January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Paragon]

10 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

 

The all-time record high at KPOU is only 103F and 100 at KDXR so that may be a somewhat misremembered phenomenon... lol. Also worth noting that on the day those records were achieved or tied (August 9, 2001), NYC reached 103.

haha possibly, this was back in the early 90s and the temperatures were mentioned on WCBS radio- before the era of the internet or social media.

I wish I could remember exactly what year- but it was one of those hyperhot years- I think it could have been 1991 or 1993.

Funny thing is though that in springtime I sometimes see Poughkeepsie temps shoot up into the 90s while NYC is in the 70s.

There's certain days when POU seems to have the highest temps in the area.

[Paragon]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning’s low temperature in New York City was 16°. That makes today the 8th consecutive day on which the low temperature was below 20°. The last time the temperature fell below 20° for at least 8 days was February 12-21, 2015 (10 consecutive days).

NYC’s Average Temperature Through:

1/2 16.3° (16.8° below normal)
1/10 19.6°-23.8° (1/2 estimate: 20.4°-25.2°)
1/15 23.5°-28.3° (1/1 estimate: 23.3°-28.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 64% (1/2 estimate: 59%)

There remains some possibility that Saturday and/or Sunday morning could have a subzero low temperature in Central Park. The last time the temperature fell below zero in New York City was on February 14, 2016 when the thermometer plunged to -1°. The last winter with more than one subzero low temperature was 1942-43 and the last time there were two consecutive subzero lows was December 20-21, 1942.

In terms of snowfall, the mean figure for the NMB cluster of the SREFS has increased to 7.5" for LGA.

I saw a crazy forecast on TWC just now for a -4 low for NYC lol, that would be amazing!

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Taking into the consideration the latest guidance, including the 18z runs of the 3km and 12 km NAM, I am confident that New York City and nearby areas will experience a moderate to possibly significant snowfall. Blizzard conditions will overspread a portion of Long Island and New England.

My estimates are based largely on a trimmed model mean that excludes the 12z ECMWF, which has been slowly catching up to the other guidance, and the 18z 3 km NAM, which has slowly been moving away from its aggressive amounts toward the other guidance.
Final snowfall estimates:
Atlantic City: 6”-12”
Bangor: 8:”-16”
Bridgeport: 4”-8”
Boston: 8”-14”
Concord: 5”-10”
Hartford: 3”-6”
Islip: 6”-12”
Morristown: 2”-4”
New York City:
…JFK: 5”-10”
…LGA: 4”-8”
…NYC: 4”-8”
Newark: 4”-8”
Oceanside: 5”-10”
Philadelphia: 3”-6”
Portland: 8”-16”
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”
Providence: 6”-12”
Westhampton: 8”-16”
White Plains: 3”-6”
Worcester: 8”-14”

Finally, given the extended guidance, it appears that the current pattern, which is highly conducive to measurable snowfall events relative to climatology will yield to one that is less favorable for such events, especially after January 10. The pattern relaxation will likely last 1-2 weeks.

Storm track must be shifting west, I saw that SE NE is being forecast to change over to rain east of the cape cod canal?

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I saw a crazy forecast on TWC just now for a -4 low for NYC lol, that would be amazing!

I thought that was possible a few days ago now I don’t think so.  The 850s aren’t cold enough and probably not enough or won’t be enough snowpack to the north but -1 or -2 might be 

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I thought that was possible a few days ago now I don’t think so.  The 850s aren’t cold enough and probably not enough or won’t be enough snowpack to the north but -1 or -2 might be 

Yes, the snowpack closer to the coast might be 6+ but not to our north.  Besides lower than -2 hasn't occurred in 2 generation? The 1940s?  How is this airmass going to compare to the ones from Jan 1985 and Jan 1994?  Think we might have a single digit high too?

 

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

On the way into the city for what will likely be a 36 hour shift.

Out where I live, in wantagh there is wall to wall snow coverage still from the last event. Once to the Queens line there is pretty much zero. I believe this is due to the ocean effect snow most of Long Island had at the begging of the last event. Said snow had a higher density and thus better staying power despite totals not all that much higher

Queens is also more urbanized.  Here in SW Nassau we have snow in some nooks and crannies but no wall to wall coverage- haven't had that since the day that 1.5" fell, the sun melted it here the next day but shady areas still have some snow.

 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC’s shot is Saturday morning for sure.  I think we will see some crazy lows Sunday in suburban spots due to the snow pack (although the snow pack will be getting somewhat stale by that point) it still should be crazy cold with that ridge coming overhead.  The 850s aren’t cold enough for typical NYC below 0 reading so the snow pack will have to help out.  I want to say when we went below 0 in 2016 though that the 850s were only -25 to -26 

Any chances that FOK could get to -15 or lower? I've seen it happen in less ideal set ups than this (Feb 2009).  Outside shot at -20 at FOK? 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC’s shot is Saturday morning for sure.  I think we will see some crazy lows Sunday in suburban spots due to the snow pack (although the snow pack will be getting somewhat stale by that point) it still should be crazy cold with that ridge coming overhead.  The 850s aren’t cold enough for typical NYC below 0 reading so the snow pack will have to help out.  I want to say when we went below 0 in 2016 though that the 850s were only -25 to -26 

What's keeping the 850's from being as cold as Jan 1985 or Jan 1994? I thought this was a historically cold airmass, the coldest by far of the season?

[Paragon]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Taking into the consideration the latest guidance, including the 18z runs of the 3km and 12 km NAM, I am confident that New York City and nearby areas will experience a moderate to possibly significant snowfall. Blizzard conditions will overspread a portion of Long Island and New England.

My estimates are based largely on a trimmed model mean that excludes the 12z ECMWF, which has been slowly catching up to the other guidance, and the 18z 3 km NAM, which has slowly been moving away from its aggressive amounts toward the other guidance.
Final snowfall estimates:
Atlantic City: 6”-12”
Bangor: 8:”-16”
Bridgeport: 4”-8”
Boston: 8”-14”
Concord: 5”-10”
Hartford: 3”-6”
Islip: 6”-12”
Morristown: 2”-4”
New York City:
…JFK: 5”-10”
…LGA: 4”-8”
…NYC: 4”-8”
Newark: 4”-8”
Oceanside: 5”-10”
Philadelphia: 3”-6”
Portland: 8”-16”
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”
Providence: 6”-12”
Westhampton: 8”-16”
White Plains: 3”-6”
Worcester: 8”-14”

Finally, given the extended guidance, it appears that the current pattern, which is highly conducive to measurable snowfall events relative to climatology will yield to one that is less favorable for such events, especially after January 10. The pattern relaxation will likely last 1-2 weeks.

Don, fast moving nature of the storm is keeping it from being  a historic event (in the sense of snowfall accumulations.)

But as regarding minimum pressures, is this the lowest winter pressure we've seen up here since March 1993, or is it even lower than that?

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What's keeping the 850's from being as cold as Jan 1985 or Jan 1994? I thought this was a historically cold airmass, the coldest by far of the season?

I would assume source region.  We haven’t seen an arctic outbreak in quite some time with widespread -30 to -35C 850s.  It may be a product of the warm AMO phase 

[Hailstorm]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

I saw a crazy forecast on TWC just now for a -4 low for NYC lol, that would be amazing!

12z EPS has NYC getting down to -8 on Sunday morning, along with a daytime high of 8 on Saturday. That is very impressive for a mean. It never has even moderated the temps on these days as we get closer.

[SnowGoose69]

54 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

12z EPS has NYC getting down to -8 on Sunday morning, along with a daytime high of 8 on Saturday. That is very impressive for a mean. It never has even moderated the temps on these days as we get closer.

It definitely won’t happen Sunday because it’s a radiational cooling scenario that morning.  Saturday morning would be the day.  Sunday morning NYC probably will be 8-9 while most suburbs are below 0 

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It definitely won’t happen Sunday because it’s a radiational cooling scenario that morning.  Saturday morning would be the day.  Sunday morning NYC probably will be 8-9 while most suburbs are below 0 

What are the chances for a single digit high on Saturday?

 

What do you think the chances are greater for....double digit snowfall for NYC or below zero low Saturday morning or a single digit high for Saturday?

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Queens is also more urbanized.  Here in SW Nassau we have snow in some nooks and crannies but no wall to wall coverage- haven't had that since the day that 1.5" fell, the sun melted it here the next day but shady areas still have some snow.

 

We definitly had full coverage in wantagh. There was a notable drop off from Freeport west.

to answer your other question, KFOK will only get super cold Saturday night if winds go calm for an extended period. Then I could see them going -15

[Hailstorm]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It definitely won’t happen Sunday because it’s a radiational cooling scenario that morning.  Saturday morning would be the day.  Sunday morning NYC probably will be 8-9 while most suburbs are below 0 

That's true. But why does the EPS forecast a lower temp on Sunday morning even as the Euro and GFS show the lowest 850 mb temps over our heads on Saturday morning?

I think that NYC will get down to -3 on Saturday morning if we have intense CAA; however, I think that we have a better shot of remaining in the single digits during the day because it seems that NYC has better luck with under-performing on high temps lately, especially if it clouds up.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

That's true. But why does the EPS forecast a lower temp on Sunday morning even as the Euro and GFS show the lowest 850 mb temps over our heads on Saturday morning?

I think that NYC will get down to -3 on Saturday morning if we have intense CAA; however, I think that we have a better shot of remaining in the single digits during the day because it seems that NYC has better luck with under-performing on high temps lately, especially if it clouds up.

The models generally assume NYC radiates well it seems.  MOS guidance generally does well but the raw model numbers often are too low on calm clear nights

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, Paragon said:

haha possibly, this was back in the early 90s and the temperatures were mentioned on WCBS radio- before the era of the internet or social media.

I wish I could remember exactly what year- but it was one of those hyperhot years- I think it could have been 1991 or 1993.

Funny thing is though that in springtime I sometimes see Poughkeepsie temps shoot up into the 90s while NYC is in the 70s.

There's certain days when POU seems to have the highest temps in the area.

Once the land heats up, especially if it's dry, we bake. There is no big moderating influence (Atlantic Ocean  ) once you get past the first significant range of hills around exit 4 on I 684 and north of about Valhalla on the Taconic. 

[72bundy]

Just started snowing in Toms River. Here is a link to my weather cam overlooking the Barnegat Bay.  https://www.pscp.tv/w/bRxbHjF3QkVBcWVYUkJFUHF8MU93eFdNUWdFd1FHUTtLUD6wxYUQcBzQ-iqZlvOF0PAV1XdpiFdt_5-B1Ma3

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, 72bundy said:

Just started snowing in Toms River. Here is a link to my weather cam overlooking the Barnegat Bay.  https://www.pscp.tv/w/bRxbHjF3QkVBcWVYUkJFUHF8MU93eFdNUWdFd1FHUTtLUD6wxYUQcBzQ-iqZlvOF0PAV1XdpiFdt_5-B1Ma3

Fyi there's an obs thread

 

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 21deg., or about 12 or 13degs. BN.

25.2degs with LT./MOD.  SNOW.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, Paragon said:

Don, fast moving nature of the storm is keeping it from being  a historic event (in the sense of snowfall accumulations.)

But as regarding minimum pressures, is this the lowest winter pressure we've seen up here since March 1993, or is it even lower than that?

This storm will be well offshore, so the pressure won't get as low on land as it did during the 1993 superstorm. However, the storm should become more intense if the modeling is accurate. The lowest pressure for the 1993 superstorm was 960 mb.

[LurkerBoy]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This storm will be well offshore, so the pressure won't get as low on land as it did during the 1993 superstorm. However, the storm should become more intense if the modeling is accurate. The lowest pressure for the 1993 superstorm was 960 mb.

THink we big thaw Don?

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

THink we big thaw Don?

I am thinking that we will have a roughly 1-2 week thaw. Initially, a generally persistent PNA+ and some tendency for an AO- should mute the amount of warming. It is possible that the peak warmth associated with the thaw will occur prior to its conclusion (probably sometime in the January 20-25 timeframe). 

[donsutherland1]

Today is New York City's 10th consecutive day on which the temperature has remained below freezing. This is the largest number of consecutive days during which the City remained below freezing since February 9-19, 1979 (11 consecutive days).

NYC’s Average Temperature Through:

1/3 18.5° (14.5° below normal)
1/10 20.2°-23.8° (1/3 estimate: 19.6°-23.8°)
1/15 25.1°-29.5° (1/3 estimate: 23.5°-28.3°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 56% (1/3 estimate: 64%)

The 7.8" snowfall recorded at Central Park as of 1 pm today broke the daily record. The previous record was 4.0", which was set in 1988. Central Park is already above the monthly normal figure of 7.0" snow. Despite the coming thaw, I believe January 2018 has a good chance at finishing with 10"-15" snow. Winter 2017-18 remains solidly on course for above to much above normal snowfall.

[ict1523]

I wonder if the park will be able to drop below 20 by midnight to see if we could keep the sub 20F low streak going. 

[North and West]

I am thinking that we will have a roughly 1-2 week thaw. Initially, a generally persistent PNA+ and some tendency for an AO- should mute the amount of warming. It is possible that the peak warmth associated with the thaw will occur prior to its conclusion (probably sometime in the January 20-25 timeframe). 

Any idea on next week, regarding Monday? I wasn’t on the board much today after work and shoveling. Thanks!


.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Any idea on next week, regarding Monday? I wasn’t on the board much today after work and shoveling. Thanks!


.

I believe there’s a reasonable chance that the City could see a small accumulation of snow and a possibility that its distant northern and western suburbs could pick up a few inches if things work out.

[North and West]

I believe there’s a reasonable chance that the City could see a small accumulation of snow and a possibility that its distant northern and western suburbs could pick up a few inches if things work out.

Thank you!


.

[Morris]

Cheap midnight low for Thursday and cheap midnight high for Friday.

[Rtd208]

Current temp is down to 14 here.