Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ukie is broad 998 lp off of OBX (too far east) @ 120 and 977 in downeast ME @ 144. No doubt SNE/NNE get destroyed. Here....nasomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just the nature of the beast Mitch. With their latitude they do both complicated and simple setups well. Late blooming and early developing storms as well. Here in the Mid-Atlantic we need simple and we need well timed to produce. He!!, my dog farts and NE gets a foot of snow whereas all I get for my troubles is a stench filled house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ukie is broad 998 lp off of OBX (too far east) @ 120 and 977 in downeast ME @ 144. No doubt SNE/NNE get destroyed. Here....nasomuch Better than 0z though, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I could see some snow making it back here (or at least the delmarva) on this panel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Better than 0z though, yes? Yea, looks better. Also looks like a straight blizzard in parts of the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, looks better. Also looks like a straight blizzard in parts of the NE. Call me greedy, but if I can’t have that, no one should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 just need a trend west of about 100 miles to get very interesting......still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I could see some snow making it back here (or at least the delmarva) on this panel: Anybody got the 0z? Is this a trend west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC panel 138 came out on TT. It's west of the GFS, 957 low on the ME/CA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Anybody got the 0z? Is this a trend west? Can't tell from the 24 hour panels. It's a lot stronger up north. No doubt there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, looks better. Also looks like a straight blizzard in parts of the NE. Based on reading other sources as well, it would appear possible we could still get significant impacts as the players are very dynamic, and its going to be very difficult to model this correctly. One thing, it's a going to be a powerful system with very cold air to work with against a very warm Atlantic , maybe get feedback and push the boundary West in time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I could see some snow making it back here (or at least the delmarva) on this panel: That's actually not too bad a look at 500's. Just misses for us but just north of us probably gets slammed. A little quicker with the trough and we are in the game I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: That's actually not too bad a look at 500's. Just misses for us but just north of us probably gets slammed. A little quicker with the trough and we are in the game I would think. Without precip panels I can't tell how well developed the storm is off of OBX. A lot more amp @ 96 than the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I could see some snow making it back here (or at least the delmarva) on this panel: There continue to be runs like that ukmet there that have that double low structure. That's the old miller a that runs OTS and a new low more tucked in with the better upper level support is. The best chance we have, and I still think it's a crazy long shot, is if somehow over time it trends towards that tucked in low being the dominant feature. Either run the initial wave way out and bomb the secondary behind it or hold up the primary and capture it. The trend back to a more west digging northern stream trough puts that back on the table I guess (still not buying it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Without precip panels I can't tell how well developed the storm is off of OBX. A lot more amp @ 96 than the GFS: Decent flow off the ocean at 500 mb into the cold, if the the 700's follow suite I would think we were probably seeing at least some snowfall through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There continue to be runs like that ukmet there that have that double low structure. That's the old miller a that runs OTS and a new low more tucked in with the better upper level support is. The best chance we have, and I still think it's a crazy long shot, is if somehow over time it trends towards that tucked in low being the dominant feature. Either run the initial wave way out and bomb the secondary behind it or hold up the primary and capture it. The trend back to a more west digging northern stream trough puts that back on the table I guess (still not buying it). Yea, you can look at that scenario a couple ways...pessimists will say "boxing day redux" and optimists will say "no two storms are alike and the more chances we get the better odds we have". I'll stick with wait and see and remain (like you) skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, you can look at that scenario a couple ways...pessimists will say "boxing day redux" and optimists will say "no two storms are alike and the more chances we get the better odds we have". I'll stick with wait and see and remain (like you) skeptical. Although I mentioned Boxing Day because there are definitely similarities wrt who got snow then and who's proged now to get it, that was a completely different setup if memory serves. The positive is that there really is plenty of time for the models to come further west. That's all we can ask for at this point. Heck, there's so much time that if the models showed us with a hit today, the thought of holding that solution for 5 days would be mind numbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, looks better. Also looks like a straight blizzard in parts of the NE. ukmet looks really weak though at OBX....we need it like 965 like the GFS had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I don't mind the look of the gfs day 10. Yes it does north of us but it doesn't cut. It gets turned east but a bit too far north for us. That will chance for sure. But it's not that far off from what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Although I mentioned Boxing Day because there are definitely similarities wrt who got snow then and who's proged now to get it, that was a completely different setup if memory serves. The positive is that there really is plenty of time for the models to come further west. That's all we can ask for at this point. Heck, there's so much time that if the models showed us with a hit today, the thought of holding that solution for 5 days would be mind numbing. I like your thinking. I like where we are right now. Being in the bull's eye 5 days out never ends well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC very close. Dusting on the delmarva/obx, decent event in NYC, and you already know what happens to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: CMC very close. Dusting on the delmarva/obx, decent event in NYC, and you already know what happens to SNE It's a monster for Boston. Yikes. Trying not to think about Boxing Day, but those scars run deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 In some ways I wish models would just leave well enough alone. If we're out then just leave us out. Stringing us along for another couple days before pulling it again would do nothing for me except make me want to break stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC very close. Dusting on the delmarva/obx, decent event in NYC, and you already know what happens to SNE If you loop it starting at 102 hrs, the precip field goes right around us. Now that DOES look like Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: If you it starting at 102 hrs, tge precip field goes right around us. Now that DOES look like Boxing Day. Yea, we need a mature storm south of our latitude. Imagine if models show a timed bomb right off the coast over the next couple days. Screw that up by 4 hours and it ruins our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC very close. Dusting on the delmarva/obx, decent event in NYC, and you already know what happens to SNE Where are you finding it? TT and Wxbell only out to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If you it starting at 102 hrs, the precip field goes right around us. Now that DOES look like Boxing Day. Typical storm backing in off the ocean. Unless we have a block like Sandy, this is damn near impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 things are trending in the right direction....now we just want to euro to continue, at least push west 50 miles or so west of the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In some ways I wish models would just leave well enough alone. If we're out then just leave us out. Stringing us along for another couple days before pulling it again would do nothing for me except make me want to break stuff. I can't agree more. I hate getting sucked back in just for another slap in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I can't agree more. I hate getting sucked back in just for another slap in the face. dont get sucked in then...this was never happening for us should be your attitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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