New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK doesn’t look too exciting for us.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021

[ryanconway63]

I think we need to at least see some improvements in the Euro at 12z for us to have any chance at this one.  If Euro goes east I think stick a fork in it.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I ended up last night. If I lived in SNE I'D be pretty excited. We're a lot further south and a good bit further west than that area. Not one single piece of guidance shows the parts necessary to get west of the bay in the game and the general upper level setup remains hostile for that to happen.

If I lived in your neck I would be interested enough in getting into the outer edges of precip as the low passes our latitude. I could see your yard getting a couple inches. 

It's possible, but my only interest in it now is that I am likely headed somewhere this week. If the beaches can get in on a few hours of wind driven snow, I might head to Rehoboth and hang out at Dogfish and Fins. Otherwise I am probably going to Canaan lol.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Congrats, Bermuda.

If it trends another 300 miles west or so, we might be in the ballgame.

[nw baltimore wx]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes because the western low in double barrel scenario is the redevelopment as the upper level energy dives in. It then pulls everything due north. If the initial low that runs out is all there is it's way OTS. That's not getting pulled back in. 

My hope is the gfs at this range is focusing on only the primary low and instead of separating the two lows, it is putting them together as one system. If so, is it possible that the mean keeps looking like a westward trend when it might be that there may end up being two lows (like the ukie suggested yesterday) and because the western secondary is stronger each gfs run, the mean appears to be shifting west?

eta: not trying to be a weenie. I just think the gfs is oversimplifying the system.

[ryanconway63]

are there any comparisons with this storm to the Jan 2000 storm?

[Cobalt]

are there any comparisons with this storm to the Jan 2000 storm?

Not completely sure. I know that the Jan 2000 storm had that classic squall line that smashed into Western Florida, which probably means that the low developed further West than this storm.


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[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

are there any comparisons with this storm to the Jan 2000 storm?

Not really other than unusual track. Jan 00 had a vigorous shortwave rounding the base. This one just has a disturbance that needs to get captured by the northern stream to back in here. Lows that are born east of FL have no history of sig impacts for our region unless I'm missing something. 

[ryanconway63]

I just remember the forecast for eastern virginia was flurries or a dusting and within 12 hours the forecast had jumped to 4 inches, and a few hours later 12+

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Still completely out on this I take it?

Yea I don't want to be the party pooper but I'm not feeling it. Anything is possible.  I wouldn't feel like its a true miracle or anything but if we're talking strict probability I put this at like 5% or less. Not enough to get me vested and excited.  I don't like to throw around absolutes, but there are several reasons I'm out.  

The trough is digging too far east for my liking. The angle of approach is all wrong. It's essentially a miller b for our purposes. The incremental improvements people are noticing are real but when I look at the overall setup they are tiny fractions of the huge shifts we need. What everyone is getting worked up about is imo only going to help Boston. I would be getting excited if I was there.

My point there is when we need a 150 mile shift in the track and people are high fiveing over a 20 mile shift I roll my eyes. I think because there were a few random outlier op runs that blasted us the last several days people are underestimating just how far the consensus track actually is from what we need. If I lived east of 95 I might be more hopeful. 

Another thing some are throwing around is the "north trend" thing. But we need a west trend. Different. The north trend is a very real thing but it happens when we have a stj system coming across. Often the northern stream ends up less suppressive. And often the models aren't expansive enough with precip on the NW side. That combo is why we get that phenomenon more often then not. Neither of those factors helps us a lick now.  We actually need the northern steam to dig more and capture/phase early. It's almost the opposite of what typically we get. 

And these very small noise shifts in guidance the last 48 hours haven't changed  my mind.  Overall I've seen no significant improvement if we go back 4 full runs. Some got worse then the next run sightly better and in the end we're right back where we were. That's called consensus. 

Those are my reasons but I'm not one of these stubborn stick in the muds who will go down with the ship not to flip flop and I want it to snow as much as anyone I can promise you that.  So the minute I see something compelling that changes my mind I will say so.  I want to be in.  I just don't see it.  I hope I'm wrong...won't be the first or last time.  

 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I don't want to be the party pooper but I'm not feeling it. Anything is possible.  I wouldn't feel like its a true miracle or anything but if we're talking strict probability I put this at like 5% or less. Not enough to get me vested and excited.  I don't like to throw around absolutes, but there are several reasons I'm out.  

The trough is digging too far east for my liking. The angle of approach is all wrong. It's essentially a miller b for our purposes. The incremental improvements people are noticing are real but when I look at the overall setup they are tiny fractions of the huge shifts we need. What everyone is getting worked up about is imo only going to help Boston. I would be getting excited if I was there.

My point there is when we need a 150 mile shift in the track and people are high fiveing over a 20 mile shift I roll my eyes. I think because there were a few random outlier op runs that blasted us the last several days people are underestimating just how far the consensus track actually is from what we need. If I lived east of 95 I might be more hopeful. 

Another thing some are throwing around is the "north trend" thing. But we need a west trend. Different. The north trend is a very real thing but it happens when we have a stj system coming across. Often the northern stream ends up less suppressive. And often the models aren't expansive enough with precip on the NW side. That combo is why we get that phenomenon more often then not. Neither of those factors helps us a lick now.  We actually need the northern steam to dig more and capture/phase early. It's almost the opposite of what typically we get. 

And these very small noise shifts in guidance the last 48 hours haven't changed  my mind.  Overall I've seen no significant improvement if we go back 4 full runs. Some got worse then the next run sightly better and in the end we're right back where we were. That's called consensus. 

Those are my reasons but I'm not one of these stubborn stick in the muds who will go down with the ship not to flip flop and I want it to snow as much as anyone I can promise you that.  So the minute I see something compelling that changes my mind I will say so.  I want to be in.  I just don't see it.  I hope I'm wrong...won't be the first or last time.  

 

Yeah I pretty much agree with all of this. I'm still in because there is nothing to track, unless you like tracking bone dry and frigid weather, and maybe a few things come together and change and suddenly we have an impact. If we are sitting here Tuesday in a similar spot with not many changes I'll be ready to mail it in. I guess my hope is still a major modeling error or possibly a double-barrel structure starts coming back.

[Cobalt]

Yeah I pretty much agree with all of this. I'm still in because there is nothing to track, unless you like tracking bone dry and frigid weather, and maybe a few things come together and change and suddenly we have an impact. If we are sitting here Tuesday in a similar spot with not many changes I'll be ready to mail it in. I guess my hope is still a major modeling error or possibly a double-barrel structure starts coming back.

Yeah, I agree with you. Nothing to track, so why not track this. Maybe we can get that rapid NW trend that we had with the Dec 8-9 storm. Fairly sure it happened for the Dec 26th 2010 event, but of course we all know how that ended


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[ryanconway63]

We need the low to form over Florida it seems, not in the bahamas

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yeah, I agree with you. Nothing to track, so why not track this. Maybe we can get that rapid NW trend that we had with the Dec 8-9 storm. Fairly sure it happened for the Dec 26th 2010 event, but of course we all know how that ended


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Im going to repeat this one more time because I really think you need to hear it. Not because I'm being an arse. I like your enthusiasm but you need to add some substance so it's not only that. You probably know as much or more then I did at your age so I'm not being condescending but I want you to learn. Wish I had this place when I was your age.

But if this does find a way to pull off a hit for us it won't be for the same reasons you keep citing. 

"Another thing some are throwing around is the "north trend" thing. But we need a west trend. Different. The north trend is a very real thing but it happens when we have a stj system coming across. Often the northern stream ends up less suppressive. And often the models aren't expansive enough with precip on the NW side. That combo is why we get that phenomenon more often then not. Neither of those factors helps us a lick now.  We actually need the northern steam to dig more and capture/phase early. It's almost the opposite of what typically we get. "

So what we are rooting for here is any combo of a west trend in the trough, more dig,slower stj wave, faster neg tilt and a faster phase.  None of those are really what usually contributes to the "north trend" you and others have noticed often happens late in the game when we have a southern branch system progged to slide out under us. 

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

We need the low to form over Florida it seems, not in the bahamas

Or one nearer to FL and the other further into the Bahamas.  I don't think some separation would hurt and it's probably necessary for us to get a modest event.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Or one nearer to FL and the other further into the Bahamas.  I don't think some separation would hurt and it's probably necessary for us to get a modest event.

Absent that initial stj wave slowing down we might be better off if it ran off and left room behind for something else to amplify. We're stuck in between timing wise. Story of our snow weenie lives. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

At this point we need about a 150-200 mile shift west just to get fringed (on the GFS), so probably like 250+ to get a decent event.  While not impossible our time is running out and my personal benchmark will be 0z tonight.  If all we see are minor trends by then I think I’m gonna tap out. 

[psuhoffman]

All systems are different. When it's a wave on a boundary and most of the precip is due to a tightening baroclinic ribbon or WAA then the lower levels are where to look. But with major amplification just looping the h5 gives a general feel. The atmosphere works like waves. And you can see from the loops that this wave is diving in over top of us meaning the major amplification will be east of us. It could chance but the setup doesn't say it to me. 

[Interstate]

Frankie should be excited about this storm

[Cobalt]

At this point we need about a 150-200 mile shift west just to get fringed (on the GFS), so probably like 250+ to get a decent event.  While not impossible our time is running out and my personal benchmark will be 0z tonight.  If all we see are minor trends by then I think I’m gonna tap out. 

My personal benchmark is 12z Monday, but if nothing changes from here to 0z, I'm probably gonna tap out


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[Scraff]

Just food for thought...

[cae]

Putting my weenie hat on, I noticed that the GEPS average snow depth for our area went up again for the 00z run last night.  It has now gone up for three runs in a row.  There are fewer hits for our area, but on average they're bigger.  However considering all guidance, it's not looking good.  Losing the Ukie was a big blow. 

[mitchnick]

Fwiw,  Ukie brings .1" line westward to about Trappe, MD this run vs. offshore at 0z. OC is around .3+" qpf.

[MDstorm]

17 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Just food for thought...

Ridge axis out west is actually in a good location..... usually translates to a storm track closer to the coast.  Oh well.

[Cobalt]

Just food for thought...

That part about the precip shield extending West could certainly help us. Pretty sure someone pointed out that models underplay the Western side of precip shield. If everything goes right in terms of trends in the next 24 hours, we would be very close to snow. Unlikely, but could happen


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[clskinsfan]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Absent that initial stj wave slowing down we might be better off if it ran off and left room behind for something else to amplify. We're stuck in between timing wise. Story of our snow weenie lives. 

Really the story of the Mid Atlantic when you have a LP over the lakes. This one is different in that we want to that low to try to capture/phase with the storm. But in reality when we see a LP over the lakes 99.9% of the time that is not good news for our area. We need a northern stream LP to dive down out of the Dakota's and phase south of us. 

[Bob Chill]

Figured I'd add a glimmer of hope. Not about the thursday deal but what comes next. Gfs/cmc are depressing but embedded inside of the various solutions look a lot more interesting. Especially on the gefs. D9-12 is the next legit shot at something without a hail Mary and the 12z gefs flipped to a lot of interesting looks honestly. Not all clean and pretty but far from a disaster. 

Looking beyond that is becoming interesting too. Gefs is hell bent of developing a -ao. Might be similar to what happened recently with the epo ridge pressing poleward and then folding over. Either way, a -ao with a touch of a se ridge is a very welcome sight. Would greatly increase precip chances if nothing else. Eps doesn't look much different but not as sweet as what the gefs is showing.  

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Ridge axis out west is actually in a good location..... usually translates to a storm track closer to the coast.  Oh well.

Typically, as in the case here, you want to see the trough axis neutral roughly around the Mississippi. The trough set up now is neutral about 150-200 miles to far to the east hence the storm is OTS about 150-200 miles.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Figured I'd add a glimmer of hope. Not about the thursday deal but what comes next. Gfs/cmc are depressing but embedded inside of the various solutions look a lot more interesting. Especially on the gefs. D9-12 is the next legit shot at something without a hail Mary and the 12z gefs flipped to a lot of interesting looks honestly. Not all clean and pretty but far from a disaster. 

Looking beyond that is becoming interesting too. Gefs is hell bent of developing a -ao. Might be similar to what happened recently with the epo ridge pressing poleward and then folding over. Either way, a -ao with a touch of a se ridge is a very welcome sight. Would greatly increase precip chances if nothing else. Eps doesn't look much different but not as sweet as what the gefs is showing.  

But is the weak SW troughing that is forcing the SE ridge the real deal or another phantom in the long range that we have seen time and again. 

eta: Quick glance earlier this morning through that period but I got the impression we might be looking at something driving into the lakes and then something forming on the southern portion of that front and moving up. Quick glance though so maybe I am off on that.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Typically, as in the case, here you want to see the trough axis neutral roughly around the Mississippi. The trough set up now is neutral about 150-200 miles to far to the east hence the storm is OTS about 150-200 miles.

Good post. If you go back to the big euro hits and compare h5 to right now you will see that there are significant differences that aren't nearly as favorable. We have no block, progressive flow, and a trough that is over 100 miles too far east and at the same time hoping a storm off the coast of FL tracks west.