Paragon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was New York City’s 8th consecutive subfreezing day. That’s the longest such stretch since a 9-day period running from January 16-24, 2005. Further, the 12/27/2017-1/2/2017 period has had a 7-day mean temperature of just 17.0°. That’s NYC’s coldest 7-day period since January 16-22, 1994 when the temperature averaged just 15.3°. At this time, given the slow convergence of the guidance (mesoscale models shifting somewhat eastward with the precipitation shield and global models. With the 18z GFS now moving into somewhat better agreement with the other guidance, my confidence concerning the storm has increased to moderate. My thinking is that eastern Long Island across eastern New England will likely experience a high-impact snowstorm. Blizzard conditions are likely. Across this area, 6” or more snow is very likely. 10” or more is likely. The high winds will produce near zero visibility and considerable blowing and drifting. For those areas, this is not a storm to be minimized. If everything comes together, it could be among the area’s most ferocious blizzards in the last decade, even as it might not produce the highest snowfall amounts. In terms of ratios, my guess is that near NYC and westward could see 12:1 ratios. Suffolk County could see 9:1-10:1 ratios due to very high winds. It should be noted that there remains above normal uncertainty. Larger than usual revisions could still be needed. Preliminary snowfall estimates: Atlantic City: 2”-4” Bangor: 8:”-16” Bridgeport: 2”-4” Boston: 8”-14” Concord: 4”-8” Hartford: 2”-4” Islip: 4”-8” Morristown: 1”-3” New York City: 2”-4” Newark: 2”-4” Philadelphia: 1”-3” Portland: 8”-16” Poughkeepsie: 1”-3” Providence: 6”-12” Westhampton: 6”-12” White Plains: 1”-3” Worcester: 6”-12” In my opinion, there remains about a 25% probability that NYC will receive 4” or more snow and a 10% probability that the City will pick up 6” or more snow. Behind the storm, and extremely cold air mass will blast into the region. Most locations, and possibly Central Park, could experience at least one subzero low temperature. Warming is likely to occur Most of our local forecasters are predicting 3-6" for the city and Nassau county. They have 6-12" starting right at the Nassau/Suffolk border and said that line has potential to move west (Lee Goldberg). I noticed you left out Nassau in your prediction Don, what say you for JFK and points just east of there like Oceanside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Winter is going to sleep after the 13th it seems. Euro even develops a strong eastern ridge in the LR. Next couple systems will be mostly rain events and then the big thaw will arrive. The upcoming system will be our last chance at snow for a while.That seems normal, though. I remember a spat of records highs in 1994. Just seems like the usual cycle of things.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 hours ago, gravitylover said: Just for reference - If you haven't seen the DXR site it sits right at the base of a few large hills to its east and south with a gradual rise to the north. There is an open corridor running basically E/W so if there is a breeze oriented from those directions it scours the valley out and a NW breeze will moderate the temp at the site pretty easily. On still or nearly still nights the hollow the airport sits in does get really cold compared to much of the rest of the area. Is there something about Danbury and Poughkeepsie that makes them so hot sometimes when the city isn't in the summer? I distinctly remember both hitting 106 degrees when the city was in the low 90s on a south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Paragon said: Most of our local forecasters are predicting 3-6" for the city and Nassau county. They have 6-12" starting right at the Nassau/Suffolk border and said that line has potential to move west (Lee Goldberg). I noticed you left out Nassau in your prediction Don, what say you for JFK and points just east of there like Oceanside? My initial thinking yesterday was 3”-6” for Nassau. I will post my thinking after the 12z guidance today. That both the 3 km and 12 km NAM now show a major snowstorm throughout the region has increased the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 ...KFOK now @ 5* ...even i dropped to 6*...dropped about 3* since 530am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 24degs., or about 9 or 10degs. BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Today is the "warm" day. Low of 10 in Newark, 14 in JFK, 16 in the park, 17 in LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My temp dropped as well..down to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Chilliest part of the morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Is there something about Danbury and Poughkeepsie that makes them so hot sometimes when the city isn't in the summer? I distinctly remember both hitting 106 degrees when the city was in the low 90s on a south wind. Being away from the cooling influence of the ocean makes quite a difference. My house is on an E/ESE exposure, almost at the top of a large cluster of hills, so is open to those summertime southerly breezes and the temp will be 5-10* cooler than 2 miles away below the northern end of this range of hills. DXR being shielded from southerly breezes by that range of hills I mentioned experiences a similar situation for that station. If you look at the Brewster Mesonet station you'll see a pretty different scenario and it is pretty close, just a few miles away, but is exposed on a hilltop. KPOU I'm not sure other than the fact that it's on a wide open plain and well above the river corridor. @Juliancolton might have more insight as it's his local station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This morning’s low temperature in New York City was 16°. That makes today the 8th consecutive day on which the low temperature was below 20°. The last time the temperature fell below 20° for at least 8 days was February 12-21, 2015 (10 consecutive days). NYC’s Average Temperature Through: 1/2 16.3° (16.8° below normal) 1/10 19.6°-23.8° (1/2 estimate: 20.4°-25.2°) 1/15 23.5°-28.3° (1/1 estimate: 23.3°-28.5°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 64% (1/2 estimate: 59%) There remains some possibility that Saturday and/or Sunday morning could have a subzero low temperature in Central Park. The last time the temperature fell below zero in New York City was on February 14, 2016 when the thermometer plunged to -1°. The last winter with more than one subzero low temperature was 1942-43 and the last time there were two consecutive subzero lows was December 20-21, 1942. In terms of snowfall, the mean figure for the NMB cluster of the SREFS has increased to 7.5" for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Does anyone have the updated EPO index forecast? It has not been updated on ESRL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Paragon said: Is there something about Danbury and Poughkeepsie that makes them so hot sometimes when the city isn't in the summer? I distinctly remember both hitting 106 degrees when the city was in the low 90s on a south wind. 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Being away from the cooling influence of the ocean makes quite a difference. My house is on an E/ESE exposure, almost at the top of a large cluster of hills, so is open to those summertime southerly breezes and the temp will be 5-10* cooler than 2 miles away below the northern end of this range of hills. DXR being shielded from southerly breezes by that range of hills I mentioned experiences a similar situation for that station. If you look at the Brewster Mesonet station you'll see a pretty different scenario and it is pretty close, just a few miles away, but is exposed on a hilltop. KPOU I'm not sure other than the fact that it's on a wide open plain and well above the river corridor. @Juliancolton might have more insight as it's his local station. The all-time record high at KPOU is only 103F and 100 at KDXR so that may be a somewhat misremembered phenomenon... lol. Also worth noting that on the day those records were achieved or tied (August 9, 2001), NYC reached 103. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any snow chances next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Does anyone have the updated EPO index forecast? It has not been updated on ESRL. It is forecast to be near neutral until around the 10th and then go positive afterward. That will probably coincide with a 1-2 week thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It is forecast to be near neutral until around the 10th and then go positive afterward. That will probably coincide with a 1-2 week thaw. Thanks Don. Although I love the snow I could use the break, and so could my boiler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thanks Don. Although I love the snow I could use the break, and so could my boiler.Agreed. Willing to pay more on my gas bill for a few weeks so to avoid a broken pipe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mid 20's and sun today. It doesn't even feel that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro has temps well below 0 for everyone Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Major ice storm on the 12z ECM for Mon-Tue I95 N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Major ice storm on the 12z ECM for Mon-Tue I95 N&W As long as we’re clear on the 12th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On the way into the city for what will likely be a 36 hour shift. Out where I live, in wantagh there is wall to wall snow coverage still from the last event. Once to the Queens line there is pretty much zero. I believe this is due to the ocean effect snow most of Long Island had at the begging of the last event. Said snow had a higher density and thus better staying power despite totals not all that much higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 -10 on the Euro Sunday morning. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Taking into the consideration the latest guidance, including the 18z runs of the 3km and 12 km NAM, I am confident that New York City and nearby areas will experience a moderate to possibly significant snowfall. Blizzard conditions will overspread a portion of Long Island and New England. My estimates are based largely on a trimmed model mean that excludes the 12z ECMWF, which has been slowly catching up to the other guidance, and the 18z 3 km NAM, which has slowly been moving away from its aggressive amounts toward the other guidance. Final snowfall estimates: Atlantic City: 6”-12” Bangor: 8:”-16” Bridgeport: 4”-8” Boston: 8”-14” Concord: 5”-10” Hartford: 3”-6” Islip: 6”-12” Morristown: 2”-4” New York City: …JFK: 5”-10” …LGA: 4”-8” …NYC: 4”-8” Newark: 4”-8” Oceanside: 5”-10” Philadelphia: 3”-6” Portland: 8”-16” Poughkeepsie: 2”-4” Providence: 6”-12” Westhampton: 8”-16” White Plains: 3”-6” Worcester: 8”-14” Finally, given the extended guidance, it appears that the current pattern, which is highly conducive to measurable snowfall events relative to climatology will yield to one that is less favorable for such events, especially after January 10. The pattern relaxation will likely last 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All local stations stayed below freezing today. Streak gets longer by 5 days, Wednesday through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Taking into the consideration the latest guidance, including the 18z runs of the 3km and 12 km NAM, I am confident that New York City and nearby areas will experience a moderate to possibly significant snowfall. Blizzard conditions will overspread a portion of Long Island and New England. My estimates are based largely on a trimmed model mean that excludes the 12z ECMWF, which has been slowly catching up to the other guidance, and the 18z 3 km NAM, which has slowly been moving away from its aggressive amounts toward the other guidance. Final snowfall estimates: Atlantic City: 6”-12” Bangor: 8:”-16” Bridgeport: 4”-8” Boston: 8”-14” Concord: 5”-10” Hartford: 3”-6” Islip: 6”-12” Morristown: 2”-4” New York City: …JFK: 5”-10” …LGA: 4”-8” …NYC: 4”-8” Newark: 4”-8” Oceanside: 5”-10” Philadelphia: 3”-6” Portland: 8”-16” Poughkeepsie: 2”-4” Providence: 6”-12” Westhampton: 8”-16” White Plains: 3”-6” Worcester: 8”-14” Finally, given the extended guidance, it appears that the current pattern, which is highly conducive to measurable snowfall events relative to climatology will yield to one that is less favorable for such events, especially after January 10. The pattern relaxation will likely last 1-2 weeks. Love your language. Always balanced, measured and scientific, never hyped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Love your language. Always balanced, measured and scientific, never hyped. Thanks for the kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=REDF now those are snow depths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thanks for the kind words.I like that it doesn’t get lost in the storm thread. As long as my kids have enough to shovel, I’m happy. They were overwhelmed by last March here. The smaller events are great.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro has temps well below 0 for everyone Sunday morning NYC’s shot is Saturday morning for sure. I think we will see some crazy lows Sunday in suburban spots due to the snow pack (although the snow pack will be getting somewhat stale by that point) it still should be crazy cold with that ridge coming overhead. The 850s aren’t cold enough for typical NYC below 0 reading so the snow pack will have to help out. I want to say when we went below 0 in 2016 though that the 850s were only -25 to -26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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