showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: By the way, I know we all like to gang up on long range modeling, but I tend to view log range modeling as windows into possibilities. And I am certain that the ensembles about a week before Christmas in the long range had a set that were a big blue blob of polar cold way far south. And the group that had that was dry. I know PSU and a few others noted that we don’t want that much cold that far south optimally- and that has proved out so far. The alternate reality where the ensemble members a few weeks back that were wet and cold is an awesome alternate dimension. In other words, the long range modeling definitely showed the possibld outcome we are seeing at present. So, props to the modeling for that. That was my biggest concern leading into this. We did not want to see such large negative departures deep into the gulf states. Shuts off just about all the moisture for our region. Models though, initially had weak southwest troughing that was forcing higher heights underneath us and to our southeast forcing the cold farther north putting us in a very good spot. Some of our better looks came then. But we saw how that verified. All I know at this point is that the general overall pattern is probably locked in for awhile so we need to find a way to make it work. My preference is to see that weak SW troughing actually verify. But all we have had in that regards is phantoms on the models that disappear as they get into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, that does look better. Didnt catch that. Lets hope we can get the trough more neg. so this puppy can climb and tuck back west. We've all spent a lot of time searching for the storms in the last couple weeks as the advertised pattern looked promising, (but in truth, of late I've been laxed as the pattern just screamed suppression) and has been challenging for sure. I love the cold so Im not complaining, but it would be nice to put a storm or 2 on the boards. Here's to hoping. yeah, before the inevitable and undeniable warm up, and way before not like the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Navgem is way west. Gets precip onto western shore of bay. That would seem like a big red flag, but it is all on its own. Not much change from 0z in actual track just an overall stronger storm. Hoping it ticks even further west at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Here's the navy at 500 mb. Real nice change at 6z. 0z Next panel.. 0z That does look better. I’d think if we could get that to close off even down near the VA/NC border or OBX we’d be in better shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Well if we are looking for positives...FWIW...the NAM is digging that northern sw further west...so it’s a start and much better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Well if we are looking for positives...FWIW...the NAM is digging that northern sw further west...so it’s a start and much better than 6z Boy you aren’t kidding. Nam is MUCH improved looking at the 6z panels to 12z’s. Trying to sucker us in once again. Seems like some of the models are trying to throw us a bone here with the beginning runs today, namely the 12z Nam and the 6z Navy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I guess the actual NAO SLP connects with precip and larger snowstorms... having a Greenland ridge has been easy, but the actual NAO is positive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Boy you aren’t kidding. Nam is MUCH improved looking at the 6z panels to 12z’s. Trying to sucker us in once again. Seems like some of the models are trying to throw us a bone here with the beginning runs today, namely the 12z Nam and the 6z Navy. It's the 84 hour NAM. Lets extrapolate that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I guess the actual NAO SLP connects with precip and larger snowstorms... having a Greenland ridge has been easy, but the actual NAO is positive.... You still think your call for a - NAO manifesting itself in Jan is possible? You called for it a couple weeks ago based on the pattern moving forward. Just asking . Last time we had a drop of significance was back in mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I guess the actual NAO SLP connects with precip and larger snowstorms... having a Greenland ridge has been easy, but the actual NAO is positive.... Of all the indices, I believe the NAO is the toughest and least accurate modeling when it comes to forecasting in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NAM at 500 does appear more neutrally tilted, 700 looks like NS energy is tryin to play catchup. 850 is notably more NE but 4mb stronger w/ western precip looking a little better. is it enough....extrapolate at your own will/peril...lol ninja'd by CAPE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z NAM shows a stronger lp at hour 78 compared to 6z and at hour 84 it takes a jog to the NNW and strengthens to 1001. 500's improved a bit also but don't know what to make of that northern stream of energy re timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 We'll know soon if it's just the 84hr nam or if it is the start of some positive vibes today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's the 84 hour NAM. Lets extrapolate that! 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NAM at 500 does appear more neutrally tilted, 700 looks like NS energy is tryin to play catchup. 850 is notably more NE but 4mb stronger w/ western precip looking a little better. is it enough....extrapolate at your own will/peril...lol ninja'd by CAPE.... I mean what else I got to do right now at 10am lol. It’s just nice to see something that looks halfway decent rather than a low down in Cuba. I know it’s the Nam. I’ve been a member of the boards forever guys. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's the 84 hour NAM. Lets extrapolate that! I would think the h500 on the nam should be the same as the gfs. Have to check when the gfs comes out. Anyway, to my eye the 12z nam is showing a lot more NS involvement than the 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, wkd said: I would think the h500 on the nam should be the same as the gfs. Have to check when the gfs comes out. Anyway, to my eye the 12z nam is showing a lot more NS involvement than the 06Z. Not sure i'd say alot more, but yeah, its trying. There IS plenty of time on our side, so verbatim, it is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, wkd said: I would think the h500 on the nam should be the same as the gfs. Have to check when the gfs comes out. Anyway, to my eye the 12z nam is showing a lot more NS involvement than the 06Z. Comparing the 2 runs I would agree there is some improvement at h5. I would not use the NAM (esp out of its useful range) as an indicator for what any of the globals might or might not do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: For what it's worth the 06Z GEFS roughly doubled the coastal scrapper snow signatures from the 00Z run. Anybody got the 0z and 6z for comparison? Chill mentioned that 0z lost all scrapers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure i'd say alot more, but yeah, its trying. There IS plenty of time on our side, so verbatim, it is a step in the right direction. I was basing it in the 552mb contour 12z wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 12z NAM shows a stronger lp at hour 78 compared to 6z and at hour 84 it takes a jog to the NNW and strengthens to 1001. 500's improved a bit also but don't know what to make of that northern stream of energy re timing. I agree that was better look. If that phase was just further west like New Orleans vs. PNS as it shows now then something could get silly.j. On 0z NAM the base of the trough was still positive here its neutral. Get it negative phase and do it in the big easy. Things phase all the time there why not this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Comparing the 2 runs I would agree there is some improvement at h5. I would not use the NAM (esp out of its useful range) as an indicator for what any of the globals might or might not do. Completely agree, though the NAM was the first of the 0z suite to look bad last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, frd said: Of all the indices, I believe the NAO is the toughest and least accurate modeling when it comes to forecasting in general. I would throw the MJO in there as well. It has been all over the place so far this year. Hell basically every model has been all over the place this year. No consistency from anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would throw the MJO in there as well. It has been all over the place so far this year. Hell basically every model has been all over the place this year. No consistency from anything at this point. True , on a related note the SOI has been negative recently . I believe there is a wave push reinforcing that area of warmer waters in the West Pac as Ventrice stated yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Fits persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would throw the MJO in there as well. It has been all over the place so far this year. Hell basically every model has been all over the place this year. No consistency from anything at this point. I'll tell ya what....it sure has been a year for meteorological curveballs... and for a longtime hobbyist who thought he finally had some long range understanding, has me rethinkin what I've been thinkin. then we get the medium/shortrange overpreformers (I got 4" yesterday when 1" was forecasted until last minute change), and I just dunno what to think. another poster made a great point the other day about forecasting vs model watching or something along those lines, and that is a great point. I think Chill and a few others have that ability, and its one many need to refine/acquire....that also includes me at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Completely agree, though the NAM was the first of the 0z suite to look bad last night. Well, it does come out before the globals, so that might be the reason it was first lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Vort alignment looks a lot better on the 12z nam. Still wouldn't get the job done here but a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 44 minutes ago, frd said: You still think your call for a - NAO manifesting itself in Jan is possible? You called for it a couple weeks ago based on the pattern moving forward. Just asking . Last time we had a drop of significance was back in mid Nov. The call is based on 10mb geopotential height propagating to the 500mb level, so the call is more for Greenland ridging/blocking than the actual NAO which is sea level pressure difference in the eastern Atlantic. I do think the NAO will average negative for DJF because of Atlantic SSTs this past May-Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 46 minutes ago, frd said: Of all the indices, I believe the NAO is the toughest and least accurate modeling when it comes to forecasting in general. EPO, NAO has high correlation with space and PNA is Enso connected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I will have to say the GFS and NAM are almost identical through 54. That is a rarity this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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