Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NAVGEM went east Thru 78 it looks better then yeah it noses a hair E of last run. Better coastal front signal tho imo and as some stated better precip shield. Noise. I think we are at the mercy of the globals until hi res get into better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 minutes ago, Ji said: NAVGEM went east Thru 78 it looks better then yeah it noses a hair E of last run. Better coastal front signal tho imo and as some stated better precip shield. Noise. I think we are at the mercy of the globals until hi res get into better range. Yeah, gets precip into DC and then heads out SE for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said: It is a weather discussion forum isn't it? 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Totally . We all have a common passion that brings us together in forums like this. I personally think Cobalt has been a fine addition. 3 hours ago, nj2va said: Isn’t this a weather forum? Nothing else to track is there? I didn't take issue with him discussing it. It's more the bad analysis. He had brought up the "we might get the same north trend as 12/8-9" several times even though myself and others have explaned this is a very different synoptic setup then that. He has imo made statements that somewhat exaggerate the amount of actual improvement seen run to run. He said 11 get accumulating snow to D.C. That number only works if you include several trace amounts and it's not even clear the trace is from that storm. It's a stretch. There was a very slight improvement. But I will admit watching the Eagles offense look completely hopeless without Wentz again and the grim reality my team has no chance in the playoffs....after being the best team in the league all year, had me in a pretty pissy mood. I probably took it out on him. Sorry cobalt. I was short on temper. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Several members on the GEFS clustered well SW of the mean lp. Has that dual low look. Increase from 12z. Definite improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I didn't take issue with him discussing it. It's more the bad analysis. He had brought up the "we might get the same north trend as 12/8-9" several times even though myself and others have explaned this is a very different synoptic setup then that. He has imo made statements that somewhat exaggerate the amount of actual improvement seen run to run. He said 11 get accumulating snow to D.C. That number only works if you include several trace amounts and it's not even clear the trace is from that storm. It's a stretch. There was a very slight improvement. But I will admit watching the Eagles offense look completely hopeless without Wentz again and the grim reality my team has no chance in the playoffs....after being the best team in the league all year, had me in a pretty pissy mood. I probably took it out on him. Sorry cobalt. I was short on temper. My bad. No worries! I agree that I was adding a couple members where I wasn't sure if they got the trace of snow from the storm or not. At this point, there's not much to track, so I'm trying my best to squeeze as much out as I can from this storm. Hopefully, Ralph Wiggum is right and we can take this storm home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 No worries! I agree that I was adding a couple members where I wasn't sure if they got the trace of snow from the storm or not. At this point, there's not much to track, so I'm trying my best to squeeze as much out as I can from this storm. Hopefully, Ralph Wiggum is right and we can take this storm home. Im not 100% in just yet but I like what I see and really trying to analyze things using a blend of real meteorology and model clues via their known biases. We could be in a much worse spot 90 hours out in all honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Lol the NAVGEM Tries to give us snow then completely clips SE New England. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think @ this range we are obviously not going to see large scale changes. Models today are just too good today for that. However, there could certainly be enough energy rounding the base of the trough where there could be some decent precip forming along the coast of the East Coast like we are seeing on the EURO/CMC. The GFS tends to struggle with QPF placement. So once again while I think it is obviously game set match for the main low to shift W in any major way we could def see improvements with that moisture along the coast with amount & placement. This could put Eastern locations in the game, especially the coast. Anyone want to road trip to Nova Scotia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Lol the NAVGEM Tries to give us snow then completely clips SE New England. I love it. Ha. Well DCA getting big snow and BOS not isn’t too rare. The very rare one is DCA and BOS getting 6 inches or more of snow and NYC not. Only two storms have ever done that and they occurred in the same year. Late January 87 and 11/11/87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I bet we see one run where this thing does a Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It was nice reading all the great posts today. Everyone have a Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Bluewave, a poster in the New York Metro subforum, mentioned that surface low pressures usually form near the 1000-500mb height contour. I checked with quite a few past storms on Ray Martin's winter storms site and saw that it's true. In this storm's case the low pressure center forms quite far east of this line off Florida. Don't know why but maybe something to watch. I wsh this map was on TT. I went to the NWS model site to look at it. Edit: I should have mentioned it's the 520mb line. Edit: 540 not 520. I'm brain dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I like where we are with this storm. It might miss us for sure. But it would be more painful if we were in the bullseye right now and lost it as we move closer to game time. Maybe a record number awake for the Euro considering it’s NYE and a storm is still a possibility albeit a small one. Need to keep the trend going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I didn't take issue with him discussing it. It's more the bad analysis. He had brought up the "we might get the same north trend as 12/8-9" several times even though myself and others have explaned this is a very different synoptic setup then that. He has imo made statements that somewhat exaggerate the amount of actual improvement seen run to run. He said 11 get accumulating snow to D.C. That number only works if you include several trace amounts and it's not even clear the trace is from that storm. It's a stretch. There was a very slight improvement. But I will admit watching the Eagles offense look completely hopeless without Wentz again and the grim reality my team has no chance in the playoffs....after being the best team in the league all year, had me in a pretty pissy mood. I probably took it out on him. Sorry cobalt. I was short on temper. My bad. Lol...what’s your excuse for the other days the eagles haven’t been playing? BTW the game today didn’t really mean anything, so not worth gettin pissy over. The kid is pretty passionate about weather and extremely intelligent, so although it may not happen I cetainly enjoy his perspective. Instead of crapping on his thoughts, just appreciate his passion or ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I bet we see one run where this thing does a Sandy I hope so. In reality there has only been one run that really put us in the game and it was when the euro closed off h5 south of us. That was a flash in the pan unfortunately. I haven't seen a single op or ensemble run since that looked like we stand a chance west of the bay. The ingredients aren't there. 0z tonight needs some big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I hope so. In reality there has only been one run that really put us in the game and it was when the euro closed off h5 south of us. That was a flash in the pan unfortunately. I haven't seen a single op or ensemble run since that looked like we stand a chance west of the bay. The ingredients aren't there. 0z tonight needs some big changes. Actually, there were 2 runs with the second the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM will be interesting even if just for entertainment value. Plus it’s first in line so there’s that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Lol...what’s your excuse for the other days the eagles haven’t been playing? BTW the game today didn’t really mean anything, so not worth gettin pissy over. The kid is pretty passionate about weather and extremely intelligent, so although it may not happen I cetainly enjoy his perspective. Instead of crapping on his thoughts, just appreciate his passion or ignore. It matters when the starters were in and in conjunction with looking like crap last week too. I said I was sorry what more do you want? And not sure what other times your talking about. This was the first time I ever got pissy with Cobalt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: NAM will be interesting even if just for entertainment value. Plus it’s first in line so there’s that Sadly it's the first run, so if it's bad, that sets the expectation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Lol...what’s your excuse for the other days the eagles haven’t been playing? BTW the game today didn’t really mean anything, so not worth gettin pissy over. The kid is pretty passionate about weather and extremely intelligent, so although it may not happen I cetainly enjoy his perspective. Instead of crapping on his thoughts, just appreciate his passion or ignore. This was the first time he got into an argument with me. That's totally fine. First time I've seen him get pissy. Either way, this storm is a long shot, and he's being realistic saying that it's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The models are telling you guys everything that you need to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We need a Bengals ravens miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It matters when the starters were in and in conjunction with looking like crap last week too. I said I was sorry what more do you want? And not sure what other times your talking about. This was the first time I ever got pissy with Cobalt. I've been an Eagles fan my whole life. Hopefully they win one playoff game this year but it looks like it will have to be against probably New Orleans. Luckily New Orleans doesn't like to play Outdoors. And neither did Dallas or Philadelphia today. Keep hope alive PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 There was a poster in the NYC metro subforum quite a few years back with the screen name yanksfan (since changed). He was very enthusiastic when he first joined and at one point I counted up his posts and in a one day period 75-80% of the post were his. Needless to say he got a lot of negative feedback. He has calmed down since then. Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 There is no 'trend' west here.... come on now, it's not happening. I want it too but writing is on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 42 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Actually, there were 2 runs with the second the best. True. Only one that closed off h5 south of us. That's the only type of solution that makes it easy to work here. Progressive trough with no block and well east of where we want only works if it doesn't dig so much. I don't think there is a single event without a block, close off, or big negative tilt where a storm is born off the coast of FL and gives us snow. There might be one but I can't think of a single case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Potvinsux said: There is no 'trend' west here.... come on now, it's not happening. I want it too but writing is on the wall. Compared to 24, 48 hours, the models have certainly trended West with this system. Not West enough to say that we are getting snow for sure, but closer. If the 0z Suite comes in even 25+ miles West, we are very much in the game. If you were to ask me if DC was getting snow right now, I would say no, but that's due to 12z and a bit of 18z guidance. 0z runs could very much continue West trend, or trend East. All I know right now is that the GFS tends to suppress storms, and seems to get this right at least 25% of the time, with an example of it suppressing a storm being the Christmas day storm last week, where the Euro was much farther NW. Eventually, it caved NW within 96 hours of the event. We are very much in the game. Maybe not a whole lot, but we are on the line. 0z suite will be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Compared to 24, 48 hours, the models have certainly trended West with this system. Not West enough to say that we are getting snow for sure, but closer. If the 0z Suite comes in even 25+ miles West, we are very much in the game. If you were to ask me if DC was getting snow right now, I would say no, but that's due to 12z and a bit of 18z guidance. 0z runs could very much continue West trend, or trend East. All I know right now is that the GFS tends to suppress storms, and seems to get this right at least 25% of the time, with an example of it suppressing a storm being the Christmas day storm last week, where the Euro was much farther NW. Eventually, it caved NW within 96 hours of the event. We are very much in the game. Maybe not a whole lot, but we are on the line. 0z suite will be very interesting Even with me diving heavy into Imperial Stout world right now, I’m with you! If tomorrow looks like crap, we’ll move on. All good. We’ll get ours at some point...2023. LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREF's at max range (87 hrs) get I95 between .1-.25" contours with additional precip after it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: SREF's at max range (87 hrs) get I95 between .1-.25" contours with additional precip after it appears. They seem to be on the faster train which should mean the system gets less further west so I’m somewhat confused by their depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.