Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 DT on the potential storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Not quite sure what to think. As many have pointed out, the setup is more complicated than our usual snowstorms and certainly favors NE of here. However, the Ukie has definitely been known to sniff out a westward threat regarding east coast cyclogenesis earlier than other models. However, it also has been known to over-amp things in the midrange. Maybe someone can pull a little Jan 2000 mojo and get this thing to develop further west then move up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT on the potential storm: Sound so reasonable to me. The dominant solution is OTS. I certainly wouldn't forecast an EC storm as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 DT says no storm.....IM all in for Major East Coast Storm now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 21 minutes ago, Negnao said: Like this? Yep, something similar to that. I love my Kocin books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I wasn't a fan of the eps or gefs. I suppose you could make the case of the herd behavior due to shorter leads but the ukie is the only model showing a flush hit and very few ens solutions look like it. We're pretty close in time as well. On the other hand, a neg tilt phase will cause a significant jump in track if it's real so this isn't one that "ticks nw". It either phases or it doesn't. Without at least a partial phase there's not nearly enough room in front of the trough for a storm to take a classic track. We'll know the answer by the 12z runs tomorrow. Pretty sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: DT says no storm.....IM all in for Major East Coast Storm now! I mean, he was wrong for this Friday's storm, so maybe he keeps the streak going He certainly doesn't want to make a mistake like Dec 26th 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: DT says no storm.....IM all in for Major East Coast Storm now! You know he is browsing anonymously...this is some of the best analysis on the web. I bet many mets browse and we never know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Im rooting for this one big time....bring it on.......no doubt on that bristow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wasn't a fan of the eps or gefs. I suppose you could make the case of the herd behavior due to shorter leads but the ukie is the only model showing a flush hit and very few ens solutions look like it. We're pretty close in time as well. On the other hand, a neg tilt phase will cause a significant jump in track if it's real so this isn't one that "ticks nw". It either phases or it doesn't. Without at least a partial phase there's not nearly enough room in front of the trough for a storm to take a classic track. We'll know the answer by the 12z runs tomorrow. Pretty sure a about that. Dude...you're wife is calling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Keep hearing this storm will have to back in from the east by quite a bit. I think that is a false assumption. If this plays out the way the models are now suggesting is a possibility, chances are good we see a storm form off the SE coast and ride up North just off the coast. Exactly, the storm hasn't even formed yet. If this storm forms where we wanted to it will form and ride right up the coast. No real backing in once the storm forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yep, something similar to that. I love my Kocin books. If we have to go back to 1922... maybe we can get our once in a century storm for the 2000s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I still stick with my image from yesterday... I do not like the threat for this area unless I see a Low track through South and North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: I still stick with my image from yesterday... I do not like the threat for this area unless I see a Low track through South and North Carolina. You aren't going to like this one even if it gives you a foot of deathbands then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Meanwhile 18z gfs a hair further west with disturbance dropping out of Montana@54h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, peribonca said: Meanwhile 18z gfs a hair further west with disturbance dropping out of Montana@54h WHole western ridge is a tick further west, leaves more room for amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Dude...you're wife is calling After what I went through today I'm off the hook for the rest of all of 2017. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You aren't going to like this one even if it gives you a foot of deathbands then Oh I didn't day that. I am just not convinced and will not get my hopes up. This has the making for the no vacancy sign to light up in the panic room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Well I finally kicked the energy out of here after 22" of snow in 48 hours. You're welcome. NAM looks very promising, that position would be ideal for a coastal trek, but at the moment if I had to put money on a track I would say a little east of ideal, will need some sort of complex secondary hangback to get a great result for MidAtlantic. NYC, Long Island and New England can almost count on a blizzard now. NJ-ePA-Delmarva 50/50 and BWI-DCA 30/70 are my odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ok back on topic..... 18z backed off confluence in the atl through hr72. This run will have more room to boogie even if it's still east of what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The two vorts are closer this run at 78 hours. Perhaps an earlier phase incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Northern stream a tick west, confluence in the NE a tick further NE, heights a tick higher in the east. Hopefully we get a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The “complex secondary” that Roger mentions is what I was trying to elude to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 low popping further west at hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Northern stream a tick west, confluence in the NE a tick further NE, heights a tick higher in the east. Hopefully we get a better solution. It's like a Tourettes run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 More negatively tilted as well than at the same timeframe on the 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A lot of energy off the coast of N. Florida at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 looks like another low trying to form near the coast at 92? 2 lows on the gfs now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Something trying to pop at 96 on the se coast? Probably wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Precip sprouting in extreme SE South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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