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New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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Just now, Interstate said:

The Panic Room is going to be hopping soon.

Good news is, our expectations are 0.0". Any accumulating snow is a win here. Just 2 days ago models depicted it as going out towards Bermuda. We'll get our fair share of snow, and from the looks of it, we are entering (after next week) a better period for snow with less frigid temps like we've so far experienced. 

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It’s the NAM and call me crazy, but subtle differences noted on the evolution of the southern stream wave. More vigorous, slower to eject, neutral to even slow neg tilt trend toward hr 75, northern stream a bit further south/southwest. Surface low develops further west. Pieces of energy coming ashore now coming into play with respect to guidance. Not saying it’s gospel, but things are changing and evolving and each run getting more interesting from the MA to SNE. We are a long shot, but still 96 hours out and things can change. 

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This week's event has all the earmarks of the worst case scenario we talked about when it first started showing up. Nothing but clouds west of the bay and a mod or sig event for NYC on up. Lol. I can help rooting for everyone to miss out...

Not a big fan of the eps for the d8 event. Way too many soltuions that perfectly time precip onset happening after we lose the midlevels and surface. That would be the epitome of frustrating winter wx. Crap ton of spread on the evolution though so everything is on the table. 

Later in the period it really does remind me a bit of what we saw in 13-14. Pna/epo ridge and a +nao/war. Hopefully we can win a gradient battle or 2 if that's where we are going. 

 

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Just got back home and had a chance to see the Euro. That secondary that tries to form to the west of the primary is in response to the product of the phasing we see with the Southern energy and the Northern energy + the energy trailing that (at this point the trailing energy has been so quick that it and the lead NS energy are virtually indistinguishable). Pretty sloppy phasing overall but again it is an improvement over previous runs and we see that reflected with an improvement on the surface. Seeing the response we get from this sloppy phase actually is quite encouraging for the possibilities if we get a clean phase or even two. My takeaway from this run is if we see even just one good and clean phase into that southern energy we are most definitely in the game. We would most likely either see the primary reform to the west as we now see it attempting to do, or more likely in my mind, we actually see the primary move directly up into roughly that spot from the south. 

Overall it was a good run to show the possibilities and actually shows another possible way we can score. This morning I had mentioned that we needed more separation with those two pieces of NS energy if we stood a chance (barring major changes to the overall setup). After seeing this run I think I have changed my mind. With just a partial injection of the trailing NS energy into the lead we saw a more potent piece of energy diving into the southern stream piece during the phasing and we saw the results. If we were to see a full injection of that trailing NS energy into the lead before the phase we would end up with quite a potent piece of energy dropping into the southern. Needless to say, that would be a good thing. Add in a clean phase to boot....

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