Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: There is certainly middle ground between a blizzard and nothing, and that's what I'm talking about. as Bob said and maybe i am misquoting him but its gonna be all or nothing. We either get nothing or we get the Ukmet. I dont see a scraping scenario for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: When is the last time we backed our way from a snow solution to a rain solution 3-4 days out? West trends can completely happen. The thing is, it's completely unreasonable to expect a heavy snowfall. If anything, our closest to best case scenario would be hoping to get on the good side of the snowfall gradient. Best case scenario would be the Ukie, but that's really far fetched. I agree with you that many times we have seen a storm trend from sliding underneath us to going through Ohio in the last 96 hours. That does give me slight hope. I've never seen a storm trend back 400 miles off the ocean though to clobber us in the last 120 hours. I Hope I see it for the first time. Would be a huge moral boost for all of us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ji said: as Bob said and maybe i am misquoting him but its gonna be all or nothing. We either get nothing or we get the Ukmet. I dont see a scraping scenario for us I don't agree with that and I'll let Bob speak for himself on that. But it is entirely possible for the system to get drawn west far enough for the precip shield to give us a glancing blow by phasing a little later than the Ukie or not developing as fast as the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: I don't agree with that and I'll let Bob speak for himself on tgat. But it is entirely possible for the system to get drawn west far enough for the precip shield to give us a glancing blow by phasing a little later than the Ukie or not developing as fast as the Ukie. i dunno know man...if it gets close enough to give us snow....that means it made a dramatic change and its probably gonna be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 33 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? It's the 2nd best model behind the Euro in the model standings For me— it’s sort of like the Caps in the playoffs. It’s great during the regular season, but folds like a cheap tent during an Ian Livingston EF0 on the mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i dunno know man...if it gets close enough to give us snow....that means it made a dramatic change and its probably gonna be big Keep in mind that the storm hasn't changed one bit. It hasn't even formed. It's the models that have changed. And all that change simply represents is model error. So in light of the error the models have already proven they are capable of making, additional error in the same amount is possible, if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 35 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’ve heard that before. Pretty sure that is at 500mb or something. It does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. how many times have seen a 985 low at VA capes at 12z from Ukment and then next run its a 1012 low off Jacksonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just had a chance to glance over the 18Z op run of the GFS. As some already know I am not a big fan of the off runs of the GFS but I will say this. It was a razors edge from a big solution. The first NS energy diving down into the SS energy doesn't fully phase. This is leaving some energy behind where a secondary piece of NS energy riding on the coattails of the first dives into that instead of the partially phased SS energy. If we would have seen a clean full phase of the first NS energy and SS energy we would have then seen a phase of that and the follow up NS energy instead. This would have most likely resulted in a big solution for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 jan 2000 makes me think any storm is possible. it wasn't just a surprise and poorly modeled system, but the way it just shot almost due north from the carolinas was unusual as well. that obviously had a serious negative tilt, but who knows what could happen. even the type of snow was kind of cool...it was like a pixie dust blizzard. tons of small flakes that piled because of temps in the 20s, which probably was a result of the precip being almost entirely off the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 39 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’ve heard that before. Pretty sure that is at 500mb or something. It does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. It nailed the sleet storm last year. We all toss it becuase other models agreed on a colder solution. Ukie was pushing the 850 line all the way to Frederick. All alone and dead on. It was under 48 hour leads so not apples to apples at all. Ukie seems pretty good with tropical too. What we need tonight is the euro/ukie to both show a storm tonight. That would be a big deal. No op is good with complicated setups 4+ days out Fairly large swings are expected. I'm pretty much 100% sure the 0z ukie will move east and/or have a later phase. I hope everyone bump trolls this post when it holds too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Apparently "Deep Thunder" is trending West too. It's over folks. East trend starts now. Bermuda sees it's first and only snowstorm Just kidding, but this "Deep Thunder" model was tested in last week's event and was one of the last models to now have a suppressed solution. Different setups though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 46 minutes ago, Ji said: as Bob said and maybe i am misquoting him but its gonna be all or nothing. We either get nothing or we get the Ukmet. I dont see a scraping scenario for us It's possible to get scraped but nothing has ever shown that. Even the longer lead teases on the euro were good hits. The track is what makes it hard to get a scrape. Low is coming north from Florida without a banana high or -nao so the two most likely outcomes imho are a phase/good hit or no phase and flurries or light accum on the delmarva. Without a good phase there is no mechanism to push precip west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This is a good visual to go along with my previous post. 18z gefs has a couple phases that get up pretty good near the cities but look to the west. Brutal cutoff. Same with the unphased soltuions. Brutal cutoff there but all over the ocean. Strong storms can have tight shields to the west of the center when there is no upper level support mechanism to expand the shield. Look at the nearly due N-S orientation of all the misses. A scrape without a phase will require the low center to track really close to the coast. Almost all of our big events have upper level support and precip pushes 100s of miles west of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 People keep on bringing up 1/25/00, and it really is the most apt comparison after looking over chart after chart in our snowstorm history. Just as 1/16 was a sibling storm to 1/96, we’d need a sibling storm to 1/00 for a surface low starting *east* of FL to impact us. A tucked in negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's possible to get scraped but nothing has ever shown that. Even the longer lead teases on the euro were good hits. The track is what makes it hard to get a scrape. Low is coming north from Florida without a banana high or -nao so the two most likely outcomes imho are a phase/good hit or no phase and flurries or light accum on the delmarva. Without a good phase there is no mechanism to push precip west. I see your point, but even Boxing Day did not have a razor edge cutoff. There were places that got a few inches on the western flank like Easton and Queenstown and not too many miles east in Dover doubled those totals. They may not be the best examples, but I can't locate an accumulation map for that debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I see your point, but even Boxing Day did not have a razor edge cutoff. There were places that got a few inches on the western flank like Easton and Queenstown and not too many miles east in Dover doubled those totals. They may not be the best examples, but I can't locate an accumulation map for that debacle. Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I thought Tony Pann hated snow? I seem to recall him sh*tting all over many previous potential storms. Did his management tell him he needed to capture some of the social media snow weenie market that has gone over to Justin Berk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 What a brutal map. Please never post that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 31 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Apparently "Deep Thunder" is trending West too. It's over folks. East trend starts now. Bermuda sees it's first and only snowstorm Just kidding, but this "Deep Thunder" model was tested in last week's event and was one of the last models to now have a suppressed solution. Different setups though. "Deep Thunder" and people wonder why no one trust meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I see your point, but even Boxing Day did not have a razor edge cutoff. There were places that got a few inches on the western flank like Easton and Queenstown and not too many miles east in Dover doubled those totals. They may not be the best examples, but I can't locate an accumulation map for that debacle. The thing about boxing day is there was a northern stream vort that dumped precip to the south and southwest of us that fizzled out as it did the handoff off the coast. It had a lot more juice with it but the dynamics perfectly skipped over us. Atlanta got snow and many places in NC got 6-12". Even RIC got 6". We got stuck in no man's land in between everything...and oh god it sucked... Gym is spot on. A storm that forms east of FL almost never gives us snow. We need to root for a Jan 00 redux as far as the synoptic progression goes. It's happened before... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Here you go Thanks. That does show what I'm talking about. It's a shame that the categories are so broad i.e. 1-4", 4-10", & 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: What a brutal map. Please never post that again. You wan't an even more brutal map? I am so terribly sorry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The thing about boxing day is there was a northern stream vort that dumped precip to the south and southwest of us that fizzled out as it did the handoff off the coast. It had a lot more juice with it but the dynamics perfectly skipped over us. Atlanta got snow and many places in NC got 6-12". Even RIC got 6". We got stuck in no man's land in between everything...and oh got it sucked... Gym is spot on. A storm that forms east of FL almost never gives us snow. We need to root for a Jan 00 redux as far as the synoptic progression goes. It's happened before... . She's a long shot for sure Clark, but I'm going for her! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is a good visual to go along with my previous post. 18z gefs has a couple phases that get up pretty good near the cities but look to the west. Brutal cutoff. Same with the unphased soltuions. Brutal cutoff there but all over the ocean. Strong storms can have tight shields to the west of the center when there is no upper level support mechanism to expand the shield. Look at the nearly due N-S orientation of all the misses. A scrape without a phase will require the low center to track really close to the coast. Almost all of our big events have upper level support and precip pushes 100s of miles west of the center. The only thing, though, with the modeling for this particular storm is the huge precip footprint on all models. So if you translate the low left, it does offer the chance of a scrape. As you know though, the leftward translation is *not* what the Ukie showed, especially with its bonkers precip surge NW’ward into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: That image should be banned from this subforum. Nah, keep it up. The troops need to be toughened for the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing about boxing day is there was a northern stream vort that dumped precip to the south and southwest of us that fizzled out as it did the handoff off the coast. It had a lot more juice with it but the dynamics perfectly skipped over us. Atlanta got snow and many places in NC got 6-12". Even RIC got 6". We got stuck in no man's land in between everything...and oh god it sucked... Gym is spot on. A storm that forms east of FL almost never gives us snow. We need to root for a Jan 00 redux as far as the synoptic progression goes. It's happened before... . What is the possibility the low forms 50-100 miles West of what is depicted? I'm sure that would make all the difference in the world, but it's more likely that the Jan 00 redux happepns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Cobalt, stop going out of your way to find every single post, tweet, blog, hallmark card, MySpace page that somehow mentions snow for here. Some of this stuff is so ridiculous because wishcasting is rampant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Someone post a January 25, 2000 snow map stat to purge that Boxing Day snow map from our memories forever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: Cobalt, stop going out of your way to find every single post, tweet, blog, hallmark card, MySpace page that somehow mentions snow for here. Some of this stuff is so ridiculous because wishcasting is rampant. I was pointing out how the "Deep Thunder" model Tony Pann keeps on showing is most likely wrong. It was tested for today's storm, and failed. Nowhere did I commend the model. However, the Westward trend is happening, but I see. I will refrain from posting twitter/facebook posts, since I'm fairly sure most people know where to find them. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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