New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

sucks being too far north,south,east or west no matter what kind of storm we get.....

Too far south to cash in on typical New England Blizzards, but somehow too far West. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Ger said:

On the bright side is bitterly cold and very dry behind the system. So there is that.

The bright side would be to have that bitter cold blast in on the heels of a moderate snowstorm, with blowing and drifting and low wind chills. Deep winter.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

sucks being too far north,south,east or west no matter what kind of storm we get.....

Maybe we'll have a streamer off of Lake erie park on us for 24 hours as the Arctic high noses down. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Too far south to cash in on typical New England Blizzards, but somehow too far West. 

too far north to cash on the southern sliders....too far east to get good clipper action....to far west for this storm

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

sucks being too far north,south,east or west no matter what kind of storm we get.....

This is the snow anus of the universe for a reason. The worst thing is we are far enough north to get teased all the time but far enough south to get screwed just as often. At least in NC they know they aren't getting snow and they are at peace. North of us, they can hate snow yet it keeps piling up all the same. We are stuck in the middle where snow is frequent enough to hook us but elusive enough to give us terrible withdrawal. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe we'll have a streamer off of Lake erie park on us for 24 hours as the Arctic high noses down. 

i dont know man...if we keep waiting 10 days to get our snow..winter will be over soon. In 30 days, average temps go up and Ians sun angle starts playing havoc...our winter window is very limited

[osfan24]

Honestly confused about some of the pessimism on here. We are right in the game with things trending our way and time for more trending, but it's also not 10 days away, either. We have the Ukie in our corner, which is a solid model, and we have respected mets and one's that aren't typically bullish believing this has a good chance of happening. 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This is the snow anus of the universe for a reason. The worst thing is we are far enough north to get teased all the time but far enough south to get screwed just as often. At least in NC they know they aren't getting snow and they are at peace. North of us, they can hate snow yet it keeps piling up all the same. We are stuck in the middle where snow is frequent enough to hook us but elusive enough to give us terrible withdrawal. 

yep...we are usually in the game when it comes to east coast snowstorms but often times our location screws us. Typically if Philly,NY and Boston are getting snow, we will be cold enough for snow but we dont get the precip whether its a clipper, or a Miller B. And alot of times Miller A go off E right of OBX missing us that way giving us high clouds. Nobody gets more teased than our area. Dec 2010 was classic case

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This is the snow anus of the universe for a reason. The worst thing is we are far enough north to get teased all the time but far enough south to get screwed just as often. At least in NC they know they aren't getting snow and they are at peace. North of us, they can hate snow yet it keeps piling up all the same. We are stuck in the middle where snow is frequent enough to hook us but elusive enough to give us terrible withdrawal. 

This.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

too far north to cash on the southern sliders....too far east to get good clipper action....to far west for this storm

The real kick in the gut comes when the cold moves out in time for a real precip event. We could have 2 straight weeks of great temps with less than a tenth of precip but then get 1" qpf right after we lose the column. 

[Jebman]

However elusive the snow seems to us here in the Mid Atlantic right now, we WILL get snow this winter. I can literally feel it deep in my right foot where I had a motorcycle accident up in Illinois long ago.

That thing hurt in 1996 Jan, in Jan 2010, all thru the winter of 13-14, and it aches  now.

By March we are going to be sick of slushing thru snow and we are going to be crying for Spring. The heating companies are going to be trillionaires by late May when the winter finally ends and we finally hit 50 for a high temp lol.

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Honestly confused about some of the pessimism on here. We are right in the game with things trending our way and time for more trending, but it's also not 10 days away, either. We have the Ukie in our corner, which is a solid model, and we have respected mets and one's that aren't typically bullish believing this has a good chance of happening. 

With all respect, speaking a similar tune to some others in the last couple posts, it’s just the conditioning we have undergone because of our climo and some disappointments. Clippers often bomb too late, redeveloping Miller B’s focus north typically, and a good track is ideally needed from Miller A systems to snow on us but also to not draw in too much warm air. When the cold is there, sometimes south of us get their unicorn storms. While I will agree trends are positive for the upcoming possibility, this isn’t one we would succeed with in a textbook case. The percentages would lean toward a disappointment, it is important to “tread lightly.”

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The real kick in the gut comes when the cold moves out in time for a real precip event. We could have 2 straight weeks of great temps with less than a tenth of precip but then get 1" qpf right after we lose the column. 

But somehow Worcester, MA gee whizzes their way into a surprise MECS.

[Roger Smith]

There's a lot of diving energy far enough west to be moderately optimistic for Mid Atl snow, and for a track closer to 40/70 than currently suggested on GFS etc. 

Would think the NAM extrapolated would explode a low near 36N 72W, still a bit east of where you want, but could have that hangback feature from the combined northern reflection and the other energy following in from plains states. 

I think almost any solution we've seen in previous days is still on the table and it could be weenies schooling mets or vice versa.

 

[osfan24]

For the most part, we get the same storms NYC and Philly get. The only real difference is Boston. Sometimes NYC gets clipped by the ones that hit Boston, but generally the three of us are in the same boat. How quickly people forget our big storms of 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2016. I'm dying for another big one, but we've been on quite a run, especially when you considering how good 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were despite the absence of big storms (though if you live in the favored posts, the February 2014 one was great too).

[mitchnick]

Welp I'm feeling this one.

[ers-wxman1]

I know that as of late not one deterministic model can be trusted right now given the track record, but I will say that I’m quite interested in what is taking shape. This is a different setup than the fantasy overrunning storms of late.

Either way, there are serious pieces of energy coming together over an area that can produce a coastal bomb of a system. The shear size and power of an ocean storm of this magnitude could cause coastal damage, flooding, erosion etc if it’s legit and does track closer to the coast.  Not saying it will happen but potential is there for something significant. Let’s see how the UL pattern develops over the next few days. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Welp I'm feeling this one.

I like being in the game still. I'll admit that. We need to root for a NYC blizzard. Or at least a decent event. I would really like to see another run like the euro with h5 closing off south of us. That type of progression gives us a lot of breathing room but at this point seems very unlikely. 

[Jebman]

It's probably nothing, but todays high temperature was forecast to be 38. We hit 28 instead. Now the Arctic comes roaring back in tonight hmmmm.

I dont see how a third of an inch of snow could cause that much albedo. Some of it did melt. It wasnt all that cloudy either, plenty of sun.

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The real kick in the gut comes when the cold moves out in time for a real precip event. We could have 2 straight weeks of great temps with less than a tenth of precip but then get 1" qpf right after we lose the column. 

Yep. Then cold rushes back in just in time for a southern slider followed by a clipper that tracks at mdpa border

[Cobalt]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Welp I'm feeling this one.

I'm gonna stay cautious, but I feel better now about the potential event. Still pretty far out, so it could go either way. 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yep. Then cold rushes back in just in time for a southern slider followed by a clipper that tracks at mdpa border

Sounds like the 18z gfs lol

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yep. Then cold rushes back in just in time for a southern slider followed by a clipper that tracks at mdpa border

You should be a pro long ranger. You just nailed a 15 day forecast. 

One thing that keeps me interested is how poorly models have done with the northern stream beyond 3-4 days. I believe the folks saying that it's caused by sparse data. Models are mostly relying on satellite data for accuracy in a large area where important things are happening. Add in shortwaves riding at jet speed across Yukon etc makes it even harder for models to get exact strength and placement right. We need 3 pieces to work out just right to make it work. Still probably at least 24 hours away before some of that is modeled accurately and then big jumps and model disagreement should mostly be over. 

[Ji]

Looks like 2 18z ensemble members would make us happy 

[clskinsfan]

26 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Sounds like the 18z gfs lol

Sounds like our climo in all honesty. We get hit rarely enough that when it does happen it is special. If I lived in Boston the snow would just be a pain in the ass 

[Cobalt]

GEFS slightly West, but not by a whole lot 

edit: it's just 2 members skewing the mean it looks like. 

[Bob Chill]

Yea, 12z gefs was much better. So the op jumps west and the ens jump east. Good times. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Cobalt said:

GEFS slightly West, but not by a whole lot 

I think you're looking at 12z

[Cobalt]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I think you're looking at 12z

Nevermind, the run as a whole was East, but there are 2 members that look like huge hits which are probably skewing the mean

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Sounds like our climo in all honesty. We get hit rarely enough that when it does happen it is special. If I lived in Boston the snow would just be a pain in the ass in all honesty

If I lived in Boston I'd be in great shape because I would be digging snow regularly, and posting pics here on the forum lol. I'd be on a permanent high.