New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Ger]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I guess there's a bright side to this mess...usually the most painful winter periods where we get no snow usually include areas within a 3 hour drive getting something decent. That's not the case right now. Nobody for 1,500 miles of coastline has anything exciting to track so there's that at least 

Yeah, always easier when the PHL and NYC weenies go down with us. Makes things much more bearable. BOS's climo is so different, and it is so much further NE, that I tend not to care what happens up there.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This year is on the volatile side for sure. Progressive flow is the biggest issue. Shortwaves can cover 1k miles every 24 hours. Lots of room for extrapolated errors in that environment. 

Unfortunately the eps is not alone with limited precip chances over the next 10 days. Everything seems to finally agree on that. Can never rule out a fluke. It's not a good sign that all 50 euro ens members show barely a trace after this weekend over the next 10 days. 3 out of 50 show a tenth. Lol. I don't think I've seen any run this dry before. 

 

 

Given the gfs propensity to be too liberal with qpf I find the most recent gefs to be just as dry. Pretty much everything agrees we are dry through day 10. Then everything agrees whatever comes will be a cutter. That part is obviously highly suspect given the range and accuracy this year but there is nothing based on evidence that's good. We would have to just make stuff up or hope. But dry through.day 10 seems very likely. I'm a bit shocked. We're already 5 days into a dry stretch. Another 10...seems we did get an extreme event. An extreme dry event. I'll admit I felt something would come along. Not a big storm but something if we had a 2 week cold stretch. I now think we are likely going to waste the entire period with the exception of some scraps tonight. 

[osfan24]

It's funny how going into this, it was thought it would take a miracle not to get some significant snow out of this. Whoops.

[PhineasC]

I'm sure somehow Worcester, MA is under a warning for 8-10. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, osfan24 said:

It's funny how going into this, it was thought it would take a miracle not to get some significant snow out of this. Whoops.

At least that was a flash in the pan. The STJ connection lasted all but 3 days on guidance and never got into confidence range. Once that broke down the runs have been dry for the last week at least. But dry and desert are 2 different things. My guess is we do get some sort of precip event over the next 10 days. Just an odds guess though. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I guess there's a bright side to this mess...usually the most painful winter periods where we get no snow usually include areas within a 3 hour drive getting something decent. That's not the case right now. Nobody for 1,500 miles of coastline has anything exciting to track so there's that at least 

I do take some solace in that but for selfish reasons. Someone I can't stand and am in a personal grudge match with had been calling for an epic snowy pattern. So was I a week ago but the difference is I readily admit when im wrong and bust and I was wrong. Im glad it's not snowing anywhere because it leaves no room for him to spin and try to claim victory. He has to admit busting too. 

[pasnownut]

59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It's ugly. Really really ugly. Bone dry through day 10. Not even any outliers every single member is dry. Then day 10-15 lost the signal for a wave running the boundary under us and instead has almost unanimous support for a cutter. Something that runs from Texas to Ohio. For as cold of a run as it was it was as amazingly bad for snow chances as possible. 

That cutter is probably our best chance. I say that tongue in cheek yet somewhat seriously as well. The perfect track systems in the LR are are getting suppressed or squashed S and E. This might be a year where a LR cutter trends more suppressed and into a favorable spot as the pattern relaxes and the boundary shift North some.

Im not sure how you get a cutter to cut in this pattern.  If we get relaxation and WAR can help, then IMO something may pop in between.  

But to your point, a modeled cutter inside 4 to 5 days could end up bellying under like every other storm has been doing.  I would be rather suspicious if a model showed such an event while all other indicies remain as current.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Im not sure how you get a cutter to cut in this pattern.  If we get relaxation and WAR can help, then IMO something may pop in between.  

But to your point, a modeled cutter inside 4 to 5 days could end up bellying under like every other storm has been doing.  I would be rather suspicious if a model showed such an event while all other indicies remain as current.

 

Doesn't look like a "warm" cutter but waa out in front of a western trough could easily drag mid level warmth further north than we want. Pattern is progressive. We could lose an arctic high in less than 3 days. We've seen it many times in the past. Could be one of those cases where it rains @ 35 degrees but freezes on the ground anyway. lol.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Doesn't look like a "warm" cutter but waa out in front of a western trough could easily drag mid level warmth further north than we want. Pattern is progressive. We could lose an arctic high in less than 3 days. We've seen it many times in the past. Could be one of those cases where it rains @ 35 degrees but freezes on the ground anyway. lol.

That "cutter" could end up being our next best threat. I agree with those saying that. But that's only us adding our own interpretation and or spin to the guidance. Nothing wrong with thst, in some cases that's good meteorology, but in grading how good a run was I don't count that. When I said both gefs and EPS are rock bottom it's because as they are they show nothing. Not a spec of any real threat. Given the trend in this pattern the cutter day 12 could become a threat. Of course that's dangerous because the pattern by then is relaxing and the suppression we're counting on to help is happening now when fresh arctic highs are dominating.  Might not work that way.  

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That "cutter" could end up being our next best threat. I agree with those saying that. But that's only us adding our own interpretation and or spin to the guidance. Nothing wrong with thst, in some cases that's good meteorology, but in grading how good a run was I don't count that. When I said both gefs and EPS are rock bottom it's because as they are they show nothing. Not a spec of any real threat. Given the trend in this pattern the cutter day 12 could become a threat. Of course that's dangerous because the pattern by then is relaxing and the suppression we're counting on to help is happening now when fresh arctic highs are dominating.  Might not work that way.  

EPS has a lot of members attacking a departing HP d10. After seeing that I'm surprised there isn't more promising results d10-15. I agree though. We have no way of knowing how anything will shake out that far out in time. One run isn't a trend. It's just 1 run. 12z could push the optimism button again and then 0z can take it away. That's the fun we get to endure with nothing in the med range. 

[ers-wxman1]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

0z eps is probably the most depressing run of met winter. Has pretty much lost and and all chances for snow beyond tomorrow. Safe to say that the 0z eps is rock bottom and can't get worse. It was a close the shades run. Not temp wise. Just snow/precip wise. It's probably wrong but the entire east is having a hard time getting things to sync up for snow and both the eps/gefs aren't giving me much to talk about. 

This fits the ongoing pattern quite well. Disappointing. Here is the latest drought monitor...worsening conditions in our area and over the southeast. Trend is your friend when it comes to forecasting. Persistence forecast continues and the ensembles show it. Just wish they wouldn’t toss us a big tease every week to falsely generate hope. 

Drought map:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

 

[Bob Chill]

It took a while but I found a promising piece of data. GEFS has had a ton of spread with the AO the down the line. Finally consolidated on this...for now...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

The 10 day progs are starting to bust high too so that's a good thing. IF (48pt font IF) we get a -AO going then chances of any cutter go way down. At least the kind that bring big warmth with them. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Im not sure how you get a cutter to cut in this pattern.  If we get relaxation and WAR can help, then IMO something may pop in between.  

But to your point, a modeled cutter inside 4 to 5 days could end up bellying under like every other storm has been doing.  I would be rather suspicious if a model showed such an event while all other indicies remain as current.

Exactly my point. Watch, that will be the one to trend favorably and have a legit chance as we get closer. As long as it still shows a cutter at 132 hours out we are golden this year!

 

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This fits the ongoing pattern quite well. Disappointing. Here is the latest drought monitor...worsening conditions in our area and over the southeast. Trend is your friend when it comes to forecasting. Persistence forecast continues and the ensembles show it. Just wish they wouldn’t toss us a big tease every week to falsely generate hope. 

Drought map:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

 

Trend?  The lack of moisture has to do more with relentless arctic push than anything.  We just almost .5 inches of rain on the 23rd.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS has a lot of members attacking a departing HP d10. After seeing that I'm surprised there isn't more promising results d10-15. I agree though. We have no way of knowing how anything will shake out that far out in time. One run isn't a trend. It's just 1 run. 12z could push the optimism button again and then 0z can take it away. That's the fun we get to endure with nothing in the med range. 

I saw that. So I looked at what the individual members seem to do based on the qpf and snow plots. Judging from the mean heights it seems they all agree that once that high departs the trough dumps into the west and enough rushing pops in the east to drive whatever forms due north. A miss valley to Cleveland track. So what looks like a decent frozen panel day 10 becomes a low over Ohio day 12.  And it also seems to agree in doing it in a way that keeps precip to our west until well after the cold is gone. I'm not saying I think it goes down that way just that's what it shows. 

[Birds~69]

55 minutes ago, Ger said:

Yeah, always easier when the PHL and NYC weenies go down with us. Makes things much more bearable. BOS's climo is so different, and it is so much further NE, that I tend not to care what happens up there.

Really, PHL doesn't have any true weenies. NYC definitely does (not all).

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It took a while but I found a promising piece of data. GEFS has had a ton of spread with the AO the down the line. Finally consolidated on this...for now...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

The 10 day progs are starting to bust high too so that's a good thing. IF (48pt font IF) we get a -AO going then chances of any cutter go way down. At least the kind that bring big warmth with them. 

 

I'm glad you took you took up the "let's find a positive" torch this morning. I'm just not feeling it. Not sure why. Maybe my biorhythms are off. Maybe I just need a good cup of coffee. I'm gonna take a break and maybe I'll have my head in a better place later today but I was feeling frustrated  this morning. I'm not defeated. It will snow again eventually. Just wasn't feeling like smelling the roses this morning. It's probably not as bad as I was making it. 

[ers-wxman1]

11 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Trend?  The lack of moisture has to do more with relentless arctic push than anything.  We just almost .5 inches of rain on the 23rd.

Dry trend is your friend when forecasting. IE...it’s been dry, models show continued dry, no change to the pattern, persistence works best. 

[ers-wxman1]

13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Trend?  The lack of moisture has to do more with relentless arctic push than anything.  We just almost .5 inches of rain on the 23rd.

0.5 inches of rain does nothing amidst an overall dry pattern over many weeks.

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Dry trend is your friend when forecasting. IE...it’s been dry, models show continued dry, no change to the pattern, persistence works best. 

I can find the bright side here too. Drought are always broken. 100% of the time eventually. So we're due for a lot of rain soon no matter how you shake it. 

[Newman]

I've been following your discussion about how dry it's been and haven't really realized it, but then I saw the drought monitor map. It's definitely been dry.

[ers-wxman1]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I can find the bright side here too. Drought are always broken. 100% of the time eventually. So we're due for a lot of rain soon no matter how you shake it. 

My only point is that we are more likely to see a continuation of the dry conditions at least through the medium and long range period...next week, possibly two. That the storm potential shown in the models to only be pulled out is a sign of that pattern being dominant. I’m hoping for a shift for us by mid January. We are certainly due for moisture.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

My only point is that we are more likely to see a continuation of the dry conditions at least through the medium and long range period...next week, possibly two. That the storm potential shown in the models to only be pulled out is a sign of that pattern being dominant. I’m hoping for a shift for us by mid January. We are certainly due for moisture.

The upcoming period looks frustrating but it's a moving target. Who knows, in 5 days we could be tracking something real. I don't really care much about the long term drought. I can't do jack about it.  I'm good with .25 qpf colliding with a cold air mass. It precipitates during dry periods. Just nothing prolific. We'll constantly reassess the future on a daily basis for another 9 weeks. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

7 minutes ago, Newman said:

I've been following your discussion about how dry it's been and haven't really realized it, but then I saw the drought monitor map. It's definitely been dry.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Man, the NAM is better than the GFS. NAM at 84hr isn't that bad. 

[nw baltimore wx]

It will be pretty interesting to see the Nina begin breaking down and if we end up in a more favorable precip pattern late January and February. That modeled active southern jet a week ago couldn't have been a complete fluke because every model had it. Interestingly, all the models were also pointing to this current cold and though it really got going a week or more after models suggested, there were plenty here thinking it would never happen. I'm not suggesting that suddenly the southern jet is going to hose us, but I also don't see this as becoming a late 70's winter like a few have recently noted. The Nina looks pretty close to bottoming out, so let's see how fast it begins turning the corner to neutral, and the effects.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

My only point is that we are more likely to see a continuation of the dry conditions at least through the medium and long range period...next week, possibly two. That the storm potential shown in the models to only be pulled out is a sign of that pattern being dominant. I’m hoping for a shift for us by mid January. We are certainly due for moisture.

A dry Dec. and Jan. in a Nina is followed many times by normal precip in Feb.  Whether that will be mostly snow, or rain, who knows. I see some sources calling for a stormy Feb and March, that's hard to believe now too. Then again, I would have never thought a 10 day stretch of below freezing this winter, shows you anything is possible. 

[poolz1]

Looks like the CMC wants to attack the departing arctic high in the long range...still some very cold low level arctic air around.  Maybe we find this is our next potential failure.

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It will be pretty interesting to see the Nina begin breaking down and if we end up in a more favorable precip pattern late January and February. That modeled active southern jet a week ago couldn't have been a complete fluke because every model had it. Interestingly, all the models were also pointing to this current cold and though it really got going a week or more after models suggested, there were plenty here thinking it would never happen. I'm not suggesting that suddenly the southern jet is going to hose us, but I also don't see this as becoming a late 70's winter like a few have recently noted. The Nina looks pretty close to bottoming out, so let's see how fast it begins turning the corner to neutral, and the effects.

Was that MJO related, ( lack of amplitude and falling back to the COD ), or the turn around from many days in a row of a - SOI to positive readings the last couple days. It looked great while it lasted. 

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Man, the NAM is better than the GFS. NAM at 84hr isn't that bad. 

First of all it's the NAM 84hrs.

2nd of all I don't see how it's better than the GFS. Looks similar and further east.