Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man if that west low takes over and keeps going we might pull it off. Too bad it's the NAM. Coastal SC blizzard? Myrtle Beach for the win. That crazy NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: Geez, you been lurking for the past 20 minutes just to say that? Lol I'm in South America..just getting a chance to catch up. Glad I'm not vested in this one. I'm holding my chips for the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm in South America..just getting a chance to catch up. Glad I'm not vested in this one. I'm holding my chips for the real deal. But there isn't a "next" in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmjokers Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's the third piece of energy diving in that drives everything due east after the phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: But there isn't a "next" in sight. Really, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: it's definitely going to hurt seeing that off the coast Thursday Indeed it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: But there isn't a "next" in sight. There is another.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm in South America..just getting a chance to catch up. Glad I'm not vested in this one. I'm holding my chips for the real deal. What real deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM I believe has the right idea with making the Western low over the main baroclinic zone the main low based on 250 jet and H5 look. Phase is a little sloppy, there are 4 shortwaves I count that are all trying to interact. They all do so eventually. This is far from being resolved with all the energy trying to interact. Not sure i buy a jump east with a closed h5 and occlusion happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man if that west low takes over and keeps going we might pull it off. Too bad it's the NAM. Coastal SC blizzard? Ice Storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Seems like there is another piece of energy kicking the storm east?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Would be interesting to see ice/snow in coastal SC and a rainer in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM I believe has the right idea with making the Western low over the main baroclinic zone the main low based on 250 jet and H5 look. Phase is a little sloppy, there are 4 shortwaves I count that are all trying to interact. They all do so eventually. This is far from being resolved with all the energy trying to interact. Not sure i buy a jump east with a closed h5 and occlusion happening. I think I saw it closed for one frame but then it opened again. Did I see that correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 What am I missing that is causing the storm to kick east? It looks like the trough is negative....shouldn't that be pulling it west? Just a newbie here so trying to make sure I understand things properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: What’s with the weak precip shield @ 84? You’d think with a SLP that deep there’d be more to it than that. Its the NAM at the end of its run, and out of its useful range. Wonky is what it does. It wont go down like that, I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think we've simply witnessed convective feedback at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM at 84hr 500mb vort has no chance of verifying lol This is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: I think we've simply witnessed convective feedback at its finest. Yeah, or its simply the NAM being the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmjokers Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's the piece of energy at 500 that comes down from Canada at hour 66. Was much weaker on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, psurulz said: What am I missing that is causing the storm to kick east? It looks like the trough is negative....shouldn't that be pulling it west? Just a newbie here so trying to make sure I understand things properly. NAM being the NAM. NAM at hr 84 is probably like GFS at hr 240. It's out of it's best range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah, or its simply the NAM being the NAM lol. I was trying so hard to be scientific about it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 What am I missing that is causing the storm to kick east? It looks like the trough is negative....shouldn't that be pulling it west? Just a newbie here so trying to make sure I understand things properly.Im actually befuddled too honestly. There are many signs suggesting this stays on a NNE heading if not due N. Unsure why the sudden jump almost due E. I dont think it is a terrible run at all. Thru 66 looks great. Not sure if convective feedback jumps it east or that last piece of energy trying to phase it. btw that final piece really sped up this run. Keep that up and it phases in cleaner and earlier. Another run, another solution. Takeaway.....expect the unexpected next 24-36 hours of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its the NAM at the end of its run, and out of its useful range. Wonky is what it does. It wont go down like that, I guarantee it. Does that mean the model couldn't handle the many changes taking place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Does that mean the model couldn't handle the many changes taking place? Could certainly be. I've heard that the Canadian and the RGEM are good in situations like this, but I haven't seen anything that backs that statement up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here's a good reason why the Nam is confused. You have record cold hitting the Atlantic with these types of anomalies. Fireworks baby, fireworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's the NAM, so taking with a grain of salt, but seemed like improvements early on and then things got weird, which is what you would expect from the NAM anyway. I'm still quite intrigued. I want something big for us or a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If that disturbance is legit and shows up on the GFS UKIE CMC Euro this could be a dangerous forecasting setup where we could see some sort of drastic shift inside 48 hours. A piece of energy such as that can easily go from acting as a kicker to a phaser easily with subtle changes in the timing of the other two pieces phasing, the timing of itself moving, and the entire trof axis changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The GFS won't catch it yet, but this is big hit storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If that disturbance is legit and shows up on the GFS UKIE CMC Euro this could be a dangerous forecasting setup where we could see some sort of drastic shift inside 48 hours. A piece of energy such as that can easily go from acting as a kicker to a phaser easily with subtle changes in the timing of the other two pieces phasing, the timing of itself moving, and the entire trof axis changing. That piece is not a kicker in the meteo sense of the word. That sw diving SE at the end of the run is racing into the extremely amplified trof and there is a jet reflection of this. Issue was it is about 3 hours slow yielding a sloppy phase which the NAM decides to handle rather absurdly at the surface. The natural physics wants to dive that into the rear of the trof.....like a ball going down a sliding board (the slope of the backside of the trof). It shouldnt be kicking anything E like that. Just my opinion. NAM on the right track, just too much happening aloft. Surface will catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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