nj2va Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I would think we also want the energy off CA to hold back to keep the flow from being too progressive and hold a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeeeaaah getting storms to "back into" here like that seems like a lower percentage shot in my untrained opinion...(any examples of when that has actually worked? That is, where the models ticked west in the short range and we ended up with a nice hit?) Maybe not huge hits, but there are plenty of examples of storms that trended NW last minute. Just this month the Dec 8-9 snow, March 13-14 also trended NW (especially with the sleet line), Jan 6-7 2017, and even Jan 22-24 2016 trended NW (especially for NYC). We've seen it before. Either it's the precip shield extending farther West, or it's biases on the models. We've seen it time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/29/2017 at 9:44 AM, Bob Chill said: I guess there's a bright side to this mess...usually the most painful winter periods where we get no snow usually include areas within a 3 hour drive getting something decent. That's not the case right now. Nobody for 1,500 miles of coastline has anything exciting to track so there's that at least Maybe this will some type of unicorn storm. But I really want to say is that I love the dog in your profile picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Maybe not huge hits, but there are plenty of examples of storms that trended NW last minute. Just this month the Dec 8-9 snow, March 13-14 also trended NW (especially with the sleet line), Jan 6-7 2017, and even Jan 22-24 2016 trended NW (especially for NYC). We've seen it before. Either it's the precip shield extending farther West, or it's biases on the models. We've seen it time and time again. Usually what happens is the storm is slated to hit us all along but screw NYC and BOS. The storm trends more north and west and they end up getting nailed too. The whole "north trend" and 'snow magnet" is a SNE thing. Usually doesn't work here. You'll learn soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Usually what happens is the storm is slated to hit us all along but screw NYC and BOS. The storm trends more north and west and they end up getting nailed too. The whole "north trend" and 'snow magnet" is a SNE thing. Usually doesn't work here. You'll learn soon enough. Right. Instances like January '16 are rare. NYC did very well but BOS ended up with 8.4". NYC does extremely well splitting the difference between DC/BAL climo and Bos's. As does PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Keep hearing this storm will have to back in from the east by quite a bit. I think that is a false assumption. If this plays out the way the models are now suggesting is a possibility, chances are good we see a storm form off the SE coast and ride up North just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 EPS members seemed like a positive step. Nothing huge, but it was an improvement over 0z. There are a couple of additional members that now get us into warning criteria snowfalls and a couple of the big members have bigger snows closer than they were last run. We have 5 days to go. There's a ton of time for small shifts, which would make a big difference. I also like that the Ukie is a big snowstorm for us. Maybe it's just one run, but I'd rather have that in my corner than not at this point. I agree that Boston is sitting pretty and by far in the safest spot, but interestingly Cranky threw something out on Twitter that he thinks this is either a hit for everyone or no one, which I don't agree with because I could easily see Boston getting destroyed and everyone else watching helplessly as it happens, but he knows far more than I ever will so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We'll see if he's right. Waiting for what wxrisk has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Some storms definitely shift west as we draw near, but they shift east as well. There was a storm where NYC was supposed to get like 2 feet and I think they got like 6 inches because it was just a tad east. Think it was a few years ago but not sure. There's also a former NWS employee on Accuweather forums who has a really good track record of seemingly calling these things and he seems to think there's a good chance this is happening, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: We'll see if he's right. Waiting for what wxrisk has to say But why does he say that? I like to know how my sausage is made. Yes guidance shifted west but why should it continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: But why does he say that? I like to know how my sausage is made. Yes guidance shifted west but why should it continue. I have no idea. Probably just a gut feeling on his part. He's basically flipping a coin, but I believe guidance will keep shifting NW, but that's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Keep hearing this storm will have to back in from the east by quite a bit. I think that is a false assumption. If this plays out the way the models are now suggesting is a possibility, chances are good we see a storm form off the SE coast and ride up North just off the coast. Yeah, it seems our best chance is for a low to pop along the coast. I'm not sure that we are rooting for the initial low to be too close to the coast. You and others would no better, but my guess is we need some separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: But why does he say that? I like to know how my sausage is made. Yes guidance shifted west but why should it continue. I just want to know who the he!! Franks Weather is. For all I know he is just some Joe Shmoe that bases his thoughts on wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 FWIW, cranky is definitely more bullish than usual. On Twitter he says the storm has "pretty good promise to pull it off" as a regionwide event. This guy is smart as sh!t, good to see him interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I just want to know who the he!! Franks Weather is. For all I know he is just some Joe Shmoe that bases his thoughts on wish casting. I see it now...he is the Weather Mastr....mystery solved. It's coming west folks...I'll alert the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: I see it now...he is the Weather Mastr....mystery solved. It's coming west folks...I'll alert the media. I have a feeling he's hugging the Ukie. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Keep hearing this storm will have to back in from the east by quite a bit. I think that is a false assumption. If this plays out the way the models are now suggesting is a possibility, chances are good we see a storm form off the SE coast and ride up North just off the coast. Yes, it won't form off the coast and back in; that doesn't happen for us. If this works out it will ride up the coast and look pretty different than current projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 hours ago, Ji said: you need to tell your wife to leave you alone during winters from 10:30am to 2:00pm! Well, just got back from like 5 stores and you didn't pull the storm into the MA with the euro. Sheesh. I was counting on you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I have a feeling he's hugging the Ukie. Probably. http://www.stormhamster.com/e123017.htm this is a good read about this from Cranky...just released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 00Z runs are important. This is right around the usual time when we all expect the models to keep going west and instead they lurch back east and kill the threat entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Fwiw, Nam 18z has the streams pulled west from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Yeah, it seems our best chance is for a low to pop along the coast. I'm not sure that we are rooting for the initial low to be too close to the coast. You and others would no better, but my guess is we need some separation. If you are worrying that the storm might end up too far west where the DC/Balt corridor has issues with precip type I probably wouldn't. Though the shore might have issues the cities are firmly entrenched and deep within the cold. Short of a sneaky warm layer at mid-levels (sleet/fr rain) about the only way I can see at this point where it could possibly become an issue is if we see the low absolutely bomb out and phase just off the VA shore and get drawn inland to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Hey guys I know it’s the Nam but I felt like it was a super good run and continued the trend in the right direction. Better heights in NE. 12z Nam had it around Syracuse Ny and a line from there. 18z Nam has it over western Maine. Also, if you look at the gfs around 90 hrs on the 12z, it has the main bundle of energy wrt the northern stream centered over Green Bay Wisconsin. 18z Nam has it centered around Mason City Iowa. Big difference to allow this thing to dig even more and catch up to the southern s/w. Definitely some signs that this thing wants to throw a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, Nam 18z has the streams pulled west from 12z. Beat me to it Mitch. I typed too much lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Beat me to it Mitch. I typed too much lmao. Nah, you did a better job explaining it than my quick thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I thought the placement of the low here was interesting and different from the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Canadian ensembles have consolidated into tracks that are more clustered around the op. About half show snow for DC now around January 4-5, which is a significant bump up from 00z. Most of them are pretty light on qpf though. One member goes nuts. It gives DC 2" of qpf as snow, and then nine days later it drops another 1.5+" of qpf as more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, cae said: Canadian ensembles have consolidated into tracks that are more clustered around the op. About half show snow for DC now, which is a significant bump up from 00z. Most of them are pretty light on qpf though. One member goes nuts. It gives DC 2" of qpf as snow, and then nine days later it drops another 1.5+" of qpf as more snow. Sounds more like a member of this board than the Canadian ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Keep hearing this storm will have to back in from the east by quite a bit. I think that is a false assumption. If this plays out the way the models are now suggesting is a possibility, chances are good we see a storm form off the SE coast and ride up North just off the coast. Like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: Canadian ensembles have consolidated into tracks that are more clustered around the op. About half show snow for DC now, which is a significant bump up from 00z. Most of them are pretty light on qpf though. One member goes nuts. It gives DC 2" of qpf as snow, and then nine days later it drops another 1.5+" of qpf as more snow. I'll take the one nuts member, some brutal cold after it for awhile for a slow thaw, and then winter can be over and we can start to warm up come February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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