New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

6z NAM, what is that piece that appears as a precip band over Florida. It seems like this part could really overperform 

[showmethesnow]

Really don't like dealing with the NAM beyond 48 hours if not 24 but for those interested. We have seen a marked improvement across the board in regards to the Thur storm. We have seen a somewhat decent shifting of the whole low pressure westward (development and track). We have also seen a decent shift westward of the precip through the Carolinas as well. Not going to break down precip types but suffice it to say snowfall maps show 2' at Charleston with roughly foot totals from SE Georgia all the way up to east/central NC and these totals extend fairly far inland. Storm still exits stage right OTS just south of OBX with little to no impact for coastal regions of MD though.

We have also seen good improvements at 500mb as well. We are seeing a closed upper level low forming farther west with the front side of the trough being more conducive for pulling that feature farther northward. Overall look at 500 mb in my mind doesn't support the structure and evolution of the surface low that we do see. Though we may see a duel low structure initially we see the closed upper level low stack above the western low fairly early in the process and that would probably argue for a stronger deeper more explosive western low with the eastern portion of the duel low structure weakening and eventually dissipating. But instead we see a duel low structure with both lows at roughly equivalent strength where the eastern low eventually wins the battle. This evolution just does not make sense, at least in my mind. 

Overall, ignoring the surface and going by 500's alone, the NAM is probably suggestive that the Eastern Shore would be in play. If not even further west. Would like to see a better negative tilt from the southern portion of the trough in the deep south though. That would tuck the low structure close to the coast and give it a more westward track up the coast. But we are talking the NAM way beyond it's comfort zone so all of this needs to be taken in perspective.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Really don't like dealing with the NAM beyond 48 hours if not 24 but for those interested. We have seen a marked improvement across the board in regards to the Thur storm. We have seen a somewhat decent shifting of the whole low pressure westward (development and track). We have also seen a decent shift westward of the precip through the Carolinas as well. Not going to break down precip types but suffice it to say snowfall maps show 2' at Charleston with roughly foot totals from SE Georgia all the way up to east/central NC and these totals extend fairly far inland. Storm still exits stage right OTS just south of OBX with little to no impact for coastal regions of MD though.

We have also seen good improvements at 500mb as well. We are seeing a closed upper level low forming farther west with the front side of the trough being more conducive for pulling that feature farther northward. Overall look at 500 mb in my mind doesn't support the structure and evolution of the surface low that we do see. Though we may see a duel low structure initially we see the closed upper level low stack above the western low fairly early in the process and that would probably argue for a stronger deeper more explosive western low with the eastern portion of the duel low structure weakening and eventually dissipating. But instead we see a duel low structure with both lows at roughly equivalent strength where the eastern low eventually wins the battle. This evolution just does not make sense, at least in my mind. 

Overall, ignoring the surface and going by 500's alone, the NAM is probably suggestive that the Eastern Shore would be in play. If not even further west. Would like to see a better negative tilt from the southern portion of the trough in the deep south though. That would tuck the low structure close to the coast and give it a more westward track up the coast. But we are talking the NAM way beyond it's comfort zone so all of this needs to be taken in perspective.

Good writeup! We dont need a direct hitting blizzard.....beggars cant be choosers. But I still think a moderate event for the I95 metro areas is very much in play. I know most models verbatim suggest Eastern shore but people need to remember this is only guidance and there is enough mesocale stuff going on west of the main show to keep areas west of there in play.

 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Good writeup! We dont need a direct hitting blizzard.....beggars cant be choosers. But I still think a moderate event for the I95 metro areas is very much in play. I know most models verbatim suggest Eastern shore but people need to remember this is only guidance and there is enough mesocale stuff going on west of the main show to keep areas west of there in play.

 

***I know you are already aware of this so this is for the most part for the novices in our group.***

I know many are focusing on the small westward shifts they are seeing on the surface but this is for the most part noise. Where they really need to be focusing is the 500's and the small positive incremental steps we have been seeing there over the last couple of days. We are getting very close to the tipping point, where with just a couple more small improvements, we see in one run everything probably shift significantly westward. Whether it would be enough for the DC/Balt corridor, if it does even happen, is yet to be decided.

This whole setup is a no-win for our region without one key thing happening. We need to see an earlier developing closed low at 500's. No closed low and we are SOL short of some drastic changes with the trough configuration. At this point we are seeing the closed low form but it is happening far to late OTS which is of no benefit to our region. But what we are seeing over the last few runs is that for the most part the models are forming this sooner and sooner. What we need to see with that is that it forms, at the very latest, just as it is hitting the ocean. Anything later and the DC/Balt corridor is for the most part out of the show. Now another key thing is that we need to see this closed low coming in stronger then currently depicted. That is why I have been focusing on the energy interaction and arguing that we need to see a clean initial phase. And again the models have been slowly strengthening that feature as well for the most part. Now the quicker and farther west this closed low forms and the stronger that feature is the farther of a west track we see with our coastal (This is contingent on the timing with the different features remaining roughly the same).

Now many are paying attention to the axis tilt of the southern portion of the trough in the deep south. Without a closed low embedded within it I think that is a nonstarter. There will be very limited play in regards to westward shifts with that feature alone. But if in fact you put a closed low into it the trough will automatically respond and move towards a negative tilt and the stronger the low the quicker we see the trough go negative.

All in all, what we are looking for is a stronger more westerly developing closed low which has the better capability of capturing the coastal and drawing it westward. We see that and everything thing else should fall into place.

[showmethesnow]

Now I haven't test driven the 3K NAM that much yet but from what I understand from other knowledgeable people is that it is a somewhat significant upgrade. Add in the fact that it is of a higher resolution then the 12K and what it has to show may or may not be of some significance. Comparing both models at 60 hrs and we see a fairly significant shift of the initial low pressure on the 3K south and west compared to the 12K. If correct this would have a somewhat significant impact on the track of the low northward. Besides the obvious initial shift westward this slower progression northward also would allow more time and better positioning for a possible capture of the coastal low by a closed upper low swinging off the coast. As depicted the capture would probably occur farther south and west then currently depicted on the 12 K. In simpler terms it is what we want to see as this would draw the track westward. Now again, this is the NAM suite at range no less so take with extreme caution.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Interesting! Sounds like this storm is putting the models to the test (with all of its moving parts and rather complex components).  

 

On a banter-ish note: Happy New Year, y'all.  

Happy New Year to you as well.

In regards to a possible impact to our region, yes they are. Don't think this is yet close to being decided. That being said, I still think a possible impact to our region is of low odds. Until I see a strong closed upper level low moving off the SE coast on the models that is where those odds will stay.

[Wonderdog]

Hour 72 on the 6z GFS takes another baby step west with precip field and positioning compared to 0z run. Some would say that it is right where we want it three days out what with the GFS bias (if true) of being too south and east. eastern NC, VA, DE, and maybe up to Atlantic City now being grazed on this run. Can't stop tracking this now, it's too close. 500's more west than 0z also.

 

[Wonderdog]

Looks as if the 500 level tries to close off east of Hatteras but is just a little late but it does sooner than at 0z.

[mappy]

Hey @showmethesnow go ahead and start a thread for Thursday deal. It’s not LR anymore and there’s still a few following it. 

Thanks!

[eurojosh]

Honestly,  its that UL vort that kicks the storm out to sea that's the unavoidable problem. Unless that slows or weakens, we're out of luck - and if it does, you also miss the explosive development that occurs right after these frames.

[showmethesnow]

Have a new thread devoted to our Jan 4th coastal.

 

[knglover]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Because once in a while we all need a little hope:

Snowstorms (and rebellions) are built on hope...Happy New Year All.  I cant express how much I thoroughly enjoy reading every word you guys type.  I consider myself a fairly intelligent guy but a vast majority of you put me to shame.  Thanks and Cheers!

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, Amped said:

One more reminder the record for 24hrs deepening off the east coast is  60mb from 4 Jan 1989 

EURO SHOWS this storm going from 999mb to 941mb in 24hrs!!!!!!!!!!     It's going to be close

Oh I remember that one!! I was in 8th grade 1989.  PHL was to get 3-6” others just SE were to get 5-10”.  Result PHL flurries then sun.  Just SE 1-3” then sun.  Wildwood NJ 23” 5 foot drifts on the boardwalk and winds past 45. 

[SnowGoose69]

26 minutes ago, knglover said:

Snowstorms (and rebellions) are built on hope...Happy New Year All.  I cant express how much I thoroughly enjoy reading every word you guys type.  I consider myself a fairly intelligent guy but a vast majority of you put me to shame.  Thanks and Cheers!

 

The CRAS is the reverse NAVGEM.  It has a crazy amped bias.  Typically we would want to see that low over CHO if we were in business at this time frame

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is going to be a record in cold centered 500mb anomalies with surrounding pattern (no negative NAO, no canadian blocking etc)

[Prestige Worldwide]

Maybe a cold winter for the duration

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

lol this is what's going on. What's normally at 500mb is somewhere else. Have you ever seen anything like it? 

[Bob Chill]

Gfs flatter/colder/weaker with the next Monday deal and then sets up a more gradient look beyond. Cmc is warmer/amped on Monday but sets up a gradient look later. Euro was a really good gradient look. Even though all 3 ops get there different ways, they all have us on the winning side of the temp battle. Hopefully this entire idea gains traction as we move forward. 

Unsurprisingly, the "relaxation" keeps getting muted/shortened ad we move forward in time. I'm getting more interested every day 

[Ji]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs flatter/colder/weaker with the next Monday deal and then sets up a more gradient look beyond. Cmc is warmer/amped on Monday but sets up a gradient look later. Euro was a really good gradient look. Even though all 3 ops get there different ways, they all have us on the winning side of the temp battle. Hopefully this entire idea gains traction as we move forward. 

Unsurprisingly, the "relaxation" keeps getting muted/shortened ad we move forward in time. I'm getting more interested every day 

its amazing(gfs) how the precip just keeps falling apart as it approaches DC

[showmethesnow]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs flatter/colder/weaker with the next Monday deal and then sets up a more gradient look beyond. Cmc is warmer/amped on Monday but sets up a gradient look later. Euro was a really good gradient look. Even though all 3 ops get there different ways, they all have us on the winning side of the temp battle. Hopefully this entire idea gains traction as we move forward. 

Unsurprisingly, the "relaxation" keeps getting muted/shortened ad we move forward in time. I'm getting more interested every day 

I am glad you are keeping track. I have been so focused on this possible Thursday storm that I have neglected the long range for the most part. Would be nice to wake up after we fail on Thursday to be surprised to see another storm incoming.  

[Ji]

my "we are too north...but we are too south...but we are too east....etc" has never been truer than this December

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

its amazing(gfs) how the precip just keeps falling apart as it approaches DC

Heh, it's prob the storm after the storm. Monday has some problems with the ns shortwave passing north. Gfs was sheared/flat so it was colder but crappy dynamics so light precip. Cmc was amped and the wrong kind of wet. 

If we can get the northern wave to clear with trailing energy to the south it would get interesting. We just need to end these massive fronts pushing the gradient boundary to cuba or Belize or wherever. Lol. There's still plenty of precip going on with the thermal gradient but it's so far south and over the gom or caribbean that it seems nonexistent. We need a warm deep south and cold MA. 

[Ji]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, it's prob the storm after the storm. Monday has some problems with the ns shortwave passing north. Gfs was sheared/flat so it was colder but crappy dynamics so light precip. Cmc was amped and the wrong kind of wet. 

If we can get the northern wave to clear with trailing energy to the south it would get interesting. We just need to end these massive fronts pushing the gradient boundary to cuba or Belize or wherever. Lol. There's still plenty of precip going on with the thermal gradient but it's so far south and over the gom or caribbean that it seems nonexistent. We need a warm deep south and cold MA. 

the short range and long range OPS euro look like a disaster. Other than that it was a good run

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is interesting and bold

[Maestrobjwa]

Just poking my head in here...How are the temperatures looking in the med/long range? (I haven't been following this thread the last few days). Still bone-chilling I hope! 

[evaporativecooler]

just like anything in life It's always a good idea to focus on the positives instead of dwelling on non-existent snow. This year is exceptionally great for ice and if the -epo/+pna pattern continues into late Jan and February like it very well may, we could see the best skating conditions of the past two decades at least. Ice thicknesses could very easily surpass 2013/2014 and 2014/15 since both of those years had above average Decembers that wasted a lot of the late season cold on  column preconditioning

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just poking my head in here...How are the temperatures looking in the med/long range? (I haven't been following this thread the last few days). Still bone-chilling I hope! 

Ens mean temps show below normal for 15 straight days but it probably won't play out like that. Looks more like a few warmish days mixed in with continued cold Canadien highs dropping in. Just need to hope that the warmish days arent directly tied to our precip chances. Right now that seems favored but far from a lock 

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ens mean temps show below normal for 15 straight days but it probably won't play out like that. Looks more like a few warmish days mixed in with continued cold Canadien highs dropping in. Just need to hope that the warmish days arent directly tied to our precip chances. Right now that seems favored but far from a lock 

Hope not...but in La Niña winters around here...that pattern has happened way too many times, smh (although with cold this intense, do you think our ice risk goes up?)

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hope not...but in La Niña winters around here...that pattern has happened way too many times, smh (although with cold this intense, do you think our ice risk goes up?)

Yes, especially with a progressve pattern and a predominant -epo ridge. 93-94 was loaded with ice in these parts. It's also surprising that 13/14 and 14/15 didn't have more ice honeslty. Weather it neat like that. Similar longwave patterns the balance of winter but very different outcomes. 

It does look like this uber cold stuff is on the way out next week but as long as the epo ridge keeps popping you can't write off arctic air in the conus. 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, especially with a progressve pattern and a predominant -epo ridge. 93-94 was loaded with ice in these parts. It's also surprising that 13/14 and 14/15 didn't have more ice honeslty. Weather it neat like that. Similar longwave patterns the balance of winter but very different outcomes. 

It does look like this uber cold stuff is on the way out next week but as long as the epo ridge keeps popping you can't write off arctic air in the conus. 

Read over at the Philly. wx site the weeklies were better than last run and had the -epo most of the way.