AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 What are odds a 965mb low stays out to sea? It's the 2000s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Not the specific page I was looking for but a pretty good one for 1/25/2000. Good to refresh our memories for those of us around for it http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z Ukie buzz is starting to fade. I need an uplifting extrapolated NAM post from Mitch. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What are odds a 965mb low stays out to sea? It's the 2000s Any way I can get back to you on Friday on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: I’ve heard that before. Pretty sure that is at 500mb or something. It does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. It's not just at 500mb. You can check a bunch of verification stats. E.g. here's how the different models compare for sea-level pressure over North America in the past month. The Ukie is a clear #2 behind the Euro, which is typical. I can't speak to how it will do in this particular setup, but earlier this month it did well on the December 9th storm. That's the one that surprised a lot of us, but in retrospect it probably wouldn't have been so surprising if we'd been paying more attention to the Ukie. Of course it could be way off. The ensembles seem to be telling us that the potential for snow is there if everything lines up just right. There's a good chance that everything just happened to line up right for the 12z Ukie run, and lightning won't strike twice at 00z. But one of the things I like about the Ukie is that it often does its own thing, which can make it a useful addition to the ensemble of globals. All of today's global model runs are going to be wrong, but the Ukie makes me think that for the upcoming sytem the other models are more likely to be too far east than too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: You wan't an even more brutal map? I am so terribly sorry.. I am used to ignoring DT first, second, third, final, and double-final calls. That other map was verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just noting differences...Nam is a bit stronger than 18z with our lead s/w as it drops out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 29 minutes ago, Negnao said: Here you go Ah. The biggest screwjob in Mid Atlantic forum history. In reality that is probably pretty similar to what we will see with the next storm. You guys to the east still have a shot at some precip I guess. But when I see a LP over the lakes I know the writing is on the wall for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I see your point, but even Boxing Day did not have a razor edge cutoff. There were places that got a few inches on the western flank like Easton and Queenstown and not too many miles east in Dover doubled those totals. They may not be the best examples, but I can't locate an accumulation map for that debacle. Thats about right. I think it was 2-3" right along the bay. I had about 5" imby, and not too far east in DE there was 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Ah. The biggest screwjob in Mid Atlantic forum history. In reality that is probably pretty similar to what we will see with the next storm. You guys to the east still have a shot at some precip I guess. But when I see a LP over the lakes I know the writing is on the wall for my area. The low over the lakes is probably a good thing in this case. It creates weakness for a storm to track further west. Lakes lows are our enemies with needing east tracks. We WANT a west track. Lol. Another thing they can do is screw up the mid levels with return flow. No worries on this one at all. If it precipitates it will be snow. And if it sleet for rains it's because we're getting totally nuked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The low over the lakes is probably a good thing in this case. It creates weakness for a storm to track further west. Lakes lows are our enemies with needing east tracks. We WANT a west track. Lol. Another thing they can do is screw up the mid levels with return flow. No worries on this one at all. If it precipitates it will be snow. And if it sleet for rains it's because we're getting totally nuked. I am talking more specifically about out here. Depending if and where they phase it wont be in time to help me regardless. My best chance at precip will be from a streamer the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am talking more specifically about out here. Depending if and where they phase it wont be in time to help me regardless. My best chance at precip will be from a streamer the next day. Gotchya. Well, just know that I'm rooting hard that you get a foot....cuz if you do then my yard has a mushroom cloud over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 March 2001 was worse than Boxing Day though it became pretty clear when it was 60 degrees the day before that the computer models done fooked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Nam seems to be missing a piece this run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Well the Nam didnt start the 00z trend off to a good start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The real kick in the gut comes when the cold moves out in time for a real precip event. We could have 2 straight weeks of great temps with less than a tenth of precip but then get 1" qpf right after we lose the column. Bob, so true. Spoken like a true veteran of the area. That happens so much—yet it’s underrated in the let down categories. Swing and a miss, 33 degree rain, clippers passing just north. None of those rank up with 14 days of 19-28 degrees-no precip. And the 15th day brings a low pressure system from the gulf and we are 35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Nam seems to send the northern stream energy to the east as part of the GL low. That does nothing for anyone along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Good thing is, it's the NAM and not something like the GFS within hr 84. If the GFS follows the NAM, it may be time to panic a tad bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Good thing is, it's the NAM and not something like the GFS within hr 84. If the GFS follows the NAM, it may be time to panic a tad bit. We need to see improvements at 0z. Taking steps back will likely mean game is close to being a wrap. We can get there but we need some things to work in our favor as lead time shortens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Sort of feel like the 0z runs will let us go peacefully. Not just the NAM but this whole set up is just a bridge to far. And Cobalt needs 40 winks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Good thing is, it's the NAM and not something like the GFS within hr 84. If the GFS follows the NAM, it may be time to panic a tad bit. Panic? Not like we ever appeared to be in the game in the first place, so...if things trend back east tonight, it ain't like we shoulda been expecting anything in the first place, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Sort of feel like the 0z runs will let us go peacefully. Not just the NAM but this whole set up is just a bridge to far. And Cobalt needs 40 winks. Like I said earlier, we need the trend to continue. If it stops or reverses, then panic or accept it's ova'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Panic? Not like we ever appeared to be in the game in the first place, so...if things trend back east tonight, it ain't like we shoulda been expecting anything in the first place, lol If it wasn't for that damn Ukie run we'd be getting some shut eye. Now we have to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Something you may want to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Something you may want to keep in mind. If I was in NY, NJ or Eastern PA this would apply. They are much closer to a favorable solution. We need a 200 mile shift..they need 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Good thing is, it's the NAM and not something like the GFS within hr 84. If the GFS follows the NAM, it may be time to panic a tad bit. Panic? Over what? A storm that was never really in play for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Something you may want to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 seems like the southern piece is slower than last run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Ji said: seems like the southern piece is slower than last run though On the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: If I was in NY, NJ or Eastern PA this would apply. They are much closer to a favorable solution. We need a 200 mile shift..they need 50. That is not the point being made here, the point is not to go into a panic if the models trend unfavorably with with tonight's 00z runs. I would still wait until Monday before calling this game on or game off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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