Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: I could at least live with CMC. Verbatim, NYC and Boston do well but barely hit double digits, it appears. Either way, we still have a shot. Hopefully, NAM is on to something. GFS could be right but I tend to doubt it. I don't think any models have it figured out yet. If they did, they wouldn't keep jumping around and the solutions wouldn't keep changing. GFS tends to keep systems East, so I'll file this run as having that bias. Only time I remember it winning in this type of East or West situation was the Late March 2016 storm where it showed the storm only impacting SE New England. It's bias was known during the Christmas Day storm for New England, where it continually looked very East and suppressed within 96 hours of the event, and then eventually caved towards the Euro. Not saying the storm caves towards the Euro, but if the Euro stays like it was during 12z or goes West, the GFS is basically on it's own. The wave comes onshore tomorrow afternoon, and so models can still shift around. No consistency at this range, and so it could easily shift either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I gotta hand it to you guys. The forest remains undiscovered. I'm more interested in the gfs for next Monday. I'll start the thread after we finish helping SNE shovel their blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I gotta hand it to you guys. The forest remains undiscovered. I'm more interested in the gfs for next Monday. I'll start the thread after we finish helping SNE shovel their blizzard. Yes... Looks nice for some cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Can't believe we have struck out on everything since December 8. 23 straight days of fail and counting Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Can't believe we have struck out on everything since December 8. 23 straight days of fail and counting Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 23 days is hard to believe? After the Feb 2011 through Dec 2014 stretch I believe it. Heck, I expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes... Looks nice for some cold rain A lot if spread on how it evolves so keep it simple. Precip approaching with departing arctic air. It's our next chance for winter wx on our yards so there's that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 23 days is hard to believe? After the Feb 2011 through Dec 2014 stretch I believe it. Heck, I expect it. You mean dec 2013...give us a little credit. Plus we didn't have an arctic Pattern like we have now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Blizzard conditions might be a lot closer then SNE . If Euro is right Salisbury on east to OC would fit that criteria possibly ..a few inches of snow with wind gusts to 40 easy . I might see if Wxwatcher wants to chase Maybe. I'm pretty skeptical the elongated or double barrel low structure gets precip into MD. Seems to be gaining some support but its only a wobble away from missing. Might visit my mom in Cambridge if it looks real the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: You mean dec 2013...give us a little credit. Plus we didn't have an arctic Pattern like we have now It's not a precip friendly pattern though. We got fooled with the stj solutions showing up before xmas but that vaporized long ago. We need to get out of this pattern asap. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, Ji said: Can't believe we have struck out on everything since December 8. 23 straight days of fail and counting Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Happy new year? Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy new year everyone! Are you guys ready for the best Euro run of the year so far? In all seriousness (been waiting for that joke), this storm has been far fetched ever since the Euro stopped showing the 6" runs on Thursday 12z. I know that, you all know that. Tracking this storm has been a fun, but insanely frustrating experience. I'm getting close to moving on to the next event. With that said, it looks like our next event could be next Monday. Decent precip signal, but way too far out for any good analysis. I hope everyone and their families have a happy and healthy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Blizzard conditions might be a lot closer then SNE . If Euro is right Salisbury on east to OC would fit that criteria possibly ..a few inches of snow with wind gusts to 40 easy . I might see if Wxwatcher wants to chase I am still trying to determine if I should head west(Canaan) or east to Rehoboth this week. Figuring it out is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am still trying to determine if I should head west(Canaan) or east to Rehoboth this week. Figuring it out is fun. If you're willing to drive to Canaan then I would head to SNE honestly if it looks ripe. Either way, happy new year dude! We'll win a few this year in our yards. Patience is always part of this hobby in these parts. I hope Ji is still with us for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you're willing to drive to Canaan then I would head to SNE honestly if it looks ripe. Either way, happy new year dude! We'll win a few this year in our yards. Patience is always part of this hobby in these parts. I hope Ji is still with us for the next one. HNY to you Mr Chill. I am optimistic going forward, regardless of what happens this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 0z UKIE Total Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z UKIE Total Precip. I think this close enough to stay interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z UKIE Total Precip. NAVGEM, Euro, Ukie, and CMC have all “trended” west in the last 24 hrs and show flurries making it to the western shore of the bay with a 72hr lead...now watch the euro go way east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I never thought I would say this when my temp is 11 but we need a pattern change...yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: NAVGEM, Euro, Ukie, and CMC have all “trended” west in the last 24 hrs and show flurries making it to the western shore of the bay...now watch the euro go way east... I hope it goes to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: NAVGEM, Euro, Ukie, and CMC have all “trended” west in the last 24 hrs and show flurries making it to the western shore of the bay...now watch the euro go way east... I honestly have a feeling that it will trend East. It's the most bullish as of now, bringing flurries into DC. It can't be on it's own for that long, unless it's seeing something the other models aren't seeing, which is a super feat even for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I honestly have a feeling that it will trend East. It's the most bullish as of now, bringing flurries into DC. It can't be on it's own for that long, unless it's seeing something the other models aren't seeing, which is a super feat even for the Euro I hope if we can't cash in no one does except OBX...they never get much and deserve something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: I hope if we can't cash in no one does except OBX...they never get much and deserve something.. I am of the same mentality. If I can’t get snow, no one else can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The only thing that deserves a blizzard are the frickin fish. Been here long before us. They were tracking long before us. Don’t fight me on this. They were Euro’ing before we ever were GFS’ing! Please send help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I am of the same mentality. If I can’t get snow, no one else can. Here's to the Euro going to Bermuda...Godspeed wretched dual structured f*** phased monster...go attack the shipping lanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Scraff said: The only thing that deserves a blizzard are the frickin fish. Been here long before us. They were tracking long before us. Don’t fight me on this. They were Euro’ing before we ever were GFS’ing! Please send help... They honestly deserve it way more than us. They always get rain during our biggest Nor'easters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Here's to the Euro going to Bermuda...Godspeed wretched dual structured f*** phased monster...go attack the shipping lanes Let's let her go gently, with the Euro. Let's let Frankie in Nova Scotia get his fun with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Euro looks about the same at hr 72. Probably going to end up slightly East by within 10 miles That's not what we want, especially since it's probably still gonna hit NYC. All or nothing baby! Edit: It is basically West by 5-10 miles for DC. basically no change, which is better than East shift, but still doesn't answer a whole lot of questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Precip Shield moved a whole hop, skip, and a jump west. Off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow 941mb at 96hrs off NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro looks about the same at hr 72. Probably going to end up slightly East by within 10 miles That's not what we want, especially since it's probably still gonna hit NYC. All or nothing baby! Edit: It is basically West by 5-10 miles for DC. basically no change, which is better than East shift, but still doesn't answer a whole lot of questions. It is noticeably west. The .1" is over BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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