January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 10 here.

[Bluebythec]

 

Wind Chill Advisory ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ...

CURRENT WEATHER

9° FRealFeel® -20°

 

[North and West]

 

.

 

[doncat]

8° currently.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days up to an average of 27degs. or about 6degs. BN.

Right now I have 9.8degs.

EURO says the Telecons. will mostly be unfavorable, except WPO/EPO.  Any cooling of the stratosphere and the Polar Vortex will do an Archie Bell & the Drells "Tighten Up" and cook us good.

I am not looking for anything except 'accidental cold/snow from Jan. 18 >>>>> to early Feb., based on her nibs the EURO.

Comment away! On the nature of this 'atmospheric relaxation'.  I hope that is all it is.

[dmillz25]

9 here

[North and West]

Next 8 days up to an average of 27degs. or about 6degs. BN.
Right now I have 9.8degs.
EURO says the Telecons. will mostly be unfavorable, except WPO/EPO.  Any cooling of the stratosphere and the Polar Vortex will do an Archie Bell & the Drells "Tighten Up" and cook us good.
I am not looking for anything except 'accidental cold/snow from Jan. 18 >>>>> to early Feb., based on her nibs the EURO.
Comment away! On the nature of this 'atmospheric relaxation'.  I hope that is all it is.

Enjoy it while it’s here.


.

[bluewave]

This Arctic outbreak is following a similar pattern to past ones. The best snow and cold are coming near the end of the outbreak which began on December 26th. This will be the coldest 12-26-1/7 period in NYC since 1917-1918. Interesting how this comes on the 100th anniversary of that.

 

[WEATHERBUFF]

30 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days up to an average of 27degs. or about 6degs. BN.

Right now I have 9.8degs.

EURO says the Telecons. will mostly be unfavorable, except WPO/EPO.  Any cooling of the stratosphere and the Polar Vortex will do an Archie Bell & the Drells "Tighten Up" and cook us good.

I am not looking for anything except 'accidental cold/snow from Jan. 18 >>>>> to early Feb., based on her nibs the EURO.

Comment away! On the nature of this 'atmospheric relaxation'.  I hope that is all it is.

Euro has not been too good this winter and all models can't seem to get it right beyond a week, so too early to call it. I do think the pattern will favor inland locations away from the coast the next several weeks.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Euro has not been too good this winter and all models can't seem to get it right beyond a week, so too early to call it. I do think the pattern will favor inland locations away from the coast the next several weeks.

You are talking about 2 different things. The 500 mb pattern forecast from the EPS and the general OP Euro storm details. The EPS and Euro monthly forecast from early November for December did very well. The OP Euro since the 12-13 winter has been struggling with the placement of high impact winter storm events near the NE Coast under 120 hrs. The EPS did a nice job identifying the MJO and 500 mb signal for our recent storm. But as I was mentioning in the previous days, the NAM did a better job closer in with the developing convection. The NAM correctly placed the storm closer to the coast instead of jumping the prime convection and storm too far east like the OP Euro. We saw something similar with the January 2016 blizzard and the NAM getting things correct.  

[CIK62]

See if you can explain this to me.  

The CFS shows snow in 'southern Texas---northern Mexico' near Jan. 26-28, but has no internal cross check with itself, since indicated low temps. then are in the 40's and 50's and 500mb THK. is 5700m.  5400m is up in NJ.   If this is typical, I will cross check everything myself from now on, for internal consistency.

[donsutherland1]

This morning, the temperature fell to 9° in Central Park. That is the 3rd day this winter that the thermometer has fallen below 10°. The last winter with at least as many such days was winter 2014-15 when there were 9, 7 of which occurred in February when most of the region’s water bodies, including the Long Island Sound froze over. Today is also the 10th consecutive day on which the low temperature was below 20°. That is the longest such stretch since February 12-21, 2015 (10 days).  The Arctic Oscillation a preliminary -2.510, the lowest it has been this winter, while the PNA was +0.870. A cluster of ensemble members takes the AO positive after January 15. There is strong consensus among the ensemble members that the PNA will go negative near or after January 15.

As a result, following this weekend, a January thaw will likely unfold. The guidance is in strong agreement about a pattern change.

NYC’s Average Temperature Through:

1/4: 19.9° (13.1° below normal)
1/10: 20.2°-23.2° (1/4 estimate: 20.2°-23.8°)
1/15: 24.7°-28.7° (1/4 estimate: 25.1°-29.5°)
1/20: 25.9°-30.4°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 57% (1/4 estimate: 56%)

Yesterday’s blizzard dumped 4.1” snow at Philadelphia, 9.8” at New York City, and 13.4” in Boston. Since 1950, it was the 16th storm to bring at least 4” snow to each of those three cities. Looking at the first such occurrence in January (2011 and 2014 had two such storms), all 14 cases saw at least some measureable snow in the 20 days following the snowstorm.

Least: 0.2”, 2005
Most: 26.8”, 2011

<1”: 21% cases
1” or more: 79% cases
2” or more: 71% cases
4” or more: 43% cases
6” or more: 27% cases

Mean: 7.4”
Median: 4.2”

Considering the forecast pattern change, a below median figure is more likely than not. Further, as the ongoing AO-/PNA+ pattern is likely to break down after mid-month, I expect the warmest reading s to occur toward the end of the thaw (probably in the January 20-25 timeframe). Therefore, the limited snowfall opportunities may be confined to the first 10 days.

On the current guidance, there are two possible candidates:  January 8-9 and January 12-13. Neither is assured, but they are possibilities.

Among those cases were two cases where a storm brought 4” or more snow to Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston in December (as occurred during December 9-10, 2017). Both those cases featured a snowy February.

Overall, my thinking that January 2018 could see 10”-15” monthly snowfall and the idea of a snowier than normal, possibly much snowier than normal winter, still appear solidly on the proverbial fairway.

Finally, in the past week, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly warmed from -1.0°C to -0.6°C. It is still a little soon to determine whether the ongoing La Niña event has peaked.

[White Gorilla]

This winter is reminding me so far of a scaled down and drier version of 95-96 with snow and cold  in December and early January and a big storm before a January turn to milder.  

95-96 was also a weak La Nina if I am not mistaken. 

 

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[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You are talking about 2 different things. The 500 mb pattern forecast from the EPS and the general OP Euro storm details. The EPS and Euro monthly forecast from early November for December did very well. The OP Euro since the 12-13 winter has been struggling with the placement of high impact winter storm events near the NE Coast under 120 hrs. The EPS did a nice job identifying the MJO and 500 mb signal for our recent storm. But as I was mentioning in the previous days, the NAM did a better job closer in with the developing convection. The NAM correctly placed the storm closer to the coast instead of jumping the prime convection and storm too far east like the OP Euro. We saw something similar with the January 2016 blizzard and the NAM getting things correct.  

Yes I was talking about the op, the eps has done a bit better.

[LurkerBoy]

Thaw looking more and more legit...any early guesses for how warm we get and duration?

[dmillz25]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning, the temperature fell to 9° in Central Park. That is the 3rd day this winter that the thermometer has fallen below 10°. The last winter with at least as many such days was winter 2014-15 when there were 9, 7 of which occurred in February when most of the region’s water bodies, including the Long Island Sound froze over. Today is also the 10th consecutive day on which the low temperature was below 20°. That is the longest such stretch since February 12-21, 2015 (10 days).  The Arctic Oscillation a preliminary -2.510, the lowest it has been this winter, while the PNA was +0.870. A cluster of ensemble members takes the AO positive after January 15. There is strong consensus among the ensemble members that the PNA will go negative near or after January 15.

As a result, following this weekend, a January thaw will likely unfold. The guidance is in strong agreement about a pattern change.

NYC’s Average Temperature Through:

1/4: 19.9° (13.1° below normal)
1/10: 20.2°-23.2° (1/4 estimate: 20.2°-23.8°)
1/15: 24.7°-28.7° (1/4 estimate: 25.1°-29.5°)
1/20: 25.9°-30.4°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 57% (1/4 estimate: 56%)

Yesterday’s blizzard dumped 4.1” snow at Philadelphia, 9.8” at New York City, and 13.4” in Boston. Since 1950, it was the 16th storm to bring at least 4” snow to each of those three cities. Looking at the first such occurrence in January (2011 and 2014 had two such storms), all 14 cases saw at least some measureable snow in the 20 days following the snowstorm.

Least: 0.2”, 2005
Most: 26.8”, 2011

<1”: 21% cases
1” or more: 79% cases
2” or more: 71% cases
4” or more: 43% cases
6” or more: 27% cases

Mean: 7.4”
Median: 4.2”

Considering the forecast pattern change, a below median figure is more likely than not. Further, as the ongoing AO-/PNA+ pattern is likely to break down after mid-month, I expect the warmest reading s to occur toward the end of the thaw (probably in the January 20-25 timeframe). Therefore, the limited snowfall opportunities may be confined to the first 10 days.

On the current guidance, there are two possible candidates:  January 8-9 and January 12-13. Neither is assured, but they are possibilities.

Among those cases were two cases where a storm brought 4” or more snow to Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston in December (as occurred during December 9-10, 2017). Both those cases featured a snowy February.

Overall, my thinking that January 2018 could see 10”-15” monthly snowfall and the idea of a snowier than normal, possibly much snowier than normal winter, still appear solidly on the proverbial fairway.

Finally, in the past week, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly warmed from -1.0°C to -0.6°C. It is still a little soon to determine whether the ongoing La Niña event has peaked.

You basically hit the snow range already just .2” off

[dmillz25]

13 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Thaw looking more and more legit...any early guesses for how warm we get and duration?

Looks like 2 weeks and it’s needed. 

[MJO812]

Too cold outside

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Thaw looking more and more legit...any early guesses for how warm we get and duration?

Probably January 16-28 at the very least.  Could go into the first week of February.  JB has it going to 2/5.  If you believe the ensembles it’s a more zonal or major El Niño type pattern where the Midwest and plains are warmest and not the east coast. Southern parts of the country on some members are even averaging normal or below so it’s decinitely a zonal signature 

[bluewave]

Looks like Sunday morning will end up being the coldest temperatures of the winter so far around the area as low level CAA peaks around 6z Sunday.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Thaw looking more and more legit...any early guesses for how warm we get and duration?

Right now, my thinking is about 2 weeks followed by perhaps a 1 week transition to a colder pattern (return of the EPO-/AO-/PNA+). The end of the EPS's range and the Week 3 of the Euro weeklies are in good agreement on the overall 500 mb pattern. Usually, beyond 2 weeks, the weekly guidance is little better than a coin flip. However, this time there is agreement with the EPS, so I think through week 3 the guidance is reasonable.

As for peak warmth, I suspect that NYC will likely see 2-4 days with highs in the 50s with the highest temperature probably in the 55°-60° range based on the historical cases with similar patterns. The EPS doesn't extend out to the January 20-25 +/- a few days period where I think the warmest readings are most likely to fall. It's still too soon to be confident whether January 2018 will be the first January since 2016 to have a maximum monthly temperature below 60°.

[White Gorilla]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Right now, my thinking is about 2 weeks followed by perhaps a 1 week transition to a colder pattern (return of the EPO-/AO-/PNA+). The end of the EPS's range and the Week 3 of the Euro weeklies are in good agreement on the overall 500 mb pattern. Usually, beyond 2 weeks, the weekly guidance is little better than a coin flip. However, this time there is agreement with the EPS, so I think through week 3 the guidance is reasonable.

As for peak warmth, I suspect that NYC will likely see 2-4 days with highs in the 50s with the highest temperature probably in the 55°-60° range based on the historical cases with similar patterns. The EPS doesn't extend out to the January 20-25 +/- a few days period where I think the warmest readings are most likely to fall. It's still too soon to be confident whether January 2018 will be the first January since 2016 to have a maximum monthly temperature below 60°.

This will be welcomed by most.  The extreme cold is too much.  Give me 20s and a blizzard like yesterday, or 60s and sunny. 

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

This will be welcomed by most.  The extreme cold is too much.  Give me 20s and a blizzard like yesterday, or 60s and sunny. 

A week from now we may be 40 degrees warmer with rain and major snow/ice melt

[Juliancolton]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Sunday morning will end up being the coldest temperatures of the winter so far around the area as low level CAA peaks around 6z Sunday.

I like my "fake" cold better. Albany has me pegged at -12F Sunday morning, though I typically don't reach forecast lows on windy CAA nights. If by some miracle my spot were sheltered enough to tenuously decouple in that airmass, I'd likely make a run at -20.

[allgame830]

still only 8 degrees... my forecast high is supposed to be 13 degrees.  Do not think it is going to make it there!! Crazy cold outside!!

[ForestHillWx]

4 at the homestead this morning. Winds were the worst part.

The Jersey City Resv is frozen over; I cannot remember the last time it froze shore to shore. The Rockaway river in boonton, off 287N, also has more ice then I recall. Looks like rivers in Vermont. 

The duration of the cold is phenomenal. 

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

A week from now we may be 40 degrees warmer with rain and major snow/ice melt

Or another snowstorm

[JetsPens87]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Or another snowstorm

It’s gonna be a tough sell in this upcoming pattern but who knows. Even bad patterns with a well timed high pressure or transient blocking can find a sneaky way to produce.

[WEATHERBUFF]

20 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

It’s gonna be a tough sell in this upcoming pattern but who knows. Even bad patterns with a well timed high pressure or transient blocking can find a sneaky way to produce.

Location and timing are needed for it.

[Stormlover74]

30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Or another snowstorm

Either way we warm up to at least the upper 40s/low 50s for a time. All of our coldest winter months featured at least one thaw