WVclimo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Too early to take these kind of details verbatim, but with being on the outside looking in with tomorrow's storm... Euro is 0.50"+ of freezing rain in my yard, and temps only briefly get as high as 30 during the afternoon on Monday. Most of the event as depicted would be with temps 26-28 here. Precip is never real heavy, but falls steadily all day. With the surface as frozen as it will be at the outset, that would be a major ice storm for my part of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A lot of support for an ice storm here on Monday showing up on the EPS. Well over half and plenty of significant ones. Control looks identical to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of support for an ice storm here on Monday showing up on the EPS. Well over half and plenty of significant ones. Control looks identical to the op. i should cancel winter more often. EPS shows below normal surface temps for most of the period and it gets us into the blue snow wise lol. Maybe we are still tracking up until the 15th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i should cancel winter more often. EPS shows below normal surface temps for most of the period and it gets us into the blue snow wise lol. Maybe we are still tracking up until the 15th! How is that possible??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Kind of excited about the storm in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Kind of excited about the storm in 5 days. Isn’t the HP in a bad spot so SE winds would erode the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs says what Monday event? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Jan 13 last hurrah before winter ends?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs says what Monday event? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I love this hobby LMAO God I wish I was a normal person that hated winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Jan 13 last hurrah before winter ends? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You're looking at the wrong model. 12z euro and 18z gem for Monday: And 18z GFS for next Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You're looking at the wrong model. 12z euro and 18z gem for Monday: And 18z GFS for next SaturdayI was commenting on how gfs had nothing Monday but another shot on the 13th which may be our final shot before pattern shift Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You're looking at the wrong model. 12z euro and 18z gem for Monday: And 18z GFS for next Saturday Heh! Maybe we'll be tracking a bit more than originally thought as we get toward mid-month! I honestly haven't looked much at the medium range recently, but the potential ice Monday certainly bears watching. This event you show from the GFS the following Saturday...I haven't checked the upper levels, but offhand it appears that nice 1043 high is moving out ahead of the low. But that's getting into la-la land, and it beats looking at a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm telling you.. there's a lot of potential energy sitting around. It could easily be 70s to 80 one day in January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: Gfs says what Monday event? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk also by and large says what warm up. after all we've been through, and still have to go through, i'll be glad to wait until next week to see where we are really headed. Lots if model runs/indicies can change a plenty in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I'm telling you.. there's a lot of potential energy sitting around. It could easily be 70s to 80 one day in January or February. Pretty much describes every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I'm telling you.. there's a lot of potential energy sitting around. It could easily be 70s to 80 one day in January or February. Shut up Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 euro really backed off the ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Ji said: euro really backed off the ice storm You shocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You shocked? Do you think he has that emotion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 06z GFS erodes any cold air for the next event pretty quick. Looks rainy. Then another rain event later in the run - other than that pretty dry looking. Last nights 0z CMC also has the system and bring a bit more ice but it goes over to a driving rain pretty quickly it seems. What a winter so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 degrees for a forecast low Sunday morning and plain rain 36 hours later? That’s a special kick in the nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 7 degrees for a forecast low Sunday morning and plain rain 36 hours later? That’s a special kick in the nuts. *weenie* Don't worry, the models are undergoing the strength of the cold wedge at this range *weenie* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Cold/dry to warm/wet. That's how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Cold/dry to warm/wet. That's how we roll. True dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 GFS is 33/34 and rain. If we can will a storm west we can will it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6Z GFS long range only shows moisture for us when it's warm. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 19 hours ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of support for an ice storm here on Monday showing up on the EPS. Well over half and plenty of significant ones. Control looks identical to the op. so what happened. The EPS is still showing negative 2m temp anomolies for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: 7 degrees for a forecast low Sunday morning and plain rain 36 hours later? That’s a special kick in the nuts. Hey, had we gotten a foot of snow with those warm temps on the way, we'd just have to watch it melt in a couple days. Seems to me we lucked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: so what happened. The EPS is still showing negative 2m temp anomolies for Monday It comes down to precip onset. EPS (and GEFS) are mixed. The solutions that get precip in here before 18z on Monday are mostly icy and the ones that start after 18z are mostly cold rain. It's an insitu-cad setup so we need precip to start before the surface warms during the day on Monday. There's still a cluster that start as snow. Hard to tell from last night's run with the current storm on the panels. Personally, I don't think snow is going to be something we track with this but there's a chance still. It's a terrible snow setup though so if there's snow south of PA consider it very lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 We can sometimes do OK with a front end thump out here in setups like this. We seem to hold onto the cold a little better than east for some reason. You would think elevation would actually hurt in these types of events as the upper levels warm up. There is no doubt that the upper levels will heat very quickly so it really doesnt matter. But I am so snow starved at this point I would take a slushy ice storm and call it a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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