Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 According to Kuchera, OC gets 14". Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Good night crazy cats. Love all the hard work put in here. Still some time to reel this in, but tomorrow is about it. If not, it’s only weather...more to come...always. Plenty of @Jebman walks in our future. It will happen. Believe...said the dude on the Polar Express. Peace out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This has to be one of the funniest runs I've seen in a long time. Delmarva hit good and a SNE whiff. I can hear the screams of agony coming from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: According to Kuchera, OC gets 14". Wow. How about Bwi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: According to Kuchera, OC gets 14". Wow. Ultimate NE screwjob. Manages to jackpot Ocean City and screws New England/Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: This has to be one of the funniest runs I've seen in a long time. Delmarva hit good and a SNE whiff. I can hear the screams of agony coming from the north. See, being the bullseye at 4+ days has its risks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It is noticeably west. The .1" is over BWI. The track is the same. Precip was a hair west. But it was noise. Virtually identical run. Our only hope is that the western low in the double barrel scenario ends up being THE dominant low and not the one way OTS. If the models are all messing that up...it's a big ask at this point. I'm still out. But wanting to see something to make me change my mind. Haven't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 A few more runs like this and my road trip destination will be a done deal.(even though the Euro has 5-6" imby, I dont buy it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Thanks for the maps Cobalt and CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year! Enough to stay interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This has to be one of the funniest runs I've seen in a long time. Delmarva hit good and a SNE whiff. I can hear the screams of agony coming from the north. Yes it is Dr No has a sense of humor who would have known, was following the discussion up north and thought it was game over for me lol but this looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Dude I'm dying over here Would much rather take a 2.5 hour trip than go all the way to ORH. I'm going to stay with my mom thurs night if the euro (or any guidance) shows a good hit. I need to visit soon anyways and Cambridge is on 90 mins away. Perfect reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Few more runs like this and we'll be having a subforum get together in Ocean City Meh. Rehoboth is the place to go. See ya at Dogfish Head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I gotta hand it to you guys. The forest remains undiscovered. I'm more interested in the gfs for next Monday. I'll start the thread after we finish helping SNE shovel their blizzard. Yes I agree.im definitely interested in 7 - 8 days from now. Moisture coming at us from the southwest ( hopefully ) and left over arctic air around. I don' care if we mix as long as it's not 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Philly gets more snow than CAPE cod LOL, imagine DT if the GFS showed that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The track is the same. Precip was a hair west. But it was noise. Virtually identical run. Our only hope is that the western low in the double barrel scenario ends up being THE dominant low and not the one way OTS. If the models are all messing that up...it's a big ask at this point. I'm still out. But wanting to see something to make me change my mind. Haven't yet. At this point, the why's don't matter to me. I'm just along for the ride. We're 78+ hours out. Lots can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 One more reminder the record for 24hrs deepening off the east coast is 60mb from 4 Jan 1989 EURO SHOWS this storm going from 999mb to 941mb in 24hrs!!!!!!!!!! It's going to be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: One more reminder the record for 24hrs deepening off the east coast is 60mb from 4 Jan 1989 EURO SHOWS this storm going from 999mb to 941mb in 24hrs!!!!!!!!!! It's going to be close Absolutely insane. Like a winter hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I haven't been following too close with how this storm evolves north of us so I might be totally off but I noticed something. The shield is crazy wide at our latitude due to the low structure. But the piece that fizzles north of Philly seems like it has something to do with the northern stream low sliding through the NE. Since the big low center is well east of the benchmark it appears that the northern stream low screws with the dynamics on the west side of the big storm. We've had that happen here. Good precip shield just fizzles as it approaches becuase of the "no man's land" between 2 slp's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Pattern change? Really Euro? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't been following too close with how this storm evolves north of us so I might be totally off but I noticed something. The shield is crazy wide at our latitude due to the low structure. But the piece that fizzles north of Philly seems like it has something to do with the northern stream low sliding through the NE. Since the big low center is well east of the benchmark it appears that the northern stream low screws with the dynamics on the west side of the big storm. We've had that happen here. Good precip shield just fizzles as it approaches becuase of the "no man's land" between 2 slp's. This seems very plausible. Plus ya gotta love the idea of a SNE screw job... I actually dont really care much at all about what happens up north tbh, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Mitch, we get a half inch of pure rain in between arctic air masses so that's new. A 1 day pattern change that rains on us Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Another arctic air mass that will most likely be dry at D9. What's new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Mitch, we get a half inch of pure rain in between arctic air masses so that's new. A 1 day pattern change that rains on us Yay! The ground will be frozen when it falls and refreeze before it evaporates. What a winter. And you watch. Sby is going to end with a record snowfall year. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Another arctic air mass that will most likely be dry at D9. What's new? 5H anomaly map guarantees days more of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I'm not mad at this look. Good precip is breaking out in OK/MO along the boundary. I've been noticing a lot of gradient soltuions on the ens starting in a week to 10 days. Mixed results with what side we end up on. I know exactly what side we'd end up on with this. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Another arctic air mass that will most likely be dry at D9. What's new? No it wouldn't. There is a fundamental difference with that and what we've been stuck in. Look at the upper levels. Much more west-east flow. Elongated lIke that panel is very good. There will be a strong thermal gradient and plenty of opportunity for overrunning or synoptic precip. The gulf is open and so is the stj with the upper level pattern. I'm not saying it's right of course but the ensembles have been showing a lot of this kind of stuff. I believe we're heading into a pattern that will have much more opportunity for precip in the deep south, Ohio valley, and east coast. Ptype is tricky. Very mixed signals with how boundaries set up and what side we fall on Eta: just to be clear...when I say more opportunities I don't mean a soaking wet pattern. Just one that will provide much better chances than this super cold and extra dry thing we're stuck in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Tomorrow we bring this storm home, starting with a good trend on the 6z suite. Can’t wait to track with y’all in 2018! Happy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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