New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[mitchnick]

.5" touches OC

.1" touches Cambridge,  MD

[MillvilleWx]

Euro was fairly steady from last run, but it did get better qpf shield thrown west into the beaches, but still a long ways away from our neck of the woods. H5 setup is just too little too late to really get anything appreciable back this way. If I lived at the beaches, I would certainly keep a close eye on this one. A big storm for down there is more than 4" since they don't really have plows to get stuff clear. Euro was a nice storm for OCMD and Chincoteague verbatim. I'm honestly not a fan of the setup for back here. Too much has to go right, but you never know. I'm curious to see how the EPS looks as it'll probably have its fair share of coastal scrapers. Looks like my Father in Millville, DE may beat me at another snow event this year. It's uncanny

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro was fairly steady from last run, but it did get better qpf shield thrown west into the beaches, but still a long ways away from our neck of the woods. H5 setup is just too little too late to really get anything appreciable back this way. If I lived at the beaches, I would certainly keep a close eye on this one. A big storm for down there is more than 4" since they don't really have plows to get stuff clear. Euro was a nice storm for OCMD and Chincoteague verbatim. I'm honestly not a fan of the setup for back here. Too much has to go right, but you never know. I'm curious to see how the EPS looks as it'll probably have its fair share of coastal scrapers. Looks like my Father in Millville, DE may beat me at another snow event this year. It's uncanny

I mean, it's close. Small changes can get amplified once the storm really gets going. Even if we can get the low to develop 50 miles further West, or the storm phases 6-12 hours earlier. 

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

.5" touches OC

.1" touches Cambridge,  MD

If there was ever a good excuse to have a client meeting at Dogfish Head Ale House in DE this week....

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

.5" touches OC

.1" touches Cambridge,  MD

By comparison,  12z run had the .1" line in West OC.

[Cobalt]

D9 also might be worth a watch. Been a pretty consistent feature. Hopefully the storm follows the others and isn't as amped, and then we might get snow. Way too far out though

[Cobalt]

So close!

[Cobalt]

EPS is about the same. Maybe a touch East. 10/50 members get snow into DC. That's tough, but not impossible. Seeing that the majority of models trended East, I'm the glad the Euro stood it's ground. We need the trend to come back for 6z and then 12z. Nothing else will do, since we're slowly running out of time. A phase 6 or 12 hours earlier would make all the difference. It's gonna be hard to get snowfall here, but I think it can be done. Anyways, I'm going to sleep. Hopefully this thing trends in our favor in the next 24 hours. Hopefully. 

[Roger Smith]

This is such a unique pattern that models will perhaps have less by way of trusted algorithms built into solutions.

As several have noted, the eventual participation of the third energy center (looks weak but its track may be more significant than its intensity) moving through my part of the world into the  north-central plains by early Jan 2nd holds the key, if it captures some of the energy of the polar low further east, then it may rapidly energize the shallow trough and sharpen it up before the Florida low has time to sneak off towards Cape Cod. 

I don't really suppose that anything we've seen from any model is more than a vague suggestion of what's actually about to happen with this massive energy peak developing. 

It is by no means certain that you will get a decent snowfall and still rather unlikely that it will be major, but 2 to 5 inches might be the over/under territory for this with the higher amounts trailing off slower than the smaller amounts, so an asymmetric probability function. 

Increasing signs of blocking over Europe on tonight's runs too. That may encourage the high near Newfoundland to dig in and perhaps push back a bit more than currently depicted. 

Bottom line is, the incoming energy from Pacific is weak but that can work in your favor because weak may mean unable to push much cold air out of the way and instead it has to drop south to friendlier confines of Colorado and Oklahoma. Some of the models seem to collapse the arctic air masses in central Canada very quickly and I don't see that happening with heights not building much and so much snow on the ground in BC and Alberta. 

[MDstorm]

Exactly as we dreamed it...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

in our worst nightmare.  All of that precip to our north and east kind of looks like the Grinch. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

06z GFS came in about the same as previous run, just a bit faster, same general track. The initial low is going to end up being over Cuba at some point the way that's drifting further southwest all the time (comparing points of origin). 

We are not that close to a make or break deadline, would say 12z Monday is probably the last hurrah. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

06z GFS came in about the same as previous run, just a bit faster, same general track. The initial low is going to end up being over Cuba at some point the way that's drifting further southwest all the time (comparing points of origin). 

We are not that close to a make or break deadline, would say 12z Monday is probably the last hurrah. 

but ticked further east...which is putting more nails into the coffin and the hole is dug already.

[Ralph Wiggum]

0Z NAVGEM and now the 6Z NAVGEM in subsequent runs have continued to come nearer the coast. Actually appears the NAVGEM (recall our most progressive model bias) is now the farthest West of all op solutions. Still a grazing (read:miss) but interesting:

[Ralph Wiggum]

56 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

but ticked further east...which is putting more nails into the coffin and the hole is dug already.

Probably will have a funeral for this tomorrow afternoon but until the energy comes onshore dont freeze the corpse just yet. This year you never know.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

EPS is about the same. Maybe a touch East. 10/50 members get snow into DC. That's tough, but not impossible. Seeing that the majority of models trended East, I'm the glad the Euro stood it's ground. We need the trend to come back for 6z and then 12z. Nothing else will do, since we're slowly running out of time. A phase 6 or 12 hours earlier would make all the difference. It's gonna be hard to get snowfall here, but I think it can be done. Anyways, I'm going to sleep. Hopefully this thing trends in our favor in the next 24 hours. Hopefully. 

It's not as good as 12z, which wasn't great. It ticked east. The low clustering is tighter, with fewer on the western fringes. To me it looks like a step towards consensus of a well offshore track with zero impact on our region.

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

06z GFS came in about the same as previous run, just a bit faster, same general track. The initial low is going to end up being over Cuba at some point the way that's drifting further southwest all the time (comparing points of origin). 

We are not that close to a make or break deadline, would say 12z Monday is probably the last hurrah. 

I agree with this but I think we will start to know the final outcome after the 00z runs tonight. My gut tells me the Euro ticks east at 12z today but we'll see.

[showmethesnow]

Call me the eternal optimist who sees everything as a half glass full situation. Or just call me the super weenie that is grasping at straws. But I think the Thursday storm isn't close to being settled at this point and barring any major changes in the general overall setup we may not have a full grasp of what we have until 24-48 hrs out. Though the odds are somewhat long I don't think they are as bad as some may think and as long as we have these 3 players (shown below) I think we are still very much in the game.

Now at this point I have been focusing on the op runs because of their finer resolution to pick up the smaller details of which I think will make or break this for us. The ensembles on the other hand, with their lower resolution, are of somewhat limited utility in this situation IMO and will probably be a step behind the ops. Now I believe there is one feature that is key in this whole setup that will make or break us and below I am using the 00Z and the 06Z GFS to show this (Euro is very similar but used the GFS because of better clarity on the features).

-----------------------------------------------

What we have on the 00Z run is energy in the northern gulf (A), north stream energy diving into it (B) and and trailing NS energy (C) on the heals of B. Now what I want you to notice is the fact that C is right on top of B as B is making it's move to phase with A. What is occurring is that C is disrupting the phase of (A+B) and what we are getting is a half assed partial phase. Then we see C phasing with the leftover energy from the A+B phase. So what we end up with is two separate crappy phases when in fact we need to see at least a clean full phase of A+B for any chances for our region. Throw in a phase of C into the the clean whole phase of (A+B) and our chances increase quite a bit (would come down to the timing of these phases at that point). One other thing to note. Notice the axis tilt (postive) and depth of the southern energy from what is essentially an ongoing crappy phasing of A and B and then compare that to the following map that has better phasing ongoing.

 

 

Now this is the 06Z map. Same features as above with A (SS energy), B (NS energy) and C (Trailing NS energy). Now notice C in relationship to B. There is greater separation then the previous example. So what we are seeing is less interference from C to the A+B phase. This better phasing can be observed by the response of the SS energy as we seen it drawn north from the previous example and we now see a neutral tilt with the southern portion of the trough. But C is still a disrupting influence and we see the same outcome as before with a partial sloppy A+B phase and a followup phasing of C into the leftover energy from B.

 

 

If you haven't guessed by now, C may very well be the deciding factor when all is said in done. If we can see enough separation between C and B to allow a clean whole phase of A and B then it is probably game on. With C basically following in the footsteps of B the chances of it then phasing with the resulting A+B phase are fairly high. At that point it becomes a matter of when these phases actually occur (the sooner the better). Now C is going to be a hard feature for the models to nail down because it is just zipping down from the north. This may very well be a feature they don't have a good handle on until almost game time (hence my 24-48 hour before we have a good idea). These features and the intricacies/interplay between them are also of finer detail (hence my preference of the higher resolution Op runs over the ensembles). 

All in all, though the odds are pretty low I still think we are still very much in the game. And I will keep playing until the Fat Lady sings.

 

 

[Wonderdog]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Call me the eternal optimist who sees everything as a half glass full situation. Or just call me the super weenie that is grasping at straws. But I think the Thursday storm isn't close to being settled at this point and barring any major changes in the general overall setup we may not have a full grasp of what we have until 24-48 hrs out. Though the odds are somewhat long I don't think they are as bad as some may think and as long as we have these 3 players (shown below) I think we are still very much in the game.

Now at this point I have been focusing on the op runs because of their finer resolution to pick up the smaller details of which I think will make or break this for us. The ensembles on the other hand, with their lower resolution, are of somewhat limited utility in this situation IMO and will probably be a step behind the ops. Now I believe there is one feature that is key in this whole setup that will make or break us and below I am using the 00Z and the 06Z GFS to show this (Euro is very similar but used the GFS because of better clarity on the features).

-----------------------------------------------

What we have on the 00Z run is energy in the northern gulf (A), north stream energy diving into it (B) and and trailing NS energy (C) on the heals of B. Now what I want you to notice is the fact that C is right on top of B as B is making it's move to phase with A. What is occurring is that C is disrupting the phase of (A+B) and what we are getting is a half assed partial phase. Then we see C phasing with the leftover energy from the A+B phase. So what we end up with is two separate crappy phases when in fact we need to see at least a clean full phase of A+B for any chances for our region. Throw in a phase of C into the the clean whole phase of (A+B) and our chances increase quite a bit (would come down to the timing of these phases at that point). One other thing to note. Notice the axis tilt (postive) and depth of the southern energy from what is essentially an ongoing crappy phasing of A and B and then compare that to the following map that has better phasing ongoing.

 

 

Now this is the 06Z map. Same features as above with A (SS energy), B (NS energy) and C (Trailing NS energy). Now notice C in relationship to B. There is greater separation then the previous example. So what we are seeing is less interference from C to the A+B phase. This better phasing can be observed by the response of the SS energy as we seen it drawn north from the previous example and we now see a neutral tilt with the southern portion of the trough. But C is still a disrupting influence and we see the same outcome as before with a partial sloppy A+B phase and a followup phasing of C into the leftover energy from B.

 

 

If you haven't guessed by now, C may very well be the deciding factor when all is said in done. If we can see enough separation between C and B to allow a clean whole phase of A and B then it is probably game on. With C basically following in the footsteps of B the chances of it then phasing with the resulting A+B phase are fairly high. At that point it becomes a matter of when these phases actually occur (the sooner the better). Now C is going to be a hard feature for the models to nail down because it is just zipping down from the north. This may very well be a feature they don't have a good handle on until almost game time (hence my 24-48 hour before we have a good idea). These features and the intricacies/interplay between them are also of finer detail (hence my preference of the higher resolution Op runs over the ensembles). 

All in all, though the odds are pretty low I still think we are still very much in the game. And I will keep playing until the Fat Lady sings.

 

 

Nice write- up Showme for all of us glass half-full optimists. Now what if we got Jebman to take a Jebwalk right into the teeth of the trailing stream (C) to totally disrupt it, thereby insuring a clean phase of A and B? Do you think that would work? Just kidding of course and I do like your write-up.

[CAPE]

@showmethesnow thanks for the write up. Nice effort as always. I agree it is a convoluted enough setup to stay interested. Its one of those deals where you can see that with a few subtle changes in position and timing between those features, we could end up with a favorable outcome. On the other side of the coin, these complicated evolutions so rarely work out here, and I would have liked to have seen better trends from the 0z suite. Looking at the guidance as a whole, there was at least a slight step in the wrong direction. Unless I see some clear improvements by 0z, I think I will be making plans to head westward this week.

[showmethesnow]

For what it's worth the 06Z GEFS roughly doubled the coastal scrapper snow signatures from the 00Z run.

[aldie 22]

I think part of the fun is having enough time before a potential miss event is to see if it can work it's way here. This one was intriguing for a minute but time spent on this board over the years tells me we know what this thing is going to do. No harm in watching and hoping though hopefully nobody is devastated when it misses...if it does ;).... FYI I stopped reading and looking at what happens up north a few years ago...it has done wonders

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

For what it's worth the 06Z GEFS roughly doubled the coastal scrapper snow signatures from the 00Z run.

parsing through the overnights, I also think it may not be done, but odds decrease somewhat to me.  Yeah we need the quicker phase and that northern energy to slow down, but as many have stated we just need too much to go right and the persistence of this pattern argues against it.  Navgem and Euro say hold the nails (coffin), but I'd like a few others in my camp if i were leading the battle on this one...

I really do hope you can bring this one home for some of us.  

[Chris78]

@showme. Great write up as usual. Always appreciate your optimism. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

parsing through the overnights, I also think it may not be done, but odds decrease somewhat to me.  Yeah we need the quicker phase and that northern energy to slow down, but as many have stated we just need too much to go right and the persistence of this pattern argues against it.  Navgem and Euro say hold the nails (coffin), but I'd like a few others in my camp if i were leading the battle on this one...

I really do hope you can bring this one home for some of us.  

Yeah, we don't do complicated well down here. I will say it is less complicated then the setup/evolution they were spitting out several days ago when they were showing the storm. So we do have that going for us. But again, complicated normally equals No Snow for us. But I enjoy tracking so I will go down with the ship once again if need be. Anything to keep the Reaper off my a**.

Thought I would add, don't think there will be any in between with this. We either see no snow or we hit a home run. The setup pretty much argues that.

[mitchnick]

Much better look to the Canadian at 84 hrs off the 6z run. It stops at 84hrs. Comparing it to the 90 hrs off the 0z run and it's more impressive. Surface low is deeper too, 1002 vs. 1006.

 

[osfan24]

Obviously still more unlikely than likely and the runs last night stopped our positive vibes, but I'm far from throwing in the towel yet. If I'm looking at models on Tuesday and seeing the same thing, then I'll reassess.

[RDM]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, we don't do complicated well down here. I will say it is less complicated then the setup/evolution they were spitting out several days ago when they were showing the storm. So we do have that going for us. But again, complicated normally equals No Snow for us. But I enjoy tracking so I will go down with the ship once again if need be. Anything to keep the Reaper off my a**.

Thought I would add, don't think there will be any in between with this. We either see no snow or we hit a home run. The setup pretty much argues that.

Given the baseball analogies used with this one, I'm afraid this is going to be like trying to hit a Phil Niekro knuckleball. on which he based a stellar career.    "It's coming, we know the pitch will be slow as molasses, we just have to be patient, here it comes, we know it's going to sink at the last minute, but we're ready for that, the pitch, here it comes, we've got it, we've got it, wait for it, wait.....  swing!  missed the GD thing again!!!  and we were so ready.... as we head back to the dugout holding our heads in disbelief"  

[osfan24]

Navgem is way west. Gets precip onto western shore of bay. That would seem like a big red flag, but it is all on its own.

[North Balti Zen]

By the way, I know we all like to gang up on long range modeling, but I tend to view log range modeling as windows into possibilities. And I am certain that the ensembles about a week before Christmas in the long range had a set that were a big blue blob of polar cold way far south. And the group that had that was dry. I know PSU and a few others noted that we don’t want that much cold that far south optimally- and that has proved out so far (chill and others noting that WAR could help if so...but WAR has been overwhelmed as it played out). The alternate reality where the ensemble members a few weeks back that were wet and cold is an awesome alternate dimension. 

In other words, the long range modeling definitely showed the possibld outcome we are seeing at present. So, props to the modeling for that.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep..definitely sharper when comparing to 6z gfs ..baby steps 

Yeah, that does look better.  Didnt catch that.  Lets hope we can get the trough more neg. so this puppy can climb and tuck back west.

We've all spent a lot of time searching for the storms in the last couple weeks as the advertised pattern looked promising, (but in truth, of late I've been laxed as the pattern just screamed suppression) and has been challenging for sure.  I love the cold so Im not complaining, but it would be nice to put a storm or 2 on the boards.  

Here's to hoping.