nj2va Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Here's the money shot, if there is one, on the Nam. 700mb RH. It's 84 hours so use with caution, but it shows deep moisture headed towards us. If you put it in motion at the ncep site, it's even better looking. It's a shame TT doesn't have this on their site. I thought it looked pretty good at 84 even for 95, or at least keeps me interested for another set of runs. Double barreled low, too. There’s nothing else to track, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Man it sure would be nice for the happy hour GFS to deliver some digital snow goods. Honestly though, just keep trending our way would be an acceptable result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: Man it sure would be nice for the happy hour GFS to deliver some digital snow goods. Honestly though, just keep trending our way would be an acceptable result. If we could score even 2-3 inches before the deep freeze this weekend this cold period would seem worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I thought it looked pretty good at 84 even for 95, or at least keeps me interested for another set of runs. Double barreled low, too. There’s nothing else to track, anyways. No need for excuses. Tracking is what we do. We also whine, argue, etc. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: If we could score even 2-3 inches before the deep freeze this weekend this cold period would seem worth it. Anything more than a dusting is a win. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Anything more than a dusting is a win. Lol. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 So I went back over the last 96 hours of runs to where some guidance was really gung ho on the dual low 'phenomenon'. I wanted to find out why models were placing a lp area nearer the coast. Most 500mb maps on models showing the dual low feature all screamed bogus as the main show was well East with the front running energy. So I decided to dig deeper to find out why even with the eastern lp running the show were these models hinting at a dual low or tug west of the main show that was tracking farther East. Something many, including myself, were overlooking and one of the main reasons I believe the storm will either continue shifting W of runs OR at the very least have the dual low tucked closer to the coast is simple.......extreme thermal gradient-based baroclinic zone. This is my completely amateur opinion but with 2m temps running 15-25 BN in spots even along the coast PLUS sst's in the Gulf Stream running AN, there is one heck of a gradient in thermals near the coast. Low pressure LOVES this type of setup whether for a coastal front/baroclinic zone or just an area of weakness/path of least resistance for lp to travel. I am confident that when the hi res models start seeing this and get into range we will see better surface reflection of the dual low look or a weakness nearer the coastline. Now, this may or may not have a massive impact if the front running energy scoots out too far ahead BUT recent trends at 500mb now signal that the main show is ticking West irt trof axis farther west. As long as this look/trend continues, while we may not see a singular well defined lp hugging the coast, there should be enough of an influence from the anomalous thermal gradient to draw moisture and bagginess much nearer that what guidance is showing overall attm. Just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I like the streamlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It’s the NAM and call me crazy, but subtle differences noted on the evolution of the southern stream wave. More vigorous, slower to eject, neutral to even slow neg tilt trend toward hr 75, northern stream a bit further south/southwest. Surface low develops further west. Pieces of energy coming ashore now coming into play with respect to guidance. Not saying it’s gospel, but things are changing and evolving and each run getting more interesting from the MA to SNE. We are a long shot, but still 96 hours out and things can change. The NAM is sniffing it out....and it doesnt stink either. The NAVGEM is leading the W ticks yet again. This could be the fourth....yes the 4th time this month that the NAVGEM has raised the red flag sitting on the western edge of guidance. Not saying it is right, but it is 3 for 3 since Dec 9. Been sniffing alot of pattern and storm shifts out subtly. I am not interested in track verbatim right now, but we are all in a solid position. Would rather be watching a scenario like this unfold with the bullseye on New England at 96 hours rather than the other way around. Stay tuned on this one....McCoy might want to tell Jim it's not dead just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Looks like good news. I like CWG's prediction of temps being 2-4 degrees below normal, with below normal precip, but average snowfall. Seems like patterns would support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 @ 54 SV's look a little closer together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 At 54 higher heights long the coast. This is one of the main features I look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Low forming East of Miami. Looks West already, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Looks like a little negative tilt at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Low forming East of Miami. Looks West already, but we'll see. this is why i'm still in. even if we're looking at flurries here, it's an interesting winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS has Northern Wave looking better, but surface precip doesn't agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NOT going to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, snow1 said: NOT going to get it done About the same as 12z on the precip side, but a tad East. Better wave interaction, but doesn't cut it. I'm gonna hope this is GFS being the GFS, and hope that the GEFS supports the trends. 0z Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS pretty much holds steady this run. Pushes the southern stream wave out too fast and northern stream catches up OTS. Phasing and capture is too far away to give the MA much impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'm fine with the gfs. I'd rather this solution over a few flurries and a blizzard from NYC to Boston. Time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This run was almost the same as the 12Z, maybe a little worse. Yesterday the 12 and 18Z runs showed improvements and then the 0Z models this morning took a turn for the worse. Hope we don't get a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS pretty much holds steady this run. Pushes the southern stream wave out too fast and northern stream catches up OTS. Phasing and capture is too far away to give the MA much impact. Certainly phased much later than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, wkd said: This run was almost the same as the 12Z, maybe a little worse. Yesterday the 12 and 18Z runs showed improvements and then the 0Z models this morning took a turn for the worse. Hope we don't get a repeat. I like the Euro ticking West, and the NAVGEM as well. Don't know if it'll be enough, but this is getting interesting, especially for Annapolis and points East. Naso much for DC, but if the Euro is correct, it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Negnao said: I'm fine with the gfs. I'd rather this solution over a few flurries and a blizzard from NYC to Boston. Time to move on. Move on to what? There's nothing else to track at this moment, unless you're talking about chasing D8 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS remained the same almost which isnt terrible. It could have jumped east or taken a step back but I dont feel it did that. Looping the NAM surface from 66-84hrs that has the closest Jan 25, 2000 look that I have seen modeled in a long long time. I know weenies toss that storm around quite a bit but this is one time we actually have something close. I am looking at the NAM and having flashbacks to the AVN and ETA on Jan 22, 2000. That was 72 hours lead time.....we have 84+.......alot of time on our side. Going to be a nailbiter and roller coaster next 36 hours but I feel good that we start honing in a solution that will make the major metro area weenies smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS remained the same almost which isnt terrible. It could have jumped east or taken a step back but I dont feel it did that. Looping the NAM surface from 66-84hrs that has the closest Jan 25, 2000 look that I have seen modeled in a long long time. I know weenies toss that storm around quite a bit but this is one time we actually have something close. I am looking at the NAM and having flashbacks to the AVN and ETA on Jan 22, 2000. That was 72 hours lead time.....we have 84+.......alot of time on our side. Going to be a nailbiter and roller coaster next 36 hours but I feel good that we start honing in a solution that will make the major metro area weenies smile. I hope so. I also noticed that the GFS is 10mb weaker for whatever reason. We are on the edge of no snow/snow, and so any shifts help. Unless the 0z suite shifts East, I'm feeling optimistic at seeing at least snowflakes. Good posts by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 My problem with the 18z GFS was we lost it trying to form that second low. The only good solution we’ve had in a few days was based on its existence, and I didn’t see a hint of it in the 18z GFS. NAM is interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z GFS pretty much holding is not a bad or unexpected thing. If there are going to be any changes that matter at this juncture(good or bad), I would expect to see them at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Reminder: Offshore areas average a lot more precipitation than 75 miles inland. There's a meteorological reason for that. If you live on land, you need a LLJ to transport moisture inland, if you're a fish, you don't. This is why getting precip to trend 75miles inland will be a lot harder than getting it to skim the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.