Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: 12Z ensembles look considerably better. Not a hit per se, but a definite improvement over 00Z. Yea, @Bob Chill mentioned that yesterday...we needed more hits. This is decent to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: 12Z ensembles look considerably better. Not a hit per se, but a definite improvement over 00Z. Yeah, more individual members get snow in our region. 11/50 give DC accumulating snow, while 16/20 give areas to the SE accumulating snow. Pretty dismal odds, but there is a chance this trend continues Also, more members show bigger hit for SE New England compared to last run where more were OTS. Good improvement all around for a West trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Better.. It looks like about 10 of those would work pretty well for us.....enough to keep me interested that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 another 75 mile shift and the beaches will at least see a nice snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Yeah, more individual members get snow in our region. 11/50 give DC accumulating snow, while 16/20 give areas to the SE accumulating snow. Pretty dismal odds, but there is a chance this trend continues Do you have the individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: another 75 mile shift and the beaches DC metro area will at least see a nice snow out of this Fixed. 75 miles and the 0.4 line would be getting close to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 true, but living on the edge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Do you have the individual members? Yeah, I'll post them below Couple give us a decent snowfall. It's kinda hard to tell which individual members give us 0.1", since many have 0.1" from today's snow band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Negnao said: Eps mean precip ticked west. Getting exciting for the beaches. Although it doesn't look like much difference for I-95, the better juice ticked nicely west to our south over NC, as well as for the beaches up here. Not a bad trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: The stronger lows get precip back here #43,45,17. I was expecting to see a double barrel look for those, but they are really just strong lows tucked closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, I'll post them below Couple give us a decent snowfall. It's kinda hard to tell which individual members give us 0.1", since many have 0.1" from today's snow band What are you chasing? I only count 4 that even get 2" into dca. None that get something remotely significant. And not a single one that gets anything even close to me that I would waste any of my time on. I saw the improvements today as a baby step when an ocean is between us and where we need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What are you chasing? I only count 4 that even get 2" into dca. None that get something remotely significant. And not a single one that gets anything even close to me that I would waste any of my time on. I saw the improvements today as a baby step when an ocean is between us and where we need to be. Our far eastern forum members are interested for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 FWIW Cranky supports the idea of the double barrel low. Thinks GFS is seeing it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
93Blizzard Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I liked reading the discussions better when they weren’t ran by freshmen in High School. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What are you chasing? I only count 4 that even get 2" into dca. None that get something remotely significant. And not a single one that gets anything even close to me that I would waste any of my time on. I saw the improvements today as a baby step when an ocean is between us and where we need to be. There is nothing reasonable to track for at least the next 7 days or so. What am I doing to affect you? At the very most if I'm lucky, I get mood snowflakes to an inch. I'm not gonna be chasing fantasy snow 8 days + in advance, so I'm trying to work with what I have here. Also, someone asked me to post that. It isn't like I tried to wishcast there. Better than sitting in the banter threat and/or panic room and complaining about this cold and dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: There is nothing reasonable to track for at least the next 7 days or so. What am I doing to affect you? At the very most if I'm lucky, I get mood snowflakes to an inch. I'm not gonna be chasing fantasy snow 8 days + in advance, so I'm trying to work with what I have here. Also, someone asked me to post that. It isn't like I tried to wishcast there. Cobalt, let the weather jade you, not the people in here. I, for one, appreciate your excitement and don't see it as wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not chasing PSU...just tracking. I love tracking these monster storms ...getting snow imby is the cherry on top but I'm enjoying the sundae regardless . It is a weather discussion forum isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hello everyone, I have enjoyed reading the discussions in this forum for some time now and have decided to make an account. I hope I can contribute some things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What are you chasing? I only count 4 that even get 2" into dca. None that get something remotely significant. And not a single one that gets anything even close to me that I would waste any of my time on. I saw the improvements today as a baby step when an ocean is between us and where we need to be. Isn’t this a weather forum? Nothing else to track is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Isn’t this a weather forum? Nothing else to track is there? I don't know man, looks like a pretty good storm setting up day 15 Sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: There is nothing reasonable to track for at least the next 7 days or so. What am I doing to affect you? At the very most if I'm lucky, I get mood snowflakes to an inch. I'm not gonna be chasing fantasy snow 8 days + in advance, so I'm trying to work with what I have here. Also, someone asked me to post that. It isn't like I tried to wishcast there. Better than sitting in the banter threat and/or panic room and complaining about this cold and dry pattern. The average forecast error at 96 hours for Atlantic hurricanes is around 125 miles. I'm not sure how that compares to east coast storms but if you draw a 125 mile cone on either side of the EPS mean low track we're still in the game. Not likely a SECS or MECS but I think we have a reasonable chance of getting into accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: FWIW Cranky supports the idea of the double barrel low. Thinks GFS is seeing it wrong. If the GFS shifts significantly west at 18z my interest increases, otherwise no dice. In dreamland at 240. The Euro if taken literally is quite interesting with LP over S. Georgia, HP near Huron and a prominent Atlantic ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: FWIW Cranky supports the idea of the double barrel low. Thinks GFS is seeing it wrong. The GFS actually has a double barrel low. It just rotates around the primary before it gets here, so the lows are stacked vertically off the mid-Atlantic coast. (I'm not sure if this is technically the Fujiwhara effect, but it's something very similar.) On the other hand, the Euro keeps the secondary low to the west of the primary near our latitude, which pushes more precip to the west. The GGEM never really seems to develop a secondary low center, but it comes close north of us, so congrats Boston. This might end up being about where and when the secondary low forms, and how quickly it rotates around the primary. We'd want them oriented so that the secondary makes its closest pass to the coast near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: The average forecast error at 96 hours for Atlantic hurricanes is around 125 miles. I'm not sure how that compares to east coast storms but if you draw a 125 mile cone on either side of the EPS mean low track we're still in the game. Not likely a SECS or MECS but I think we have a reasonable chance of getting into accumulating snow. Even a 60-75 mile shift West could make a big impact, especially if the precip shield is further West than depicted, as someone said. Snow is snow, and so if there's nothing to track in the 4 days, I'll be tracking this then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cobalt said: There is nothing reasonable to track for at least the next 7 days or so. What am I doing to affect you? At the very most if I'm lucky, I get mood snowflakes to an inch. I'm not gonna be chasing fantasy snow 8 days + in advance, so I'm trying to work with what I have here. Also, someone asked me to post that. It isn't like I tried to wishcast there. Better than sitting in the banter threat and/or panic room and complaining about this cold and dry pattern. I enjoy your optimism. Keep it as it will serve you well in life. As for this storm, the most likely outcome is us missing and watching our neighbors just to our east and northeast get slammed. A few of those over a lifetime can take a lot out of you. 2010 still hurts. As for this storm, I hope you can bring it home for us all. Sorry for the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ooff for Friday's temps from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Climate175 said: Ooff for Friday's temps from the GFS. Insanely impressive without snow cover. Sorry If I'm wrong, but is this the coldest airmass since 2015? Seems like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Insanely impressive without snow cover. Sorry If I'm wrong, but is this the coldest airmass since 2015? Seems like it. I was thinking more like January of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Insanely impressive without snow cover. Sorry If I'm wrong, but is this the coldest airmass since 2015? Seems like it. Hey we don't know that yet. You've inspired me to get a half inch. That would be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The Panic Room is going to be hopping soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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