stormy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Typically, as in the case, here you want to see the trough axis neutral roughly around the Mississippi. The trough set up now is neutral about 150-200 miles to far to the east hence the storm is OTS about 150-200 miles. I have signed off on Thursday. Trough axis too far east, repeatedly. Of interest is a week from tomorrow. The 12z GEM gives us an inch of rain with temperatures climbing into the 50's, followed by colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: But is the weak SW troughing that is forcing the SE ridge the real deal or another phantom in the long range that we have seen time and again. Above my pay grade. Lol. Pattern is breaking so there's that. How it breaks and what it morphs into is something we'll be discussing for a week. It does look like next weekend's cold blast is the final push. That nasty western ridge is going to at the very least open the door for a big pac airmass to traverse the country. That part seems likely. Where pieces fall into place after that will keep us busy chasing long range threats for a while. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 There was a wet signal a week ago for 1/7-1/9 it's still there fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: There was a wet signal a week ago for 1/7-1/9 it's still there fyi You aren't kidding. Pretty decent jump from D7-D10 in terms of precip. Precip mean jumps up 0.3-0.4", and snowfall mean jumps up 2". Certainly could be one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Typically, as in the case here, you want to see the trough axis neutral roughly around the Mississippi. The trough set up now is neutral about 150-200 miles to far to the east hence the storm is OTS about 150-200 miles. I know what you mean regarding the trough axis not going neutral soon enough. I was just noting that the Ridge axis out west (if portrayed semi-accurately) would usually translate to a storm track closer to the coast. If the western ridge axis location verifies as projected, there may be some further westward storm track adjustments. Still likely too little, too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: There was a wet signal a week ago for 1/7-1/9 it's still there fyi It looks like a relaxed version of 13/14 with waves running boundary. A potential win some lose some pattern instead of cold dry or warm wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, MDstorm said: I know what you mean regarding the trough axis not going neutral soon enough. I was just noting that the Ridge axis out west (if portrayed semi-accurately) would usually translate to a storm track closer to the coast. If the western ridge axis location verifies as projected, there may be some further westward storm track adjustments. Still likely too little, too late for us. as currently modeled, the western ridge is ok, but its the east that's the problem. That's why the NS energy needs to dive in on the SW side of the trough, so that we can get better ridging in the east and the storm can tuck back west and bring some of us back into the game. this would also help the trough axis to be more favorably tilted. Were not getting that, and like stated, it looks better, but a closer miss....is still.....we'll ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NAVGEM is real close to putting us in the game, but at this point it's a major outlier. Still trending West though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: NAVGEM is real close to putting us in the game, but at this point it's a major outlier. Still trending West though If I saw something like that on the Euro I would jump in the pool even if it had no water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: If I saw something like that on the Euro I would jump in the pool even if it had no water Euro is closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 If we are counting on the NAVGEM then I think we are pretty much pooched at this point. 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: NAVGEM is real close to putting us in the game, but at this point it's a major outlier. Still trending West though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Alright, I'll take a stab at it. @ 84 shortwave looks stronger and a tad west/more negative. ETA: The experts, is this why it ticked west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 euro seems much faster to me? thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 !! SO close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro gets western edge of precip to I-95. although it might just be virga. Looks like some pretty heavy snow at the beaches this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Euro trying look at 500. Just not sure what to make of that. Verbatim, low does jump notably west. just not sure how it got there. Doesnt seem right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 More precip into NC at 84 vs. last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro trying Yep. My takeaway from the 12z runs is that the GFS and EURO both attempted the double-barrel miracle we’d need. Just need a little more help from the snow weenie gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wonder how many kittens will be born aftet this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 People that waved the white flag—you are not allowed back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: look at 500. Just not sure what to make of that. Verbatim, low does jump notably west. just not sure how it got there. Doesnt seem right to me. Those are the kind of jumps we need. Wonder if that dual low is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Using 15:1 ratios, MD/DE beaches get 6-10" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Wonder how many kittens will be born aftet this run least it wont be rainin catpaws.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 im still in.....but im northeastern tidewater virginia so my chances are a bit higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Those are the kind of jumps we need. Wonder if that dual low is still there. it appears to be. more of a w/e orientation and not n/s. Now you need the western part to win the day for the scraper to happen. Boy if i lived in Boston.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yep. My takeaway from the 12z runs is that the GFS and EURO both attempted the double-barrel miracle we’d need. Just need a little more help from the snow weenie gods. It actually doesn’t look that different from the 12z ukie from yesterday. I wonder why the ukie showed so much more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Kuchera- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: It actually doesn’t look that different from the 12z ukie from yesterday. I wonder why the ukie showed so much more precip. 2nd low right along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Kuchera- Ultimate DC tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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