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New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It is noticeably west. The .1" is over BWI.

The track is the same. Precip was a hair west. But it was noise. Virtually identical run. Our only hope is that the western low in the double barrel scenario ends up being THE dominant low and not the one way OTS.  If the models are all messing that up...it's a big ask at this point. I'm still out. But wanting to see something to make me change my mind. Haven't yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This has to be one of the funniest runs I've seen in a long time. Delmarva hit good and a SNE whiff. I can hear the screams of agony coming from the north. 

Yes it is

Dr No has a sense of humor who would have known, was following the discussion up north and thought it was game over for me lol but this looks good

 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Dude I'm dying over here :lol: 

Would much rather take a 2.5 hour trip than go all the way to ORH. 

I'm going to stay with my mom thurs night if the euro (or any guidance) shows a good hit. I need to visit soon anyways and Cambridge is on 90 mins away. Perfect reason. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta hand it to you guys. The forest remains undiscovered. 

I'm more interested in the gfs for next Monday. I'll start the thread after we finish helping SNE shovel their blizzard. 

 

Yes I agree.im definitely interested in 7 - 8 days from now. Moisture coming at us from the southwest ( hopefully ) and left over arctic air around. I don' care if we mix as long as it's not 60 degrees.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The track is the same. Precip was a hair west. But it was noise. Virtually identical run. Our only hope is that the western low in the double barrel scenario ends up being THE dominant low and not the one way OTS.  If the models are all messing that up...it's a big ask at this point. I'm still out. But wanting to see something to make me change my mind. Haven't yet. 

At this point, the why's don't matter to me. I'm just along for the ride. We're 78+ hours out. Lots can happen.

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I haven't been following too close with how this storm evolves north of us so I might be totally off but I noticed something. The shield is crazy wide at our latitude due to the low structure. But the piece that fizzles north of Philly seems like it has something to do with the northern stream low sliding through the NE. Since the big low center is well east of the benchmark it appears that the northern stream low screws with the dynamics on the west side of the big storm. We've had that happen here. Good precip shield just fizzles as it approaches becuase of the "no man's land" between 2 slp's. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't been following too close with how this storm evolves north of us so I might be totally off but I noticed something. The shield is crazy wide at our latitude due to the low structure. But the piece that fizzles north of Philly seems like it has something to do with the northern stream low sliding through the NE. Since the big low center is well east of the benchmark it appears that the northern stream low screws with the dynamics on the west side of the big storm. We've had that happen here. Good precip shield just fizzles as it approaches becuase of the "no man's land" between 2 slp's. 

This seems very plausible. Plus ya gotta love the idea of a SNE screw job...

I actually dont really care much at all about what happens up north tbh, lol.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Mitch, we get a half inch of pure rain in between arctic air masses so that's new. A 1 day pattern change that rains on us  Yay!

The ground will be frozen when it falls and refreeze before it evaporates. What a winter. And you watch. Sby is going to end with a record snowfall year. Mark my words. 

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16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Another arctic air mass that will most likely be dry at D9. What's new?

ecmwf_t2m_anom_conus2_41.thumb.png.b3b230300250979487c6976c41e00e99.png

No it wouldn't. There is a fundamental difference with that and what we've been stuck in. Look at the upper levels. Much more west-east flow. Elongated lIke that panel is very good. There will be a strong thermal gradient and plenty of opportunity for overrunning or synoptic precip. The gulf is open and so is the stj with the upper level pattern. 

I'm not saying it's right of course but the ensembles have been showing a lot of this kind of stuff. I believe we're heading into a pattern that will have much more opportunity for precip in the deep south, Ohio valley, and east coast. Ptype is tricky. Very mixed signals with how boundaries set up and what side we fall on 

Eta: just to be clear...when I say more opportunities I don't mean a soaking wet pattern. Just one that will provide much better chances than this super cold and extra dry thing we're stuck in now. 

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