ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 a scraper is very possible too where the coastline could see 6 inches and 95 west very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: a scraper is very possible too where the coastline could see 6 inches and 95 west very little That’s my uneducated guess at this point it’ll be a close but no cigar kind of thing for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Maybe it has a western bias? Euro would usually have the storm at this range. I just think the pattern closing in on itself more could happen, it would be weird for storm to be result but today's snow was hopeful.. Regardless of outcome, I do feel good about Jan and maybe even extending to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, frd said: You mean the Euro will eventually trend West ? Ukmet accuracy is up there, but because a lot of its performance metrics and things along those lines are held in private it is hard to determne it's true value. Too bad we don't have the dgex anymore. That would be the only way to know for sure if the storm will come west enough. At least we have the German which shifted west. Point is that until the gfs or euro are even close with precip, we should temper our expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 DT posted something about two small rounds of snow for tomorrow, one pre-dawn and then one with the front around noon. Would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 allen huffman just mentioned that the EPS did trend with precip bump up in qpf along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 trend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 EPS did in fact trend west. 0z vs 12z below. Noticeable shift west on the snowfall mean as well. Quite a few more closer to the coast. Trends are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: EPS did in fact trend west. 0z vs 12z below. Noticeable shift west on the snowfall mean as well. Quite a few more closer to the coast. Trends are good. Better, but still no big hits among the individual members for us. Some few big hits just to our E and NE including NYC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Negnao said: Better, but still no big hits among the individual members for us. Some few big hits just to our E and NE including NYC though. Yeah. All that really matters is the noticeable shift west. Keep 'em coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looking at individual EPS members. Many on the edge, but really good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Regarding the mslp image above, the cluster far to the east and far to the west is interesting. Is that the possible double low system the ukie has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looking at individual EPS members. Many on the edge, but really good trend. Thanks for posting. Seems like we’re still on the outside looking in but curious if any 0z members gave us snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Regarding the image above, the cluster far to the east and far to the west is interesting. Is that the possible double low system the ukie has? No, the snows to the west are upslope snows the mountains will see over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: Thanks for posting. Seems like we’re still on the outside looking in but curious if any 0z members gave us snow? I looked at 0z, and it's hard to tell since a lot of the ensemble members had today's snowfall there, but it looks like 2 members give us snow, but on the edge. Very welcome trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: No, the snows to the west are upslope snows the mountains will see over the coming days. I believe he's referring to the Low Location image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 None of those eps members are as far west as the UKMET with precip. UKMET is clearly an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Congrats Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: None of those eps members are as far west as the UKMET with precip. UKMET is clearly an outlier. I'm pretty sure so far it's led the trend. It was an outlier at the 12z run yesterday, and since then, they have trended West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I believe he's referring to the Low Location image. My bad. Guess I need to learn how to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: No, the snows to the west are upslope snows the mountains will see over the coming days. No, I mean the mslp image and referring to the lows clustered off center to the right and left. 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I believe he's referring to the Low Location image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: No, I mean the mslp image and referring to the lows clustered off center to the right and left. Just glancing over the individual members now. Though there are double barrel solutions I think the majority are a single low feature. There are some very strong lows popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Models tend to have a SE bias almost all of the time. Hopefully this will be no different, especially a short range. 50 miles can make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Keep in mind people that the Euro/Eps at range often under plays the NW extent of the precip field as well as underdoes the precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 From a quick glance there are at least a handful of solutions within the members that are probably very good hits for our region even though the snowfall maps say other wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At least there are legit grounds to be optimistic and not just that we're 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I'm pretty sure so far it's led the trend. It was an outlier at the 12z run yesterday, and since then, they have trended West I can't be optimistic about this storm for our area, I am biased against storms backing in from the Atlantic for our area. I'm not falling for trends, I'll believe it only if there's an overwhelming consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Amped said: I can't be optimistic about this storm for our area, I am biased against storms backing in from the Atlantic for our area. I'm not falling for trends, I'll believe it only if there's an overwhelming consensus Yeeeaaah getting storms to "back into" here like that seems like a lower percentage shot in my untrained opinion...(any examples of when that has actually worked? That is, where the models ticked west in the short range and we ended up with a nice hit?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Amped said: I can't be optimistic about this storm for our area, I am biased against storms backing in from the Atlantic for our area. I'm not falling for trends, I'll believe it only if there's an overwhelming consensus Im optimistic for boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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