SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Northern stream digging a little further west and heights a touch higher on the east coast through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hat 66 hts, northern stream clearly west of 6z....meaningful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Through 72, more neutrally tilted compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Notable improvements thru 66 hmm...interesting. NS energy digging more SW, helping tilt a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I’m feeling the New Years Eve good vibes building... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The call is based on 10mb geopotential height propagating to the 500mb level, so the call is more for Greenland ridging/blocking than the actual NAO which is sea level pressure difference in the eastern Atlantic. I do think the NAO will average negative for DJF because of Atlantic SSTs this past May-Sept. Do you know of any association with the NAO, ( going more negative in Jan., Feb and maybe even March ) that is associated with changes in the seasonal wavelenghts? Long vs short as we dive deeper into Jan and Feb . I heard about the Atlanitc SST profile you speak of, and looking ahead to use that in predicting the DJF NAO states. I believe there was also a tool developed by Al Martino ( spelling ? ) few years ago, but if memory serves me correctly , he used that tool and predicted a - NAO in DJF a couple winters back and at least during that winter the NAO did not cooperate. I know Isotherm and Benchmark both were thinking in thier winter outlooks an assist from a - NAO in late Dec. or early Jan , but both felt the NAO would not average negative this winter , ( more info within the wintder outlooks they have posted here on America Weather ) I am looking forward to see how things shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I’m feeling the New Years Eve good vibes building... LP is slightly more SW at 84. Looks like a trend to me...so far. Headed to breakfast w/ fam. Have fun n bring it home gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Idk, without the double barreled lows, it's gunna be real tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 improvements but still a ways to go....decent lil snow for the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Idk, without the double barreled lows, it's gunna be real tough Yeah doesn’t do much for us in the end I would guess but it’s closer than 6z. ETA: Although at 90 hours there is a rather broad area of LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Idk, without the double barreled lows, it's gunna be real toughAgree. Though at 90 looks like it wants to form a second low to its west. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Idk, without the double barreled lows, it's gunna be real tough GFS is kind of trying though, no? I can certainty see something splitting off from this. Very broad low. ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Another miss. No double barreled low, no chance. Seems that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: We got tilt . Lol Some people in here are full tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z West of 6z, which is West of 0z. Good trend so far. Can we get a really GFS happy hour run this time?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 will there be any blocking for this storm to help push/keep it west and not go out to sea??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Some people in here are full tilt Still completely out on this I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 IMO this is very interesting. It really tries to pop that double barreled low. Looked nothing like this last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 These subtle run to run changes at h5 may seem noteworthy, but ultimately I doubt its going to get to a point where it gets it done for our region. I agree with Mitch. Without a second, tucked-in low, its hard to see how we get any significant precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 CMC further west than previous run and the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It's a shame because that would be memorable. It's a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: These subtle run to run changes at h5 may seen noteworthy, but ultimately I doubt its going to get to a point where it gets it done for our region. I agree with Mitch. Without a second, tucked-in low, its hard to see how we get any significant precip here. It’s still a pretty messy phase with pieces of energy pushing everything east. We need a full clean phase south of us for any shot and I don’t think anything has showed that in the last 2 days of runs minus the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, peribonca said: CMC further west than previous run and the GFS Misses the mid Atlantic and nukes SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: These subtle run to run changes at h5 may seen noteworthy, but ultimately I doubt its going to get to a point where it gets it done for our region. I agree with Mitch. Without a second, tucked-in low, its hard to see how we get any significant precip here. It's the only way it happened on the runs that showed a hit regardless of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Another miss. No double barreled low, no chance. Seems that simple. Yeah, but I doubt the development depicted on the gfs is how it unfolds. It seems to want to throw all the energy into one system. But that doesn't mean that if it ends up being different, that it is good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: IMO this is very interesting. It really tries to pop that double barreled low. Looked nothing like this last run. That would be something to keep an eye on for the next couple model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: These subtle run to run changes at h5 may seem noteworthy, but ultimately I doubt its going to get to a point where it gets it done for our region. I agree with Mitch. Without a second, tucked-in low, its hard to see how we get any significant precip here. They're noteworthy for New England, and maybe NYC. Not enough for us. The only analog I can think of is January 2000, and that had trailing energy that really helped expand the precip field westward. I don't see that in this case. Not in time for us. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Another miss. No double barreled low, no chance. Seems that simple. Yes because the western low in double barrel scenario is the redevelopment as the upper level energy dives in. It then pulls everything due north. If the initial low that runs out is all there is it's way OTS. That's not getting pulled back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: These subtle run to run changes at h5 may seem noteworthy, but ultimately I doubt its going to get to a point where it gets it done for our region. I agree with Mitch. Without a second, tucked-in low, its hard to see how we get any significant precip here. That's where I ended up last night. If I lived in SNE I'D be pretty excited. We're a lot further south and a good bit further west than that area. Not one single piece of guidance shows the parts necessary to get west of the bay in the game and the general upper level setup remains hostile for that to happen. If I lived in your neck I would be interested enough in getting into the outer edges of precip as the low passes our latitude. I could see your yard getting a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Is it really possible for a 966mb low to be that far south and out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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