doncat Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Either way we warm up to at least the upper 40s/low 50s for a time. All of our coldest winter months featured at least one thaw Yeah I mean it has to warm up...cant maintain -15 degree departures for too long. Last 10 days here have averaged 16 degrees and that figure will decrease further next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 For those of you like me that cannot wait for Spring, only about 6-7 weeks of true snow season remain. After President's Day week odds of a significant storm decline significantly. We all know that it can snow into April, but the heart of the season will be over by then. We deserve an early Spring after how bitterly cold it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: For those of you like me that cannot wait for Spring, only about 6-7 weeks of true snow season remain. After President's Day week odds of a significant storm decline significantly. We all know that it can snow into April, but the heart of the season will be over by then. We deserve an early Spring after how bitterly cold it has been. If we start transitioning towards an El Niño that won’t happen though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: If we start transitioning towards an El Niño that won’t happen though Yes I know, and the last few years have featured colder than normal late seasons, but this year so far has been a flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: For those of you like me that cannot wait for Spring, only about 6-7 weeks of true snow season remain. After President's Day week odds of a significant storm decline significantly. We all know that it can snow into April, but the heart of the season will be over by then. We deserve an early Spring after how bitterly cold it has been. I expect high snow chances throughout February and March given the negative EPO tendency this winter so far The coldest will definitely be behind us by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: I expect high snow chances throughout February and March given the negative EPO tendency this winter so far The coldest will definitely be behind us by next week. I can live with some transient cold shots and a few snow chances provided that the mean pattern is above normal regarding temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I expect high snow chances throughout February and March given the negative EPO tendency this winter so far The coldest will definitely be behind us by next week. Duration wise I would certainly agree, but I’m not sold on this being the strongest shot yet, I think after the thaw we return to a sharply colder demeanor for at least some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Duration wise I would certainly agree, but I’m not sold on this being the strongest shot yet, I think after the thaw we return to a sharply colder demeanor for at least some time. Ouch, colder than this you think?!? How much colder can it really get, this is unprecedented cold that we are experiencing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Duration wise I would certainly agree, but I’m not sold on this being the strongest shot yet, I think after the thaw we return to a sharply colder demeanor for at least some time. Yeah I said the same last month. I feel like we can see a quick, Hudson Valley-draining shot at some point during winter's next onslaught in February, similar to what we experienced on Valentine's Day in 2016. I think there's plenty more in store for us this winter, particularly in the month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: For those of you like me that cannot wait for Spring, only about 6-7 weeks of true snow season remain. After President's Day week odds of a significant storm decline significantly. We all know that it can snow into April, but the heart of the season will be over by then. We deserve an early Spring after how bitterly cold it has been. Its been cold for 12 days. December prior to the coldwave was running AN. Would you want an early winter after a 12 day AN stretch in August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowshack said: Its been cold for 12 days. December prior to the coldwave was running AN. Would you want an early winter after a 12 day AN stretch in August? That's not true, most of December was cold after the first ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ouch, colder than this you think?!? How much colder can it really get, this is unprecedented cold that we are experiencing right now. I don’t think it’ll get colder than this...sorry snowier probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Don’t think NYC is getting that below zero low as I did 5 days or so ago. I’ll guess 3 tonight and 7 tomorrow night. Tomorrow night we may see ISP finally go below zero. I don’t think they have since 88. It’s tricky though because the ridge axis may build in too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Snowshack said: Its been cold for 12 days. December prior to the coldwave was running AN. Would you want an early winter after a 12 day AN stretch in August? Doesn’t really compare though... Talking winter/spring versus you’re saying summer/winter. Personally, heck yea if we had these departures but positive in the middle of summer I would most certainly be peaking towards fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 This isn't unprecedented cold. It's colder than it's been in the recent past, but as Bluewave pointed out 1917/18 was as cold/colder. I'm sure deeper in the history books other winters were as cold or colder. The winters of 1777 and 1780 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: This isn't unprecedented cold. It's colder than it's been in the recent past, but as Bluewave pointed out 1917/18 was as cold/colder. I'm sure deeper in the history books other winters were as cold or colder. The winters of 1777 and 1780 come to mind. Well this certainly has to be a Top 5 right now. I can't remember in recent history when it was this cold for this long. Usually this type of cold only last a few days on average not 10-15 days. BTW..... u were around for the winters of 1777 and 1780!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: This isn't unprecedented cold. It's colder than it's been in the recent past, but as Bluewave pointed out 1917/18 was as cold/colder. I'm sure deeper in the history books other winters were as cold or colder. The winters of 1777 and 1780 come to mind. I would like to see maps at 500, 850 and surface of the 1934 and 1917 arctic outbreak here. I just don’t see any way that NYC could go that far below 0 unless the polar vortex basically dropped right out of Quebec over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well this certainly has to be a Top 5 right now. I can't remember in recent history when it was this cold for this long. Usually this type of cold only last a few days on average not 10-15 days. BTW..... u were around for the winters of 1777 and 1780!!! Only in spirit. I drive past Jockey Hollow everyday. I think about what those men/boys must have gone through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: I like my "fake" cold better. Albany has me pegged at -12F Sunday morning, though I typically don't reach forecast lows on windy CAA nights. If by some miracle my spot were sheltered enough to tenuously decouple in that airmass, I'd likely make a run at -20. With such a cold Arctic high moving over the area early Sunday, any areas with snowcover than can go calm will fall like a rock. Looks like CAA will be continuing until to around 6z Sunday morning. But the high may make it over after that with winds going calm in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would like to see maps at 500, 850 and surface of the 1934 and 1917 arctic outbreak here. I just don’t see any way that NYC could go that far below 0 unless the polar vortex basically dropped right out of Quebec over us 1934 had a record 1050+ mb high over Toronto funneling Arctic air down from the NW and NNW. It helped us out that Lake Ontario was frozen over so there was no modification of the airmass coming out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Only in spirit. I drive past Jockey Hollow everyday. I think about what those men/boys must have gone through. FYI http://www.thehistorygirl.com/2013/04/spending-winter-at-jockey-hollow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Next weekend looks interesting with the Canadian showing snow after a warm/rain period, anafrontal maybe? I do think we'll see some freezing rain or sleet for the 8/9 period and maybe another shot next weekend as we squeeze seasonal cold in with the warm ups. AO/PNA will still be somewhat favorable for frozen chances prior to Jan 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Only in spirit. I drive past Jockey Hollow everyday. I think about what those men/boys must have gone through. Yep, that winter at Morristown (1779-1780) was brutal. From the stories I've read, most historians think it was far worse than Valley Forge in terms of weather. However, at Valley Forge the soldiers were ill prepared and disease spread rapidly. It's really amazing to read the journals/accounts of these soldiers. My forecast low for tomorrow night is now -1°, which is up from -6° earlier this week. That maintains the trend of the cold moderating as we get closer. Nonetheless, this was an impressive cold shot because of how long it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yep, that winter at Morristown (1779-1780) was brutal. From the stories I've read, most historians think it was far worse than Valley Forge in terms of weather. However, at Valley Forge the soldiers were ill prepared and disease spread rapidly. It's really amazing to read the journals/accounts of these soldiers. My forecast low for tomorrow night is now -1°, which is down from -6° earlier this week. That maintains the trend of the cold moderating as we get closer. Nonetheless, this was an impressive cold shot because of how long it lasted. Right by me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: This isn't unprecedented cold. It's colder than it's been in the recent past, but as Bluewave pointed out 1917/18 was as cold/colder. I'm sure deeper in the history books other winters were as cold or colder. The winters of 1777 and 1780 come to mind. Heck the winter of 94 comes to mind.....I remember that 0 degree night......still the most awesome winter in terms of raw mother nature I remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, North and West said: Right by me! Wow, that's an interesting place to live near. Our state has so many great ties to the Revolution. Who knows, maybe Washington set up headquarters in my backyard Anyway, winds still whipping here, although the gusts are becoming less intense/frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 At the bottom of the hill I live on is a Revolutionary War winter camp and church that was used as a meeting house, confirmed that GW was there at least once. The name of the road that goes over the hill and down into the hollow is Union Valley Road and it has been here since the early 1700's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6 hours ago, allgame830 said: Ouch, colder than this you think?!? How much colder can it really get, this is unprecedented cold that we are experiencing right now. Just to give you guys a better idea of how cold it really is.... I'm currently between Haiti & Cuba on the north coast and it didn't get above 64 today. That's beyond unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Just to give you guys a better idea of how cold it really is.... I'm currently between Haiti & Cuba on the north coast and it didn't get above 64 today. That's beyond unprecedented. North Coast of where?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, North and West said: North Coast of where? . Between labadee haiti and Baracoa Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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