UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Can someone elaborate on what mechanics generate “ocean effect” snow we’re seeing off the coast.. I’m assuming it’s similar to lake effect as the cold presses through... is like to know actually dynamics tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can someone elaborate on what mechanics generate “ocean effect” snow we’re seeing off the coast.. I’m assuming it’s similar to lake effect as the cold presses through... is like to know actually dynamics tia It’s exactly the same structure. Nothing more nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 9 hours ago, NJwx85 said: For those of you like me that cannot wait for Spring, only about 6-7 weeks of true snow season remain. After President's Day week odds of a significant storm decline significantly. We all know that it can snow into April, but the heart of the season will be over by then. We deserve an early Spring after how bitterly cold it has been. Don't get too far out over your skis here bud. February will be cold with AN snow. I hate post March 15 snows , whats the point. That said we have a solid 2 week break coming and then those heights rise again in Alaska and it's game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 NYC below zero, doesn't look likely as 850s don't get near -28 which is what is needed for NYC. Saturday night many should go below zero if we get calm winds by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can someone elaborate on what mechanics generate “ocean effect” snow we’re seeing off the coast.. I’m assuming it’s similar to lake effect as the cold presses through... is like to know actually dynamics tia Check out GOES16 from today. Looks like even the sound tried to produce http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-14-96-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: NYC below zero, doesn't look likely as 850s don't get near -28 which is what is needed for NYC. Saturday night many should go below zero if we get calm winds by morning winds aren't favorable either. wnw instead of northerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would like to see maps at 500, 850 and surface of the 1934 and 1917 arctic outbreak here. I just don’t see any way that NYC could go that far below 0 unless the polar vortex basically dropped right out of Quebec over us So you think the cold is originating from a source too far away from us in other words? Perhaps it's moderating as it gets closer to our region if I understand correctly. I think NYC will get stuck in the low single digits. Even for me to go more than 3 or 4 below has been very hard in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: winds aren't favorable either. wnw instead of northerly They were WNW when they did it in 2016 and the 850s were only -27 I think but they just short this time around -25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: They were WNW when they did it in 2016 and the 850s were only -27 I think but they just short this time around -25 -27 to -28 is the magic number, every degree matters, probably get down to 4 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 LGA 12/-7 NW@24G33, just an awfully chilly airmass. Really bitter outside with the fresh snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 Current temp is 6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Next 8 days shoot right up to an average of 33degs., or just NORMAL. 8.2degs. here, right now. Long Range: Jan.9 to Jan.18. Mixed bag. Jan. 18 into early Feb. AN , no snow cover. After Feb. 05, Unknown future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Looks like one of the biggest temperature rebounds this week we have seen in early January. There can be more than a 50 degree range in spots between the Sunday low and the late week high temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I have been reading your posts since Sept. I appreciate the short term read. Beyond that... To make a statement like no snow cover for a 2 week swath of January is extraordinary. All it takes is the correct timing (think last MLK weekend) and you get your storm and snowcover. Even if it lasts a day, that statement is found to be wrong. Unless you are seeing a torch of 50 plus for a 2 week period, anything and everything is fair game in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Stratosphere seems to be cooling at 10mb, 30mb from below mean values to start with, 50mb and 70mb are at mean values, but may be getting ready to tip over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 This morning, the temperature fell to 8° in Central Park. That is the 4th day this winter that the thermometer has fallen below 10°. The last winter with at least as many such days was winter 2014-15 when there were 9. This was also the 11th consecutive day on which the temperature fell below 20°, the most since there were 11 consecutive days from December 17-27, 1989. The guidance continues to signal a January thaw with early next week marking the transition. The warmest readings relative to normal are likely to occur toward the end of the thaw. NYC’s Average Temperature Through: 1/5: 18.7° (14.3° below normal) 1/10: 20.9°-23.3° (1/5 estimate: 20.2°-23.2°) 1/15: 26.8°-30.4° (1/5 estimate: 24.7°-28.7°) 1/20: 27.4°-31.6° (1/5 estimate: 25.9°-30.4°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 55% (1/5 estimate: 57%) Some of the guidance continues to point to a light snowfall for parts of the region (generally an inch or less with a few higher amounts) Monday night into Tuesday morning as the transition toward a thaw commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I have been reading your posts since Sept. I appreciate the short term read. Beyond that... To make a statement like no snow cover for a 2 week swath of January is extraordinary. All it takes is the correct timing (think last MLK weekend) and you get your storm and snowcover. Even if it lasts a day, that statement is found to be wrong. Unless you are seeing a torch of 50 plus for a 2 week period, anything and everything is fair game in January. The temperature jump is going to be crazy come Thursday and Friday. The metro area will be approaching, if not exceeding 50 degrees both days. That’s going to feel like 90 compared to this weekend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The temperature jump is going to be crazy come Thursday and Friday. The metro area will be approaching, if not exceeding 50 degrees both days. That’s going to feel like 90 compared to this weekend lol Our two winter truths of the 2010's are that snowstorms and warm ups love to overperform. A couple of days ago some models hardly had us getting much past 40 degrees this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Cold seems to be underperforming so far. Lows stayed above 5 most places. Let's see how we do tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our two winter truths of the 2010's are that snowstorms and warm ups love to overperform. A couple of days ago some models hardly had us getting much past 40 degrees this week. And there is no reason that can’t change. The Big problem on this board (and this is 100% not directed at you) is Somone seeing what they want on a given model suite and taking that as an absolute. This goes both ways obviously. But some just keep doing it over and over and over. The great thing about weather is it’s unpredicatable. We haven’t made much progress in the past 20 years as far as modeling despite tremendous increases in computing power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our two winter truths of the 2010's are that snowstorms and warm ups love to overperform. A couple of days ago some models hardly had us getting much past 40 degrees this week. Love how the models have a hard time getting the weather right until it is right upon us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6° here this morning....Monday will be close to breaking freezing so maybe we can extend streak to 14 days, Tues definitely above though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 42 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: And there is no reason that can’t change. The Big problem on this board (and this is 100% not directed at you) is Somone seeing what they want on a given model suite and taking that as an absolute. This goes both ways obviously. But some just keep doing it over and over and over. The great thing about weather is it’s unpredicatable. We haven’t made much progress in the past 20 years as far as modeling despite tremendous increases in computing power. I would have to disagree with you on this. The main sentiment that we sometimes see on the boards is that the current pattern will be what continues. Remember back in late August and early September how there were many posts suggesting that the cool pattern would continue. When we flipped to record warmth, that was going to continue. When the record cold arrived in early November, that meant that it wouldn't moderate. We got the moderation following that record cold shot. Next when the cold and snows arrived in early December , it couldn't go above 50 the week before Christmas which happened. Now that we are seeing this extreme cold, the temperatures will be set to rebound again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Today will be the 5th sub 20° day of the past 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Love how the models have a hard time getting the weather right until it is right upon us! They do very well with the general themes like transitions between warm and cold. But the specifics often have to wait until the shorter term. If you understand some of the biases, then you can see where the models may correct to later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Weather models have actually improved significantly in the last 20 years, we see that in the weeklies, monthlies, and ensembles that can nail temperature and precip patterns. Even more intricate events like hurricanes and singular storms can be tracked several days to even weeks in advance. People often blame models before potential winter storms where even a 25-50 mile change in the storm track can mean heavy snow vs. no snow or rain. Nobody notices or cares about those types of changes during rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: They do very well with the general themes like transitions between warm and cold. But the specifics often have to wait until the shorter term. If you understand some of the biases, then you can see where the models may correct to later on. Yes but they are not much better from a few days out then they will a few years ago. They also overdo or undo temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Weather models have actually improved significantly in the last 20 years, we see that in the weeklies, monthlies, and ensembles that can nail temperature and precip patterns. Even more intricate events like hurricanes and singular storms can be tracked several days to even weeks in advance. People often blame models before potential winter storms where even a 25-50 mile change in the storm track can mean heavy snow vs. no snow or rain. Nobody notices or cares about those types of changes during rain storms. That's true. Younger people on these boards don't realize the giant leap short term to seasonal NWP has made since the 80's. The EPS and OP Euro Hurricane Sandy longer range forecast was on of the top technological achievements of this century so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I would have to disagree with you on this. The main sentiment that we sometimes see on the boards is that the current pattern will be what continues. Remember back in late August and early September how there were many posts suggesting that the cool pattern would continue. When we flipped to record warmth, that was going to continue. When the record cold arrived in early November, that meant that it wouldn't moderate. We got the moderation following that record cold shot. Next when the cold and snows arrived in early December , it couldn't go above 50 the week before Christmas which happened. Now that we are seeing this extreme cold, the temperatures will be set to rebound again. A good example of that was the 2010-2011 winter. Remember back in late January 2011 when the pattern broke down and everyone kept saying that it was transient/brief and it was going to come right back? “Don’t trust long duration warmups in a cold pattern, this is temporary”.... I remember Joe Cioffi saying that back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A good example of that was the 2010-2011 winter. Remember back in late January 2011 when the pattern broke down and everyone kept saying that it was transient/brief and it was going to come right back? “Don’t trust long duration warmups in a cold pattern, this is temporary”.... I remember Joe Cioffi saying that back then Basically its almost a coin flip on whether we snap back to cold or not. I wonder what the statistics are for pattern flips vs. Reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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