CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: My problem with the 18z GFS was we lost it trying to form that second low. The only good solution we’ve had in a few days was based on its existence, and I didn’t see a hint of it in the 18z GFS. NAM is interesting though. I dont much care what the 18z GFS shows. When the Euro takes a step back- even a small one- it will be close to fork sticking time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I consider the 18z run to be a plus, considering what some people think of the 18z run in general compared to the 0z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I dont much care what the 18z GFS shows. When the Euro takes a step back- even a small one- it will be close to fork sticking time. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I dont much care what the 18z GFS shows. When the Euro takes a step back- even a small one- it will be close to fork sticking time. I agree. GFS has a tendency to suppress storms at the medium-shorter range. It did that with the Christmas storm that hit New England. Sometimes it wins (Like March 19 2016), and sometimes it loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 My problem with the 18z GFS was we lost it trying to form that second low. The only good solution we’ve had in a few days was based on its existence, and I didn’t see a hint of it in the 18z GFS. NAM is interesting though. GFS being the GFS? There is obvious support for an OTS well offshore track. Wont argue that. But if you look at guidance that is supposed to have higher resolution for being globals (CMC/Euro) they have trended toward weakness or inverted trof near the baroclinic zone farther West. I wont discard the gfs but I think the dual low thing with a surface low or inverted trof nearer the coast has legs. Now if you believe the NAM (i know it is hard to do that) with its higher resolution, it really tries to key in on that convergence/baroclinicity nearer the coast. There are other dynamics the NAM is doing at h5 aiding this but I do believe it is sniffing something out. If it didnt have some support from other guidance I would say it is trash but this is one of those rare times it may be trying to lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z GGEM looks more Euro-ish. More west than 12z and it looks like it's getting on board with the double-barrel low. The western extent of the precip shield is west of DC. It's not much, but it's better than going the other way. ETA: Sorry, mis-read the map. Accumulations aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The GFS is not likely going to catch on for awhile. At this point we just don’t want to see any marked east push by the CMC UKIE or Euro tonight. Otherwise I anticipate the GFS will be a holdout until at least tomorrow night if not Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: 18z GGEM looks more Euro-ish. More west than 12z and it looks like it's getting on board with the double-barrel low. The western extent of the precip shield is west of DC. 0.2" qpf line close to Baltimore. It's not much, but it's better than going the other way. That's a great improvement. Don't expect huge shifts West, especially at this range, but trends West like we're seeing, are for sure good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That's a great improvement. Don't expect huge shifts West, especially at this range, but trends West like we're seeing, are for sure good. I just edited my post -- accumulations aren't out yet, so ignore the part about the 0.2" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, cae said: 18z GGEM looks more Euro-ish. More west than 12z and it looks like it's getting on board with the double-barrel low. The western extent of the precip shield is west of DC. 0.2" qpf line close to Baltimore. It's not much, but it's better than going the other way. Will be tough to watch our friends to the NE cash in on this but I guess any snow is good. They will eat at he buffet and we will eat out of the vending machine. I do like a Zagnut bar however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: Yeah, I just edited my post -- accumulations aren't out yet, so ignore the part about the 0.2" line. My guess is 0.2" line is probably near Annapolis, maybe Lexington Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Will be tough to watch our friends to the NE cash in on this but I guess any snow is good. They will eat at he buffet and we will eat out of the vending machine. I do like a Zagnut bar however. It's just climo. Folks in New England get the juicy storms that are too far East for us to cash in and the storms that are too far North for us. It's just how it works, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: My guess is 0.2" line is probably near Annapolis, maybe Lexington Park Doubtful, but we won't really know until 00z as the 18z run ends at 84 hours, when snow is still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: Doubtful, but we won't really know until 00z as the 18z run ends at 84 hours, when snow is still falling. Euro had 0.2" line just SE of Lexington park. 0z runs will tell tale. Crankywxguy said that 0z is the benchmark run, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 That's a great improvement. Don't expect huge shifts West, especially at this range, but trends West like we're seeing, are for sure good. Dont need a huge shift nor do we need the entire surface low to congeal right off the coast either. This look will work and with that said, CMC puts both of our region metro areas extremely close to a SECS with 84+ hours to go. Euro is really close too. We are closer than you think guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Anyone else upset that models bring warm temperatures on d9? If we're gonna whiff on snow I at least want to see a frozen bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Will be tough to watch our friends to the NE cash in on this but I guess any snow is good. They will eat at he buffet and we will eat out of the vending machine. I do like a Zagnut bar however. Come April and May they get to endure backdoor cold fronts while we're enjoying 70s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z GFS pretty much holding is not a bad or unexpected thing. If there are going to be any changes that matter at this juncture(good or bad), I would expect to see them at 0z. Yep 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I dont much care what the 18z GFS shows. When the Euro takes a step back- even a small one- it will be close to fork sticking time. Yep 20 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I consider the 18z run to be a plus, considering what some people think of the 18z run in general compared to the 0z and 12z. Yep Maybe it is just a throwback to old days but I have never really had much use for the off runs of the GFS especially the 18Z. In my mind any major changes we see with them are as just as likely to be wrong as they are right when it comes to sensible weather in our region during east coast cyclogenisis. About the only use for them is for verifying the 12z and 00Z solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Anyone else upset that models bring warm temperatures on d9? If we're gonna whiff on snow I at least want to see a frozen bay! That's due to a storm going well to our North. If what we've seen with models overamping storms at long range holds true, it should be farther south. GEFS has basically no warmup during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z NAVGEM ticked west again thru 72 and has more flow backing along the SE coastline. Coastal front to the N of the lp evident....fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z NAVGEM ticked west again thru 72 and has more flow backing along the SE coastline. Coastal front to the N of the lp evident....fwiw. Yeah thought it was further west through around Day 3 then it was ever so slightly east up here and off MA but it’s still west of the GFS which usually indicates the GFS is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah thought it was further west through around Day 3 then it was ever so slightly east up here and off MA but it’s still west of the GFS which usually indicates the GFS is out to lunch So I admittedly am not used to tracking winter storms having just moved here, but I know with tropical, when the NAM and HRRR disagree with the GFS, the GFS tends to be right. I remember with Hurricane Matthew, both had it slamming into Florida for numerous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEFS is farther West. Would've expected it to follow the op, but it looks like it has more costal scrapers. Not surprising that it's not as far West as EPS edit: looks about the same, but more close solutions for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NAVGEM went east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEFS is farther West. Would've expected it to follow the op, but it looks like it has more costal scrapers. Not surprising that it's not as far West as EPS edit: looks about the same, but more close solutions for usCool thing is, the trof is farther East and the surface low is farther W on the GEFS. Capture on some individuals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: NAVGEM went east Precip Shield farther west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: NAVGEM went east Looks like precip manages to get into areas just SE of DC at hr 96, but looks SE of New England? Hmm? Strange difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 11 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS is farther West. Would've expected it to follow the op, but it looks like it has more costal scrapers. Not surprising that it's not as far West as EPS edit: looks about the same, but more close solutions for us Cool thing is, the trof is farther East and the surface low is farther W on the GEFS. Capture on some individuals? Judging that 3 members get 0.1" of snow into DC vs 0 last run, I'm guessing some got captured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Looks like precip manages to get into areas just SE of DC at hr 96, but looks SE of New England? Hmm? Strange difference Could this be because the models are starting to come into focus as to the size of the precip field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS is not likely going to catch on for awhile. At this point we just don’t want to see any marked east push by the CMC UKIE or Euro tonight. Otherwise I anticipate the GFS will be a holdout until at least tomorrow night if not Tuesday morning GFS is probably showing the same thing as the GGEM if you look closely enough. 700mb troff line stalls over NYC, but it decides not to merge the precip areas for some reason. GFS was wrong when it did this same thing in march. Won't do us any good, but east of the CT river may get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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