Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: That is not the point being made here, the point is not to go into a panic if the models trend unfavorably with with tonight's 00z runs. I would still wait until Monday before calling this game on or game off. More than a handful here won't call it off until the storm is north of 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'll guarantee you guys a 1/4-1/5 Snow event but you must name it the DCAlexandria Super Weenie Fun Storm...Deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: I'll guarantee you guys a 1/4-1/5 Snow event but you must name it the DCAlexandria Super Weenie Fun Storm...Deal? Deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: That is not the point being made here, the point is not to go into a panic if the models trend unfavorably with with tonight's 00z runs. I would still wait until Monday before calling this game on or game off. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The two vorts are more separated so far at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The trailing shortwave is weaker. It came on shore weaker near AK and that was very early in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The trailing shortwave is weaker. It came on shore weaker near AK and that was very early in the run. I know a cliche question, but what would this mean down the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I know a cliche question, but what would this mean down the line? It's likely not going to help. That piece helps turn the trough neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Looks like the GGEM took a step back. Grazes the coast near us, but less so than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, George BM said: Yeah, looks very similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Me after the 0z model suite https://imgur.com/1eMZYHW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Precip is a touch East a hr 96 not terrible shift East, but you can tell the differences. I'll throw out this run if the GEFS has more members West, but it certainly isn't the best run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Yea, we need that trailing piece to dig as much as possible and help back flow. No dice with north American models. Hopefully Europe pulls through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Storm formed farther West, but ended up further East.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we need that trailing piece to dig as much as possible and help back flow. No dice with north American models. Hopefully Europe pulls through Everytime we need that good trend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I’d rather be let go of this threat now then get teased all the way to the end. I’m sure everyone else feels the same. It was a pretty long shot to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The bad thing with the gfs and cmc is they are both weaker with the trailing shortwave and it starts way at the beginning of the runs. If that piece really is weak like that and digs less then this one is over for us and maybe sne too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, we need that trailing piece to dig as much as possible and help back flow. No dice with north American models. Hopefully Europe pulls through Anything will do! European, Canadian, German, Japanese, Panasonician, Crasian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The bad thing with the gfs and cmc is they are both weaker with the trailing shortwave and it starts way at the beginning of the runs. If that piece really is weak like that and digs less then this one is over for us and maybe sne too. That would actually work for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 From what I've heard, Ukie is further East too. Lock this up, it seems like the trend wasn't in our favor, unless this is all just noise, which it most likely isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Everytime we need that good trend...... This was the most impossible thread the needle storm. I mean it closest reference was from 1922 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: From what I've heard, Ukie is further East too. Lock this up, it seems like the trend wasn't in our favor, unless this is all just noise, which it most likely isn't. The UKIE doesn't come out for another 45 min??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The bad thing with the gfs and cmc is they are both weaker with the trailing shortwave and it starts way at the beginning of the runs. If that piece really is weak like that and digs less then this one is over for us and maybe sne too. Yep. Funny how the models must all be making the same assumptions on the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Storm formed farther West, but ended up further East.. It's not where the southern storm forms. It's the axis of the trough and that trailing piece is an imortant part to get the trough neutral faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: The UKIE doesn't come out for another 45 min??? Really? I guess the Southeast forum isn't as trustworthy after all. Either way, this storm is still on major life support. Unless the ensembles show a Westward trend, or the Euro comes in and saves the day along with maybe the Ukie, it's getting more and more far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Yep. Funny how the models must all be making the same assumptions on the features. IIRC, models share a lot of data at initialization so if they all do the same thing for the same reason it's obvious that accuracy has caught up with us. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Really? I guess the Southeast forum isn't as trustworthy after all. Either way, this storm is still on major life support. Unless the ensembles show a Westward trend, or the Euro comes in and saves the day along with maybe the Ukie, it's getting more and more far fetched. I'd love to know where they are seeing the UKMET. Meteocentre doesn't have it yet and they are usually the first to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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