Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, could be a sneaky high impact event. Euro looks much different for this event. A bit more GFS like in some ways, but a stronger shortwave to the south torches the column. Still, I like the trend away from back to back cutters. Yeah, me too. If I remember correctly, 2013/14 had an event fairly similar where all guidance showed rain and a snowstorm in N Pennsylvania on Feb 28th (storm was near March 4th), and then models trended ever so slowly South, and we got 6" out of the event. Same type of thing with models over amping storms, so this could be the case and end up being a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I am not an MJO expert. The correlation is lower then in other phases and months yes, but lower is not non existent. I was just playing devils advocate more then anything else. I do not know how much influence the MJO will have nor do I know how amplified the wave will be into phases 4-6. That is all TBD. But the assumption that we would just flip right out of a torch is unfounded optimism also. I have my doubts we ever actually go into such a pattern. But I never want to give up the cold and go into a crap pattern. A better bet IMO would be to simply adjust the location of the pattern drivers slightly to get a more favorable precip pattern without totally braking things down. People act like the only way to get adjustments is with a total pattern break down and reboot. That isnt true. We are about to (probably) miss a pretty major snowstorm by only 100 miles. That is minor in the grand scheme of things. Adjust the trough axis over the east west just a few degrees, or have a more shallow trough that places high pressure to our north instead of over and south of us, and suddenly we love the pattern. Those adjustments do not require a total breakdown and torch. That was my main point. As for the MJO, sometimes I wonder if one big peice of our snowfall is simply getting lucky to time up a favorable MJO (or other pattern driver) with our peak snowfall climo from Jan 15-Feb 15. It seems in years where we are fighting a negative factor timing up with that window we struggle, not shockingly. I'm certainly no expert either with MJO, or much else in weather forecasting for that matter. I didn't mean to imply you were on the "root for a torch" train, only that I have seen that stated from many frustrated folks from various regions, and like you I agree that I'd rather keep the cold than go into a warm stretch and "hope" it gets cold again. Your point about the current near miss is perfect, replay this setup 10 times with slightly perturbed initial settings, and I bet at least 3 of them have a nice storm for I-95 up and down the coast and that would completely change most peoples view on the current cold stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro is close to a north american torch by d15. Wipes the continent pretty clean of below normal air by the end of the run and the Pac jet takes over. Being completely honest...I kinda hope it's right. I doubt it's some permanent thing but a break from cold/dry by the time the next 10 days rolls by sounds kinda nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: euro looks like its about to give us a nice event day 10 Huh? 850s are in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Huh? 850s are in upstate NY. must of been yesterdays run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at the prospects beyond the next 7-10 days... Teleconnections aren't helping +NAO (still, ugh, can't by a negative NAO these days) and the PNA becoming more neutral/negative with the PAC coast ridge breaking down somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 i will say one thing tonight...the canadien model sure loves giving us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I was all excited for this weekends cold progged on the GEM, then I checked the model output for last night and saw temps near zero across central MD. It's saying close to -5F tonight in Moco. How the **** does a model even operate with thermo this bad? That's like a 10-15 degree cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All eyes turn to Monday's rain and near 50 degree temps. We got this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is close to a north american torch by d15. Wipes the continent pretty clean of below normal air by the end of the run and the Pac jet takes over. Being completely honest...I kinda hope it's right. I doubt it's some permanent thing but a break from cold/dry by the time the next 10 days rolls by sounds kinda nice. Hopefully wrong, at least on the whole continent part. I know you know this but if all of Canada gets scoured of cold air that is probably at least a 2 week period of peak climo wasted. It would take at least a week after a favorable pattern returns to get the source region straightened out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Worst front-loaded winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 this winter is over...after this...our snow chances decrease big time. By mid January, we have a blowtorch will will likely last 2-3 weeks...by the time we get back to snow chances...we are at Mid February and the window is closing fast and Ian starts tweeting about sun angle... Put a fork in it...we blew a golden chance. Winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Code yellow for ice with a torch looming. At least my winter outlook is on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: All eyes turn to Monday's rain and near 50 degree temps. We got this Interestingly...the CMC went sleet to ice and the gfs went 33 and rain...general trend is for a colder outcome. Crappy snow setup with the low to the north (never seen that before) but a sleet to ice event works fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly...the CMC went sleet to ice and the gfs went 33 and rain...general trend is for a colder outcome. Crappy snow setup with the low to the north (never seen that before) but a sleet to ice event works fine. Hopefully we can get some snow on the front side if the cold can hold in a bit longer. Yesterday the low was up through the Midwest. Today it' under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'd take my chances with that vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Hopefully we can get some snow on the front side if the cold can hold in a bit longer. Yesterday the low was up through the Midwest. Today it' under us. There has been a seasonal trend to flatten/suppress shortwaves that look amped in the longer ranges. This one seems to be following along with that. The part that sucks is our cold is on the way out and there's a stupid northern stream low running the northern tier lock step with the southern shortwave. Cuts off our chances of getting reinforcing cold so we'll be stuck with antecedent air from how it looks now. 3-4 days ago it looked REALLY warm during and the day after the "rain". That has morphed quite a bit now. I'd be good with ice to solidify my 2" snowpack from tonight's event. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Guidance is really locking in on a more active precip pattern loaded with gradients. It showed up way out there in time and hasn't been budging much. If there is ANY month you want to take your chances in a progressive gradient pattern it's going to be Jan. Seems unlikely that every possible chance will be 100% rain. Mixed/ice or even a lucky clean snow could be on tap over the next 12 days or so. Then if you believe uber long range guidance...a jan thaw is on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly...the CMC went sleet to ice and the gfs went 33 and rain...general trend is for a colder outcome. Crappy snow setup with the low to the north (never seen that before) but a sleet to ice event works fine. We could pray for another Feb 2015 type miracle, but more then likely its an ice setup. But we have several waves coming SW to NE at us with cold to our north...something could work out in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: this winter is over...after this...our snow chances decrease big time. By mid January, we have a blowtorch will will likely last 2-3 weeks...by the time we get back to snow chances...we are at Mid February and the window is closing fast and Ian starts tweeting about sun angle... Put a fork in it...we blew a golden chance. Winter is over I don't disagree with the possibility of that being exactly how it happens but the Pac hasn't bullied Canada this entire winter. If it does, is it transient or a flip to a new regime? Even if Canada gets scoured, reloaded the EPO ridge can flip temps on a dime up there. Canada is a cold factory when the conditions are right. It's not the same as our area where we need to watch cold move in from a distance. Global ens agree right now that things turn warm for NA during the d12-15 period. I'd wait until that happens and see if it looks like it's going to hold for a while before expecting a 2-3 shutout period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 @Bob Chill What are you thoughts on the Euro with next Mondays event? I a trying to interpret the run on the weather us maps and it looks like it tracks the 500 south of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: @Bob Chill What are you thoughts on the Euro with next Mondays event? I a trying to interpret the run on the weather us maps and it looks like it tracks the 500 south of us? Verbatim....it's a huge ice storm...lol. Temps just at or below freezing but the ground is going to be a frozen rock. It's a serious ice storm man. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Heh, .70 falls with temps below freezing from the fall line west. Looks like a little snow to start NW, then sleet, and then ice. It would be a major event. Especially if surface temps are just 2-3 degrees colder. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Heh, .70 falls with temps below freezing from the fall line west. Looks like a little snow to start NW, then sleet, and then ice. It would be a major event. Especially if surface temps are just 2-3 degrees colder. Holy crap. Bob, what about BWI area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Considering we will be back in the icebox this weekend, ground temps should be absolutely frigid on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ltrain said: Bob, what about BWI area? It's a uniform 31-32 pretty much everywhere once you get away from the bay. Insitu CAD kind of deal. Think about how cold the ground is going to be too. 850's are only +1 or so but I'm sure there's mid level warmth so it's not really that close to snow. I'll check the levels later but as is it would be light snow just NW of the cities to start, then sleet, then ice for almost the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, .70 falls with temps below freezing from the fall line west. Looks like a little snow to start NW, then sleet, and then ice. It would be a major event. Especially if surface temps are just 2-3 degrees colder. Holy crap. Yeah. I have just been playing around with the VA state maps looking at surface temps and it keeps NOVA below freezing at the surface throughout from what I can tell. Would be a pretty big mess with the already frozen tundra we all have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's a uniform 31-32 pretty much everywhere once you get away from the bay. Insitu CAD kind of deal. Think about how cold the ground is going to be too. 850's are only +1 or so but I'm sure there's mid level warmth so it's not really that close to snow. I'll check the levels later but as is it would be light snow just NW of the cities to start, then sleet, then ice for almost the whole event. No high to the North though as is usually found in our higher end ice events, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's a uniform 31-32 pretty much everywhere once you get away from the bay. Insitu CAD kind of deal. Think about how cold the ground is going to be too. 850's are only +1 or so but I'm sure there's mid level warmth so it's not really that close to snow. I'll check the levels later but as is it would be light snow just NW of the cities to start, then sleet, then ice for almost the whole event. Thanks, I was hoping for no ice because my neighborhood loses power so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: No high to the North though as is usually found in our higher end ice events, right? Yes, but think about this...literally 24 hours before onset it's going to be in the single digits. Accretion on the ground would be impressive even if temps hover right at freezing. What we need to work on is separating the northern and southern lows and keeping the mid levels....would be a big snowstorm... Very unlikely but it's close enough to consider the option. If the euro verified it would be the biggest ice storm we've seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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