January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Just now, WEATHERBUFF said:

Maybe we should go by 20 year averages given the fact the climate is changing pretty fast at least here in the east, I do hope it stops!

30-year figures are used to create a sample that resembles a normal distribution. However, in the era of climate change-induced warming, the baseline can cease to become representative over shorter timeframes.

[The Plowsman]

We will head into phase 8 then 1 during the coldest part of the year with Canada frigid so there's no lag.
We will turn colder in phase 7 and that should show you what's waiting to come S.
If we can extend that into 2 and 3 we can run the BN regime into early March.
Let's get into 8 and 1 first , I think FEB has a very cold period in it and is another BN month.

Got it

[gravitylover]

23 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Yup, that's the one. I love it there, it's like a secluded recreation hub in all seasons. 

Agreed and there is actually legal tent camping there as well. One of the very few spots other than Fahnestock in the whole area.

[jm1220]

So far no complaints about this winter at all here. Had a nearly crippling blizzard to start the month, brutal cold and fairly long lasting snow cover. The thaw is a downer but all winters have them. Hopefully Part 2 in Feb is worthwhile. Another 10” and I’ll be decently above average for the season. I’m currently at 22.6”

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.32" of rain for the day. 

[CIK62]

Final 3 days of the month averaging 34degs., or 1deg. AN.  (used 33/44 for today)

Month to date is just  -0.80.  Should end Jan. @  -0.61.

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs. overall, or 2degs. BN/

[donsutherland1]

The warmest anomalies of the January thaw are now behind us. The remaining days of January will see readings descend toward normal by the end of the month.

Some locations, especially those in New Jersey and on Long Island with the largest monthly snowfall anomalies to date, could see an increase in their monthly snowfall figures before January concludes. A period of light snow or flurries appears possible for parts of the region tonight into tomorrow. NYC and nearby areas could receive a coating to perhaps 0.5” snow. An area running northeastward from southern New Jersey, across central Long Island, and into eastern Connecticut would appear to have the highest probability of seeing an inch to locally two inches of snow. A moderate snowfall is possible on Cape Cod.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/28: 31.6° (0.8° below normal)
1/31: 31.8°-32.1° (1/28 estimate: 31.4°-32.0°)

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 91% (1/28 estimate: 79%)

[bluewave]

This January is more about the range of extremes than what the final departure ends up at. In the 2010's tradition, the extremes stole the show yet again.

 

2nd coldest 1st week of January in NYC at 16.4 degrees

First 950 mb blizzard we are aware of in recent times near the BM

5th heaviest snowstorm during January at ISP with 16.0"

One of the heaviest January rainstorms on record for Southern CT with a 3.64" max reported

New Jan PWAT record OKX

New 500 mb height WAR(Western Atlantic Ridge) to our east for January

3rd greatest number of 55 degree or greater days at Newark in January at 6 days

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This January is more about the range of extremes than what the final departure ends up at. In the 2010's tradition, the extremes stole the show yet again.

 

2nd coldest 1st week of January in NYC at 16.4 degrees

First 950 mb blizzard we are aware of in recent times near the BM

5th heaviest snowstorm during January at ISP with 16.0"

One of the heaviest January rainstorms on record for Southern CT with a 3.64" max reported

New Jan PWAT record OKX

New 500 mb height WAR(Western Atlantic Ridge) to our east for January

3rd greatest number of 55 degree or greater days at Newark in January at 6 days

Did we have more record highs or lows this month around the NYC area?

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Did we have more record highs or lows this month around the NYC area?

Here's how select sites fared in terms of record-tying and record-breaking temperatures (1/1-28/2018):
Bridgeport:

Record High Temperatures:
1/12 55° (tied record, 2017)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 17° (old record: 21°, 1963)
1/5 22° (old record: 24°, 1988 and 1996)
1/6 13° (old record: 18°, 1996)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/23 40° (tied record, 1969)
1/28 39° (old record: 38°, 1974)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 2° (old record: 5°, 1963)
1/7 -2° (old record: 7°, 1988)

Islip:

Record High Temperatures:
1/12 58° (tied record, 1995)
1/20 56° (tied record, 2013)
1/23 58° (old record: 55°, 1973 and 1999)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 17° (old record: 25°, 1970 and 2009)
1/6 12° (old record: 17°, 1996)
1/7 19° (tied record, 1988)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/12 47° (tied record, 2017)
1/28 40° (old record: 37°, 1990)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 6° (old record 8°, 1968)
1/7 2° (old record 6°, 1968)

JFK:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 18° (old record: 27°, 1963 and 1977)
1/5 19° (old record: 20°, 1968)
1/6 14° (old record 20°, 1996)
1/7 18° (old record: 20°, 2014)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/28 42° (tied record, 1974)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 7° (old record: 9°, 1968)
1/5 9° (old record: 11°, 1979 and 1996)
1/6 7° (old record: 9°, 1988 and 1996)
1/7 4° (old record: 6°, 2014)

LGA:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 19° (old record: 24°, 1940)
1/5 20° (old record: 22°, 1968)
1/6 15° (old record 19°, 1942)
1/7 18° (old record: 20°, 2014)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/21 42° (old record: 41°, 2017)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 8° (old record: 11°, 1963)
1/6 8° (tied record, 1996)

NYC:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
None

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
None

Record Low Temperatures:
None

Newark:

Record High Temperatures:
1/23 62° (tied record set in 1933 and 1957)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 20° (old record: 24°, 1940)
1/5 18° (old record: 22°, 1968)
1/6 14° (old record 20°, 1996)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
None

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 6° (old record: 11°, 1963 and 1997)
1/6 6° (tied record, 1996)

Poughkeepsie:

Record High Temperatures:
1/12 62° old record: 58°, 1980)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 16° (old record: 18°, 1970)
1/6 12° (tied record set in 1945)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/12 46° (old record: 40°, 2017)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 -10° (old record: -9°, 1968)
1/7 -14° (old record: -13°, 1996)

 

[donsutherland1]

Today is the 60th day of meteorological winter. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) value was +0.579. A year ago, the AO stood at +1.741.

Below is a table that provides a comparison between this winter and last winter:

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's how select sites fared in terms of record-tying and record-breaking temperatures (1/1-28/2018):
Bridgeport:

Record High Temperatures:
1/12 55° (tied record, 2017)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 17° (old record: 21°, 1963)
1/5 22° (old record: 24°, 1988 and 1996)
1/6 13° (old record: 18°, 1996)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/23 40° (tied record, 1969)
1/28 39° (old record: 38°, 1974)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 2° (old record: 5°, 1963)
1/7 -2° (old record: 7°, 1988)

Islip:

Record High Temperatures:
1/12 58° (tied record, 1995)
1/20 56° (tied record, 2013)
1/23 58° (old record: 55°, 1973 and 1999)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 17° (old record: 25°, 1970 and 2009)
1/6 12° (old record: 17°, 1996)
1/7 19° (tied record, 1988)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/12 47° (tied record, 2017)
1/28 40° (old record: 37°, 1990)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 6° (old record 8°, 1968)
1/7 2° (old record 6°, 1968)

JFK:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 18° (old record: 27°, 1963 and 1977)
1/5 19° (old record: 20°, 1968)
1/6 14° (old record 20°, 1996)
1/7 18° (old record: 20°, 2014)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/28 42° (tied record, 1974)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 7° (old record: 9°, 1968)
1/5 9° (old record: 11°, 1979 and 1996)
1/6 7° (old record: 9°, 1988 and 1996)
1/7 4° (old record: 6°, 2014)

LGA:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 19° (old record: 24°, 1940)
1/5 20° (old record: 22°, 1968)
1/6 15° (old record 19°, 1942)
1/7 18° (old record: 20°, 2014)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/21 42° (old record: 41°, 2017)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 8° (old record: 11°, 1963)
1/6 8° (tied record, 1996)

NYC:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
None

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
None

Record Low Temperatures:
None

Newark:

Record High Temperatures:
1/23 62° (tied record set in 1933 and 1957)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 20° (old record: 24°, 1940)
1/5 18° (old record: 22°, 1968)
1/6 14° (old record 20°, 1996)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
None

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 6° (old record: 11°, 1963 and 1997)
1/6 6° (tied record, 1996)

Poughkeepsie:

Record High Temperatures:
1/12 62° old record: 58°, 1980)

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
1/1 16° (old record: 18°, 1970)
1/6 12° (tied record set in 1945)

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
1/12 46° (old record: 40°, 2017)

Record Low Temperatures:
1/1 -10° (old record: -9°, 1968)
1/7 -14° (old record: -13°, 1996)

 

NYC:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
None

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
None

Record Low Temperatures:
None

Thats crazy.....

[dWave]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

NYC:

Record High Temperatures:
None

Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
None

Highest Minimum Temperatures:
None

Record Low Temperatures:
None

Thats crazy.....

Central Park record lows are the safest records around. They go back so far and the include a time when alot of present day NYC was basically rural/farmland as opppsed to the huge UHI of today.  Some of those sub zero records from 100+ yrs ago are almost untouchable. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

New City here,,,a couple of flakes in the air but according to the Radar it should be snowing right now

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Light snow in wantagh. 36

[NorthShoreWx]

It's been snowing lightly for a couple of hours here.  We've got a coating on the lawn and the temp is 32.

[Snowshack]

19 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's been snowing lightly for a couple of hours here.  We've got a coating on the lawn and the temp is 32.

33f here with a coating on colder surfaces and light snow as well. B

[Mophstymeo]

Some flakes flying in western Nassau.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Nice flakes here now. Nice to be home for a snow event for once. Hoping for a Long Island special tonight 

[MJO812]

HRRR has an inch or two for the island

[NorthShoreWx]

Solid coating on the grass; not quite half an inch, and it is starting to coat the pavement.  Temp is down to 30.

[NorthShoreWx]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice flakes here now. Nice to be home for a snow event for once. Hoping for a Long Island special tonight 

Hot off the presses:

 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Hot off the presses:

 

Looks similar here. You might beat me with this one. Some nice precip off the jersey shore may clip us later. 

[MJO812]

Snowing here in Brooklyn , NY

[Rtd208]

Light snow falling here, temp 37

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Snow picking up in intensity down here in Marlboro.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Light snow and 31

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Based  on the banding setting up I think the island needs a WWA

[The Plowsman]

 

 

 

 

 

[terrapin8100]

Light snow in Yonkers with a coating on the grass and cartops. More than I was expecting here, though the short range models have been edging up all night. The Island should do well with this.