is probably more right but that's a total guess. whatever model gives us the least precip will probably work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: whatever model gives us the least precip will probably work We're due for an amplified rain storm. We should be able to score that in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Whatever frozen, in any form, that falls Monday would be history come sundown Tuesday. Now this is a January thaw if I ever saw one. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018010412&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=306 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: 7 degrees for a forecast low Sunday morning and plain rain 36 hours later? That’s a special kick in the nuts. Its what we do here. Those of us who screamed "we need a pattern change" from all this cold weather. Well here she comes, good old mother torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Whatever frozen, in any form, that falls Monday would be history come sundown Tuesday. Now this is a January thaw if I ever saw one. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018010412&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=306 Pretty good inversion though. Surface isn't warm at all in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty good inversion though. Surface isn't warm at all in the east. True. And the trough is still over Japan so cold will make a return. Snow? Idk, hopefully the warm up will reshuffle the deck. We only need a small change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Whatever frozen, in any form, that falls Monday would be history come sundown Tuesday. Now this is a January thaw if I ever saw one. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018010412&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=306 Thats crazy. 3 days ago we were suppossed get another arctic shot. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It can get really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Its what we do here. Those of us who screamed "we need a pattern change" from all this cold weather. Well here she comes, good old mother torch. Mother “torch” is not the first word that comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Yes sir...seen this very scenerio play out a few times. Artic outbreak followed by similar storm setup as Mon.... with surface temps above freezing . Ground being uber cold. A few years ago I saw 34 and fr rain accret on everything . the Feb 2014 ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 56 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Many areas are at or above climo to this point . Speaking for Md / DE mostly . I know A lot of Central Md and east for sure . Far Western and sw burbs not so much . I can't complain at all imby .. ive seen it snow 8 or 9 separate days ( totaling over 9" ) thus far...and a rememberable New Years morning below 0 temp. Great start with 2 1/2 + months of winter left. That is what makes our area so unique. And probably one of the toughest areas to be a met in all honesty. But yes. Those of us to the west have been screwed for two years straight at this point. That doesnt mean we wont score one of those 12 inchers while east rains later this winter. It would just be nice to have an event where everyone in our subforum is hyped up. It is a lot more fun that way. And that still might happen. There is A LOT of winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 56 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Many areas are at or above climo to this point . Speaking for Md / DE mostly . I know A lot of Central Md and east for sure . Far Western and sw burbs not so much . I can't complain at all imby .. ive seen it snow 8 or 9 separate days ( totaling over 9" ) thus far...and a rememberable New Years morning below 0 temp. Great start with 2 1/2 + months of winter left. Your right. I should of said for western areas. I'm in Smithsburg. Close to Hagerstown. Has been very close to a Snow less winter up here so far. I' m at 1.0 so far for the winter. Great to see eastern areas doing good though. Glad someone in this forum is doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I go from 15 to 33 degrees at the surface from hour 96 to 102 according to the CMC. I am not buying that. Once again it appears the models will struggle with just how cold the surface will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 If anyone's curious about how the globals did for the most recent storm, I put up a gif of their forecasts in the storm thread. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50758-jan-4th-coastal-obsdisc/?do=findComment&comment=4758273 Weather.us doesn't have these plots for the RGEMs and NAMs (as far as I can tell), so it's harder to put together a similar graphic for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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