Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Yeah, 4 members get snow into our area, same as 12z. 2 are big hits, same with 12z and 6z. e17 drops 2"of qpf and is probably everything we can wish for If you look at the individual members, a couple shifted East, but the most extreme East ones shifted West Apparently (according to the SE forum), a met answered a question about the vort over the Bahamas yanking away our lp is a convective feedback issue, so we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 If the Ukie holds serve tonight and other 0z guidance trends in our favor it’s going to be game on. I’m just hoping we can hang on to the threat long enough to get the NAM in range for a good NAMing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, 4 members get snow into our area, same as 12z. 2 are big hits, same with 12z and 6z. e17 drops 2"of qpf and is probably everything we can wish for This storm snowfall is going to match my avatar picture based on the snowfall key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I like the trends. It's doing qhat it's supposed to do at this range when we get a snowstorm. Plusn we have a decent model b in oir favor. That's enough for me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NAVGEM trended West some as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I like the trends. It's doing qhat it's supposed to do at this range when we get a snowstorm. Plusn we have a decent model b in oir favor. That's enough for me at this point. Can I have some of what you are drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: Can I have some of what you are drinking? That's the best I can do in the waiting line outside a hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The important thing to remember is that the trend will continue until it stops or reverses. Usually, the trends will keep going when your 4-5 days out. So now we sit back and wait for the trend to stop or reverse before further panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: The important thing to remember is that the trend will continue until it stops or reverses. Usually, the trends will keep going when your 4-5 days out. So now we sit back and wait for the trend to stop or reverse before further panic. Especially since the GFS typically suppresses storms. Ukie was by far the most bullish, dropping nearly 2.0 QPF in DC. NAVGEM/GFS are most Bearish, being nearly OTS and only hitting New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I like the trends. It's doing qhat it's supposed to do at this range when we get a snowstorm. Plusn we have a decent model b in oir favor. That's enough for me at this point. I would feel good if this was a Carolina snowstorm now and we needed the same north trend as we need west. Problem with a west trend is that usually means faster phase and more amped and that tends to be contrary to what happens imo. The north trend otoh is usually a function of the Northern stream not being as far south as modeled and precip expansion due to models under doing that from range. The first factor (northern stream) would work against us here. We need a big dig and phase. I'm not saying no way. But I'm not getting excited either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The important thing to remember is that the trend will continue until it stops or reverses. Usually, the trends will keep going when your 4-5 days out. So now we sit back and wait for the trend to stop or reverse before further panic. This is one of those times where ensembles aren't instilling much confidence in things trending our way. There are a few solid hits in the mix but the vast majority aren't on our side. There's 2 ways to look at it. The good side is the spread. The spread keeps us in the game. The bad side is there isn't much support for a good outcome across all guidance. All we have is the ukie and small minority of ens. At 96-120 hours you want something better than that to feel good about our chances here. It is a very touchy setup so the window for fairly big changes is bigger. If we can at least have 2 ops and 50% of the ens showing something or at least be very close to something by 12z tomorrow I'll probably feel a little better but right now it's basically all eyes on the ukie. I'm already prepared for the rug pull at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This setup kind of reminds me of a casino. Boston is at the poker table sitting with a full house. NYC is at the blackjack table sitting with 18. Meanwhile, Ji is at the slot machines with a bag of quarters. Here’s hoping for triple 7’s. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is one of those times where ensembles aren't instilling much confidence in things trending our way. There are a few solid hits in the mix but the vast majority aren't on our side. There's 2 ways to look at it. The good side is the spread. The spread keeps us in the game. The bad side is there isn't much support for a good outcome across all guidance. All we have is the ukie and small minority of ens. At 96-120 hours you want something better than that to feel good about our chances here. It is a very touchy setup so the window for fairly big changes is bigger. If we can at least have 2 ops and 50% of the ens showing something or at least be very close to something by 12z tomorrow I'll probably feel a little better but right now it's basically all eyes on the ukie. I'm already prepared for the rug pull at 0z. 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would feel good if this was a Carolina snowstorm now and we needed the same north trend as we need west. Problem with a west trend is that usually means faster phase and more amped and that tends to be contrary to what happens imo. The north trend otoh is usually a function of the Northern stream not being as far south as modeled and precip expansion due to models under doing that from range. The first factor (northern stream) would work against us here. We need a big dig and phase. I'm not saying no way. But I'm not getting excited either. All great reasons not to be positive, but I remain positive. I think we have better than a 50/50 shot at 3-6"+ foe the reasons I stated. If I'm wrong, so what! It's not like my income will decrease if I'm wrong. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 May the trend be ever our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is one of those times where ensembles aren't instilling much confidence in things trending our way. There are a few solid hits in the mix but the vast majority aren't on our side. There's 2 ways to look at it. The good side is the spread. The spread keeps us in the game. The bad side is there isn't much support for a good outcome across all guidance. All we have is the ukie and small minority of ens. At 96-120 hours you want something better than that to feel good about our chances here. It is a very touchy setup so the window for fairly big changes is bigger. If we can at least have 2 ops and 50% of the ens showing something or at least be very close to something by 12z tomorrow I'll probably feel a little better but right now it's basically all eyes on the ukie. I'm already prepared for the rug pull at 0z. I don't think the esembles instill any confidence at all. Actually I would look at them and think we don't have a chance. I hope I'm wrong and were getting named by every model at 0z. The UKie is a weenies dream come true. The trends are good but any meaningful trends probably stop in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I’m not as bullish as Mitch but I’m not worried that the only the ukie is in our corner. In the past two weeks the models have had a difficult time, and with the majority moving in the right direction, it does seem like some magic may happen. And we’ve got Roger rooting for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't think the esembles instill any confidence at all. Actually I would look at them and think we don't have a chance. I hope I'm wrong and were getting named by every model at 0z. The UKie is a weenies dream come true. The trends are good but any meaningful trends probably stop in the next 24 hours. If your going to see any dramatic changes in modeling...it will happen tonight at 00z. the changes from 18z to 00z are usually more dramatic than 12z to 18z. #weenietalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just remember the UKMET is trash. It jumps around a lot. At 00Z it could have the storm hitting Spain and that would be normal for it. I wouldn’t trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: If your going to see any dramatic changes in modeling...it will happen tonight at 00z. the changes from 18z to 00z are usually more dramatic than 12z to 18z. #weenietalk So ur saying were getting named at 0z?? Lol. I hope the UKie has plenty of company in 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: So ur saying were getting named at 0z?? Lol. I hope the UKie has plenty of company in 4 hours. no...this storm is not happening for us lol. When is the last time we backed our way into a blizzard 3-4 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just remember the UKMET is trash. It jumps around a lot. At 00Z it could have the storm hitting Spain and that would be normal for it. I wouldn’t trust it. Huh? It's the 2nd best model behind the Euro in the model standings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Chris78 said: So ur saying were getting named at 0z?? Lol. I hope the UKie has plenty of company in 4 hours. Ukie is obviously a red flag in comparison to the rest. The gfs/cmc/euro aren't all that different. Too little too late. There's definitely going to be a storm so that part is easy. If you just look at the ops and average them we are clearly out of the game but still close enough to back our way in. The ens say that's a tall order. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: no...this storm is not happening for us lol. When is the last time we backed our way into a blizzard 3-4 days out... When is the last time we backed our way from a snow solution to a rain solution 3-4 days out? West trends can completely happen. The thing is, it's completely unreasonable to expect a heavy snowfall. If anything, our closest to best case scenario would be hoping to get on the good side of the snowfall gradient. Best case scenario would be the Ukie, but that's really far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Huh? It's the 2nd best model behind the Euro in the model standings I’ve heard that before. Pretty sure that is at 500mb or something. It does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: no...this storm is not happening for us lol. When is the last time we backed our way into a blizzard 3-4 days out... There is certainly middle ground between a blizzard and nothing, and that's what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Y'all will not rain on my snow parade. We're going to get a HECS next Thursday, and I won't be talked out of it until 00z on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? It's the 2nd best model behind the Euro in the model standings I know. That was my reaction as well. I'd be more willing to trust the Ukie than the GFS. Now, I'll admit that the Ukie seems to be the outlier right now, and it can be jumpy and amp up too much, BUT there are also times when it has the correct solution or correct idea. Is it right here? Probably not, but none of the models are probably right at this moment. We are still several days out from a complicated setup. And FWIW, the other models do seem to be trending toward the Ukie, whether they make it all the way to the Ukie track or not. I'm not expecting a blizzard, but this is the best thing we've had to track this winter by far in terms of impact plus possibility it could happen. All models have a significant storm and it's not 7-10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’ve heard that before. Pretty sure that is at 500mb or something. It does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. I’ve always made the argument that all the quiet periods within a month with no storms skew model verification stats. I would like to see someone verify a sector of the country for multiple significant storms to see which models are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’ve heard that before. Pretty sure that is at 500mb or something. It does weird stuff with coastal lows and always has. I think Wes has stated that it's a good enough model to consider when it goes against the consensus. He can correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie is obviously a red flag in comparison to the rest. The gfs/cmc/euro aren't all that different. Too little too late. There's definitely going to be a storm so that part is easy. If you just look at the ops and average them we are clearly out of the game but still close enough to back our way in. The ens say that's a tall order. Lol I think it's more likely than not that the Ukie, to some degree, folds tonight. That said, I don't know think it's a guarantee it folds, folding doesn't mean it's out in the middle of the ocean like the GFS, and it also doesn't mean it couldn't still come back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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